Political Risk Must-Reads

Eurasia Group's weekly selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie-presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections @EurasiaGroup or @IanBremmer


1. "Al Qaeda 3.0: Terrorism's Emergent New Power Bases"
Bruce Riedel, The Daily Beast

In a world where international governance is breaking down, leaders are focused more on domestic than on foreign policy challenges. This trend extends to al Qaeda, an organization transitioning from global to local goals.

2. "India's African ‘Safari'"
Sudha Ramachandran, The Diplomat

We hear a lot about the US and China's conflicting investment approaches in Africa, but there's precious little written on Africa's fourth largest trading partner: India. With trade increasing by a factor of 17 over the last decade, India-Africa relations are becoming much more interesting. 

3. "How Crash Cover-Up Altered China's Succession"
Jonathan Ansfield, New York Times

How will Beijing's leadership manage the challenges that come with an era of more open information? What will the rest of us learn about the Chinese leadership's taste in cars, clothes and once-hidden power politics?

4. "Merkel's mastery of politics"
Michael Fry, The Scotsman

Is Angela Merkel the most talented politician in the world?  Her domestic political tactics shed light on her policies with regard to the Eurozone and beyond. 

5. "A free-trade agreement with Europe?"
David Ignatius, The Washington Post

Though still on the drawing board, the Trans-Pacific Partnership has far-reaching security and economic implications for North America and the Asia Pacific region.  Progress on an Atlantic equivalent seems beyond the horizon. But is an ‘economic NATO' already in the planning stages? 

6. "The mother of all worst-case assumptions about Iran"
Stephen M. Walt, Foreign Policy

Would a nuclear Iran carry "shattering geopolitical significance?" This piece overstates its case at times, but it's a question that demands consideration.

The Weekly Bonus:

"Floating Housing (And Golf Courses) For Post-Climate-Change Island Paradises"
Co.EXIST blog, Fast Company

In a G-Zero world, don't expect political leaders to tackle climate change. An ineffectual climate summit meeting in Doha this week makes that all the more obvious.  If climate change continues unabated, the Maldives will end up underwater.  The government knows it, hosting a cabinet meeting on the ocean floor in full scuba gear in 2009, and inquiring about land purchases abroad. But even the most daunting risks come with opportunities, however whimsical they may seem.


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