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After last night's party, Israeli political leaders are back to the grim reality of the ongoing corruption investigation that threatens to bring down Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.  A police gag order on  the investigation will be lifted this evening, allowing the the Israeli media to finally report on the full details of the case.

The New York Post revealed last week that Olmert is being investigated for money he may have received as mayor of Jerusalem during the 1990s from a Long Island businessman named Morris Talansky. Israeli media outlets are still barred from publishing Talansky's name or any other details of the case, though the easy availability of foreign news sources in Israel has made the blackout somewhat ridiculous. The ongoing confusion over Olmert's legal status has also made further peace negotiations next to impossible.

Watch this space as more details are revealed.

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At sundown tonight, Israel began celebrating its 60th anniversary. Though continuing violence in the Palestinian territories and political corruption scandals in the Knesset have left many Israelis feeling a bit cynical about the event, Israel's 60th brithday is nonetheless a remarkable milestone for a country whose very existence has been in peril more times than its citizens would like to recall.

Today, Israel doesn't face the same existential threats it once did, but that doesn't diminish the challenges and dangers it must still confront. As Israeli journalist Gershom Gorenberg writes:

At 60, Israel is neither a perfect democracy, nor a Jewish ghetto imperiled by Iranian Nazis, nor a puppet master indirectly controlling Washington. It is more democratic than its neighbors, more reliably pro-Western, and more successful economically and militarily. Nonetheless, it faces the classic dilemmas of a nation-state dealing with minorities, borders, and neighbors. In other words, it is best understood as a real place, not a country of myth.

For more on Israel's history and uncertain future, check out Gorenberg's cover story "Think Again: Israel" from the most recent issue of FP. You can also explore more of the country's turbulent history in the photo essay, "Israel at 60."

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KIBBUTZ BE'ERI, ISRAEL - APRIL 30: Seen from the cab of a combine harvester, an Israeli army armored personnel carrier (APC) secures the border with the Gaza Strip as Israeli farmers bring in the wheat crop near Kibbutz Be'eri in southern Israel. As grain prices reach record levels, Israeli farmers are expanding the area under wheat cultivation, right up to the border fence with the Hamas-controlled territory.

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Professor Bernard Sabella of Bethlehem University came to Georgetown Wednesday to speak about the decline of the Palestinian Christian population in the Holy Land. It's a group whose unique role as bridge-builders, particularly between the West and the Palestinian Muslims, is increasingly at risk.

Palestinian Christians number somewhere near 50,000, making up less than 2 percent of the population. In Jerusalem alone, the population has gone from 30,000 in 1945 to at most 8,000 today.

As a sociologist, Sabella conducts surveys to discover why Palestinian Christians are emigrating. His results suggest economic and political rather than religious reasons, though 8 percent of respondents say religious fanaticism could be a contributing factor to seeking a life elsewhere. Jews and Muslims are leaving for the same reasons.

Sabella, who has served in the Palestinian legislature, also weighed in on the political situation. The way he sees it, the peace process has reached a critical juncture. If it doesn't succeed by the end of the year, he expects escalating confrontation on Palestinian streets and the election of hardliner Benjamin Netanyahu as Israeli prime minister.

The implications of failure, he says, are serious:

If the political and economic situation doesn't improve, then we are going to lose our youngest and brightest brains."

Dog bites man. A Commentary magazine blogger slams Jimmy Carter for meeting with Hamas leaders.

But there's more. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) says it turned down a meeting request from Carter, whom the terrorist group accused of "carrying an American-Israeli agenda." (Funny, most of Carter's critics would say he's carrying water for the Palestinians.) Commentary's Eric Trager says the incident "should finally shatter Carter's credibility as a peacemaker." He explains:

While PIJ shares many of Hamas' militant features–including its coordination of terrorist activities, calls for Israel's destruction, and theocratic aims–PIJ lacks Hamas' social and political significance. It does not have the social welfare network on which Hamas has built its popularity, while PIJ's refusal to participate in the 2006 parliamentary elections points to its minimal public authority among Palestinians.

There are many valid reasons to meet with Hamas, most notably because no peace process can possibly succeed if the Islamist movement is outside the tent trying to blow it up. Carter is right about that, and many Israelis know it. But if it's true that the former U.S. president wanted to meet with the odious PIJ as well, then it shows he hasn't learned a whole lot about politics in his 83 years. To say the least.

This is sure to provide fodder for conspiracy theorists in the Middle East:

The Israeli newspaper Ma'ariv on Wednesday reported that Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu told an audience at Bar Ilan university that the September 11, 2001 terror attacks had been beneficial for Israel.

"We are benefiting from one thing, and that is the attack on the Twin Towers and Pentagon, and the American struggle in Iraq," Ma'ariv quoted the former prime minister as saying. He reportedly added that these events "swung American public opinion in our favor."

It amazes me that despite the fact that Osama bin Laden has admitted multiple times that he ordered the September 11th attacks, there are still plenty of people -- especially in Arab countries -- who believe otherwise. Netanyahu just gave those folks a huge gift.

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For the first time ever, a female Muslim Arab soldier has joined an elite Israeli Air Force unit. Upon completing a medic training course with top honors, she became part of the Airborne Combat Search and Rescue Unit 669, a premier unit that extricates wounded soldiers from combat zones in sensitive and highly classified operations.

Unlike Jewish young adults, most Arab Israelis are not required to serve in the military, but this soldier, from an Arab village in northern Israel, volunteered to serve. But Muslims and Arabs are prevented from serving in the elite Unit 669, which requires an extremely high security clearance, due to fears about conflicting loyalties should they have to serve in Palestinian areas or fight Muslim countries. So how did she get in? An investigation revealed that an error was made, although news reports have not described the nature of the error or who made it. (My hunch is that those details are confidential.)

Nonetheless, the unit's commander has been so impressed with the woman's exceptional ability that he is allowing her to stay. Although some on the Internet say she may end up betraying her unit, it may be that in this case an error ended up yielding the correct outcome -- letting in a talented, loyal soldier.

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Israel will celebrate its 60th anniversary on May 8, but a few gray clouds are already gathering over an otherwise euphoric national holiday. The New York Times yesterday highlighted a noticeable strain of cynicism among Israeli citizens as the date approaches.

For example, a recent poll asking people who they want as next prime minister produced a majority response of "none of the above," and a petition against wasting money on anniversary "festivities whose primary purpose is to give a stage to the politicians" gained surprising popularity. The theme of the festivities is "Strengthening Israel's Children" but a recent study shows that one in three children lives in poverty. Coupled with school strikes and ongoing frustration over the security situation, Israelis are having a hard time mustering up much enthusiasm.

Recent polls show a majority of Israelis favor a modest celebration so that money can be used in other areas like health and education. The anniversary plans reflect this in part by focusing on more lasting investments: a cross-country bike trail, completion of a Sea of Galilee footpath, and maintenance of memorials that will involve the country's youth. There will still be typical national celebration staples like light shows, beach parties, and military displays.

Sever Plocker with Yediot Aharonot said:

Have we gone mad?...Has something gone wrong with our collective mind? The State of Israel is about to mark 60 years of independence in an atmosphere of bitterness, depression and public reluctance 'to waste the money on celebrations.'"

While I agree that politicians shouldn't hijack the occasion for their gain, it doesn't seem right for people to take the wind out of the national sails just because they want to gripe.  It's a national day -- why not act like it and show some pride?

Richard Falk (Photo: CEM TURKEL/AFP/Getty Images)

I feel about human-rights violations the way U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart felt about porn. Forget all the moral parsing and conflict resolution jargon -- you just know them when you see them.

That's why it's always puzzled me that the United Nations Human Rights Council has such trouble when it comes to calling a spade a spade. For decades, the old U.N. Human Rights Commission was the laughing stock of the international community for packing its membership with notorious human-rights abusers. When the U.N. reorganized the body as the Human Rights Council in 2006, things were supposed to change. Secretary-General Kofi Annan declared, "The Council's work must mark a clean break from the past."

But that's hardly been the case. First, the Council granted seats to such human-rights abusers as Azerbaijan, China, Cuba, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. Then it passed eight resolutions condemning Israel and spoke out against the "defamation of religion" (read: cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed unfavorably), while dropping inquiries into the worsening human-rights conditions in places such as Iran and Uzbekistan.

Now comes news that the Human Rights Council has appointed Princeton University Professor Richard Falk to a six-year term as the special investigator into Israel's actions in the Palestinian Territories. I've got nothing against appointing an investigator to keep tabs on this issue per se. But Falk? This is a guy who defended disgraced University of Colorado Professor Ward Churchill as "having made major contributions" to academia after Churchill called the innocent victims of the Twin Towers "little Eichemanns," arguing that they had deserved to die on 9/11. And how, by any reasonable standard, can Falk be considered an impartial observer on Israel-Palestine? This was Falk writing in an article entitled "Slouching Toward a Palestinian Holocaust" last June:

Is it an irresponsible overstatement to associate the treatment of Palestinians with this criminalized Nazi record of collective atrocity? I think not."

Surely there were better candidates out there.

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What's one of the latest products to be outsourced to China? The kaffiyeh, the black-and-white checkered scarf popularized as a symbol of Palestinian identity and unity by late leader Yasir Arafat. In the last eight years, two thirds of Hebron's textile factories have shut down, in part due to cheap imports from the Middle Kingdom. Even Arafat's Fatah party now gets some of its kaffiyehs from China.

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John McCain earned himself headlines in Israel today when he said, "I support Jerusalem as the capital of Israel."

Professing support for Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, though it is not internationally recognized as such, has become a time-honored political tradition for U.S. presidents and would-be presidents. Since the Jerusalem Embassy Act passed Congress in 1995, moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem has been the official policy of the United States. And yet, every six months, the president signs a waiver that says, "[My] Administration remains committed to beginning the process of moving our embassy to Jerusalem." It never happens, for the obvious reason that the move would cause an uproar in the Arab world. Last year, El Salvador and Costa Rica became the last coutries to move their embassies to Tel Aviv, even though the Knesset and the prime minister's offices are located an hour's drive away in Jerusalem. I doubt a President McCain would upend the status quo, notwithstanding his suggestive comments today.

Last month, pro-Palestinians, who hope Jerusalem will be the capital of a future Palestinian state, were angered when the board game Monopoly listed "Jerusalem, Israel," as a candidate city for its world edition. Recently, though, the controversy went the other way around at Facebook, the social-networking site.

Jewish settlers living in the occupied West Bank, in places such as Maale Adumin and Ariel, were angered when Facebook automatically listed their hometowns as being located in Palestine. Facebook heard their outcry, however, and now residents in Israeli West Bank settlements can choose between with Israel and Palestine.

Of course, opposing Facebook groups are now looking for members. The group "ITS [sic] NOT 'PALESTINE'- IT'S 'ISRAEL'" has nearly 14,000 members, while the group "If Palestine is removed from Facebook... Im [sic] closing my account." has around 4,600 members.

It all goes to show that on the Web, nobody has a monopoly on outrage.

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Does Adm. William J. Fallon's resignation mean the United States is closer to a war with Iran? The White House has called that suggestion "just ridiculous." But it's still what everyone seems to be asking today. Over at the Washington Post, Dan Froomkin concludes, "It's still not really beyond Bush and Cheney to order a full-scale preemptive attack on Iran." Meanwhile, Terry Atlas at U.S. News offers up "6 Signs the U.S. May Be Headed for War In Iran." And on Capitol Hill, Republican U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel said he was, "very concerned to see [Fallon] go."

Given the military realities at the moment, Froomkin's suggestion that "full-scale" war against Iran is possible seems a little off to me. When Foreign Policy recently surveyed more than 3,400 retired and active duty officers at the highest levels of command, 80 percent told us that it was "unreasonable" to believe that, given current deployments, the U.S. could engage in another major combat operation at this time. And the officers put America's preparedness for war against Iran at just 4.5 on a 10-point scale, where 10 meant the U.S. was fully prepared for such a mission.

Atlas's "6 Signs" taken as a whole and in the context of regional events don't worry me too much. Still, Fallon's departure may point to trouble, particularly in light a just-released assessment by the Israeli intelligence community, summarized today in a piece by TNR's Yossi Klein Halevi:

According to a just-released strategic assessment by the Israeli intelligence community, 2008 will be the 'Year of Iran.' The Lebanese government, warns the assessment, could collapse in the coming months, allowing Hezbollah to take power. Meanwhile, Hezbollah and Hamas are considering a coordinated rocket assault on Israeli population centers, almost all of which are within rocket range of either group. And, according to the strategic assessment, sometime within the coming year, or by early 2009 at the latest, Iran will achieve nuclear capability. The threat that emerges from the intelligence assessment may well be the most acute that Israel has ever faced."

With Dick Cheney departing for the Middle East next week, this assessment is worrisome. Israeli President Shimon Peres recently said that the Israelis would not consider unilateral action against Iran. But they would likely leap at the chance to conduct coordinated strikes with the U.S. And Cheney's ear is reportedly sympathetic to the argument that diplomacy with Iran is futile. "Full-scale" war with Iran is probably militarily out at this stage, but strikes conducted by air and sea -- with the Navy taking the lead -- are still a very real possibility before the Bush administration is through. And that does make Admiral Fallon's departure worthy of concern.

It looks like Egypt's backroom efforts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas are breaking down. Today, Hamas publicly laid out its terms for a deal, which Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak appeared to swiftly reject, warning, "Continued combat in Gaza will bring an escalation beyond what we have seen so far, before we reach a period of calm." The rocket fire has been quiet the past few days as negotiations proceeded, but it looks like they are set to resume in earnest again. "We are not in a state of calm with Hamas, we are in ongoing activity meant to stop Kassam fire," Barak said. No wonder former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who is supposed to be helping solve this mess, is fleeing to Yale instead.

In a new Web exclusive for FP, former Israeli deputy national security advisor Chuck Freilich looks at Israel's options for stopping the rockets, and find that they range from bad to worse. Check out Freilich's article, "Six Ways Not to Deal with Hamas," and post your thoughts in the comments section below.

A few commenters asked why, in yesterday's post about Mahmoud Abbas, I didn't note that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert may have his own political reasons (i.e., the rockets) for not wanting to negotiate with the Palestinians right now. My answer: It's different, since Abbas is clearly not responsible for Hamas's rocket fire, yet Olmert is responsible for the decision to send the IDF into Gaza. In any case, it may be a moot point now. The gloves are about to come off:

Several people were killed Thursday evening when terrorists infiltrated the Merkaz Harav yeshiva Jerusalem and opened fire, a senior police official said.

It was unclear exactly many assailants were involved, but according to various reports, one or two terrorists infiltrated the yeshiva, and may be armed with explosive belts.

Some reports suggested the terrorists were shot and killed, while other reports from the scene said the incident was ongoing and shots were still being fired.

A large number of police and emergency medical personnel had either arrived or were en route to the scene, with some 20-30 ambulances involved.

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Time's Tim McGirk has a scoop from Israel, where U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has been desperately trying to salvage the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Today, Rice announced that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas would resume peace negotiations with Israel, despite Abbas's earlier position that he would only do so after a ceasefire in Gaza was in place. The backstory here is revealing:

Insiders say Rice, in heated talks yesterday with Abbas, threatened to cut off all international aid and support to the Palestinian Authority. Privately, Palestinian advisers say that Abbas was aghast at how Rice had failed to understand the level of outrage in the Arab world, and particularly among Palestinians, over the heavy civilian casualties that resulted in Israel's fierce air and ground assault last week in Gaza.

Helene Cooper and Graham Bowley of the New York Times add this nugget:

[Abbas's] position frustrated Bush administration officials who contended that he was giving Hamas a tactical victory by allowing it to hijack the Arab-Israeli peace negotiations.... Despite his position, many Palestinian, American and Israeli officials say that, for political reasons, Mr. Abbas needs the peace process more than his Israeli and American counterparts.

Simply put, these officials are wrong. Yes, Abbas needs the peace process in general. But politically, he can't very well sit down with Ehud Olmert while Israeli bombs are killing Palestinian civilians. He needs to wait a decent interval until the fury dies down. By agreeing to pretend to negotiate instead of pretending not to negotiate, all he did was reinforce his image as an American-Israeli puppet  -- and he will get no closer to a peace treaty by being dragged to the table against his will. And having Rice announce the reversal? That was the icing on the cake.

There is no shortage of Israelis who are fed up with daily rocket attacks from Gaza. One such Israeli has decided to go vigilante. A man in Ashkelon reportedly fashioned his own homemade missile to launch into Gaza. The "200-millimeter ballistic missile" also came with some fightin' words:

From this day onwards, we will push back to the stone age every place which dares shoot missiles into Israel's sovereign territory... It is time the world understood Israelis' lives are not expendable... I'm afraid this is the only language the Palestinians understand, and this is the language in which we'll speak to them."

The missile, painted with the words "to Hamas, from the residents of Ashkelon," was never fired as police stepped in to stop the man and disperse the crowd that was cheering him on and protesting the government's handling of their security. This ought to be a teachable moment: A government can prevent acts of terrorism if it has the capacity and the will to do so.

MOHAMMED ABED/AFP/Getty Images

The Hamas rocket apparatus seems to be gaining ground, as the Israeli city of Ashkelon was hit regularly over the weekend by longer-range weapons for the first time ever. Previously, a few rockets reached the city's outskirts, but now residents find themselves living within a newly defined battle zone. Sderot, a common target of rockets, has a population of roughly 20,000. Ashkelon is a larger city with roughly 120,000 people and has infrastructure of strategic value. The city's mayor, Roni Mahatzri, had this to say about the attack:

This is a state of war, I know no other definition for it... If it lasts a week or two, we can handle that, but we have no intention of allowing this to become part of our daily routine."

Israel struck back hard at Gaza beginning Wednesday of last week. Then on Saturday, airstrikes and ground operations aimed at stopping the rockets led to the worst single-day violence in years.

It looks like Hamas is achieving its aim of derailing the Middle East peace process. The peace talks have been suspended until a ceasefire can be negotiated, which Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has volunteered to broker. With Hamas hailing Israel's troop withdrawal from Gaza as a victory, rockets and retribution may finally be taking over from negotiations and diplomatic niceties. Two sides can sit at a table, but when one of them has a murderously out-of-control brother, there's not much hope for a productive conversation any time soon.

As Drew notes, many people have been asking: What does Barack Obama really think about Israel? On Sunday, Ralph Nader had this to say about the Illinois senator on Meet the Press:

He was pro-Palestinian when he was in Illinois before he ran for the state Senate, during he ran--during the state Senate.  Now he's, he's supporting the Israeli destruction of the tiny section called Gaza with a million and a half people. He doesn't have any sympathy for a civilian death ratio of about 300-to-1; 300 Palestinians to one Israeli. He's not taking a leadership position in supporting the Israeli peace movement...

In a speech not likely to assuage Citizen Ralph, Obama put forth his own views Sunday in a talk to Jewish voters in Cleveland, Ohio. His campaign sent the remarks to the New York Sun, which published them in full here. They're too long to adequately summarize, but here's New Republic Editor Marty Peretz, a staunch pro-Israel voice, with a qualified endorsement:

... Barack Obama's views on Israel and the possibilties of peace between it and the Palestinians are both tough-minded and deeply comprehending. I don't at all think that I'd be disappointed with an Obama presidency, and certainly not with his attitude towards the Jewish State. He is also not massaging Jewish audiences when he observes -- correctly -- that Israelis are, in general, far more various in their views on the security situation than American Jews or American Jewish organizations... [Obama's views on Israel] are not mine exactly. But they are enough like mine to let me sleep calmly.

A number of Jewish and pro-Israel voters have raised questions about Barack Obama during the 2008 campaign. In case you haven't followed this ongoing issue, here's a brief summary of the complaints:

1. Obama hasn't distanced himself strongly enough from Reverend Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. of his home congregation in Chicago, whose church's magazine gave an award to the notorious Louis Farrakhan.
2. Obama has called for engaging Iran. Daniel Ayalon, Israel's former ambassador to the United States, told the New York Sun he is concerned Obama would want to negotiate with a "Hitler-like" regime.
3. Some of Obama's policy advisors of various stripes, such as Samantha Power, Robert Malley, and Zbigniew Brzezinski, have come under attack for their views on Israel. World Jewish Congress President Ronald Lauder fears, "[I]t's only a matter of time before the president becomes anti-Israel." 

It's not clear how widespread these sentiments are. Obama does have other advisors, such as Daniel Shapiro, that are quelling voters' angst. And Howard Friedman, the president of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, said the leading presidential candidates are all interested in continuing close ties with Israel. But yesterday's online frenzy about a picture of Obama in traditional Somali garb brought these questions back to the fore -- with the ugly subtext being that Obama is a closet Muslim.

In an odd parallel, rumors are circulating in Russia that Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin's designated successor, may be Jewish -- a damaging charge in a country with a long history of anti-Semitism. Nikolai Bondarik, head of the nationalist Russian Party, is happy to take advantage:

It's common knowledge. Medvedev never hid his sympathy towards Judaism… A president ought to be related by blood with his people. Imagine if Japan was run by a Chinese president."