Friday, March 9, 2012 - 6:41 PM

The debate over whether Israel will strike Iran's nuclear facilities is awash in deadlines, some of which have already come and gone. On Thursday night, Benjamin Netanyahu added his voice to the mix. "We're not standing with a stopwatch in hand," the Israeli prime minister and sanctions skeptic explained in his first interviews since returning from Washington this week. "It's not a matter of days or weeks, but also not of years."
The takeaway? Netanyahu conveniently skipped over one popular unit of time: months. Hence headlines today like "Netanyahu: Strike on Iran's Nuclear Facilities Possible Within Months."
The troubling talk of months-long timelines coincided with some unsettling rhetoric from past and current U.S. officials. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta noted that the Pentagon has been preparing various military options for striking Iran "for a long time," while an Air Force general boasted of a 30,000-pound bunker-busting bomb that could be a "great weapon" in a clash with Iran. Former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen darkly observed that when it comes to Iran, there's no Red Phone. Politico reports:
"I am concerned because we have had no effective communication with the Iranians since 1979," the retired Navy admiral said at the CERAWeek energy conference here. "Even in the darkest moments of the Cold War, we had several lines of communications with the Soviets. Even when we could completely disagree -- which we did on many things -- we had relationships."
"We have none of those with the Iranians," he added. "So I worry that we don't understand each other, we will miscalculate and in through that miscalculation things could spin in a very bad direction."
Iran meter: Arguably, the key word in Netanyahu's statement last night was not "weeks" or "years" but "we're." Several reports over the last 24 hours have highlighted the fact that the Israeli prime minister isn't the only person who will decide whether to go ahead with an attack on Iran, and that reality could inhibit Israeli military action. At the Daily Beast, Eli Lake profiles the eight-man Israeli security cabinet that would need to approve of a strike -- support that is not guaranteed. Meanwhile, other influential Israelis are speaking out against a preemptive attack. In an interview posted by 60 Minutes, former Israeli intelligence chief Meir Dagan (pictured above with Bibi) suggests fomenting regime change in Tehran instead.
What's more, two new polls indicate that most Israelis oppose a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran. And, as Daniel Levy has argued at Foreign Policy, politics matters in Netanyahu's calculations. Frankly, the most worrying news today may have been Mullen's warning about a lack of communication between Washington and Tehran. If a confrontation is indeed only months away, the United States doesn't have much time to rectify that situation.
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While there are many problems in the middle east, only one is our essential bane. Only one has drawn us into a seemingly unending conflict with Islam. We should be honest enough to see it.
For the following reasons it seems to me that the Zionist enterprise has reached its dead end. A few more decades will tell the tale. Israel is in a strategic trap of its own creation. Peace and justice were rejected in favor of ruthless domination. A "master race" based upon false biblical authority. But that cannot last. New wars against Iran, Turkey, Egypt, or repeatedly devastating Lebanon, can only make a bad situation much worse. Everyone knows this.
Here is the problem:
No two state solution: it is now foreclosed by forty years of illegal annexations and forced colonization of the West Bank. Look at a map of the "settlements". They seem to be located in such a manner as to make a Palestinian state not viable. Some 500K super ardent Haredi occupy these "settlements" and it is a fantasy that they ever would leave to make the Palestinian state feasible, nor stay in peaceful accomodation with one. Everyone know this too.
No one state solution: Unacceptable. A state unitary, democratic, and non-sectarian with one person one vote confronts the frankly racist thesis of a state dominated by a particular religious or ethnic group.
No sustainable Apartheid solution: The servile condition of the Palestinians in the West Bank, surrounded by vast concrete walls, and forbidden even to drive on the roads upon pain of immediate and non-recourse confiscation of their vehicle, and the worse reality of the unfortunates in the Gaza ghetto, imprisioned for life, cannot endure in the modern world.
See Shulamit Aloni's summation: "Yes, there is Apartheid in Israel" at:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2007/01/08/yes-there-i...
No "population transfer" solution: Expulsion of millions of Palestinians to Jordan at the point of a bayonet is not feasible.
No military solution: The vast military power of Israel and all its nuclear weapons are useless to resolve this impasse. The cancer is internal, political, economic, demographic and is growing.
Ergo, there is no solution. Dead end.
Yes, Israel remains in full control of US policy, but unending war can only in time come to one conclusion. Has it ever in world history been otherwise? The American imprimatur cannot last forever. For my part, I just want America off this bus before it goes over the cliff and takes us with it.
And it is NOT "antisemitic" to say so.
@TARQUINIS:
I think you're missing another possibility or two.
E.g., Israel just eventually declares what its boundaries are, carefully drawing the lines of same around its settlements and the land it wants, and says to the Palestinians "here, here's your state if you want it, too bad it's too small and fractured to be a state, but tough shit." And you know the U.S. at least would accept this.
And as to whatever arabs remain within those lines, Israel just practices what it is now in terms of very very open laws and practices making life miserable for those who do not have Israeli citizenship and thus ever more forcing them to move, and otherwise makes the life of even arab Israeli citizens ever more uncomfortable too and getting them to move as well.
I see nothing about this that the U.S. wouldn't swallow, and Europe even wouldn't be blind to.
600,000 Israelis moved to U.S. ....
600,000 Israelis have moved to the U.S. while only 30,000 U.S. Americans have moved to Israel...
Whatever point you thought you were making was lost
Which actually makes it one of the largest recipients of US expats.
Americans are not exactly well known for living abroad in large numbers or immigrating elsewhere.
----
What I find telling is the two-faced contradictory attitude of the crowd here.
On one hand they are trying to convince people Iran has no nuclear intentions (despite practically broadcasting them to the world) then they go with the alternative argument that even if they did, its OK because they want to wipe out hated Israel.
This is sad. But it is really much worse. Hamas is one of the organizations of the Palestinians. It goes on firing missiles into Israel. The reason and the inspiration can be easily understood: Palestinians have been deprived of their homeland in which they and their ancestors had lived for generations and centuries until the State of Israel was made in 1948. The new State proceeded to justify its existence by engaging in constant warfare with all its neighbours, repeat, all its neighbours: in those wars Israel has been the winner invariably and its neighbours have lost all along the line, including great leaders like Nasser of Egypt and Arafat of the PLO. Neither side really gives up. The Palestinians keep on attacking Israel. And Israel has no option but to retaliate. The strikes here reported are just one such instance. Doubtless there will be many more in the days to come. It is necessary to take a look at the underlying causes of such violence. It is clear beyond the shadow of a doubt that no world leader – least of all a US president – ever cared to go to the root causes of the Middle Eastern Question, one that has gone through several phases and causes over the last 200 years and more. Leaving earlier history apart, the present approach seems to be by and large that the solution lies in making two States – Israel for the Jews and Palestine for the Palestinian Arabs. That is the main part of the idea, the rest can be dealt with as matters of detail: the question of Jerusalem, the Palestinians now in Israel – and they have lived there for generations, the so-called Israeli constructed housing in various occupied lands of several countries, etc. In the main, the solution can only be on the basis of Israel’s return to its 1967 borders and recognition of the two States – Israel and Palestine – to exist side by side: they are fated to be neighbours. Israel needs to abandon all thought of “Greater Israel”. The question is further complicated by the support that the Palestinians receive from several Arab countries, perhaps all Arab countries, and even from Iran, which is Islamic but, unlike all Arab countries which are Islamic and Sunni, Iran is predominantly Shia. Many of the Arab countries of the Middle East and Iran are rich in oil and have enormous earnings from oil exports. At another lever, Israel has gone to the extent of making nuclear weapons, for which it doubtless had considerable support from the US. As a result, it has been possible for Israel to go on terrorizing all of its Middle Eastern neighbours, none of whom woke up to the power and significance of nuclear weapons. It is possible that rather late in the day Iran has woken up to the importance of nuclear weapons and is now attempting to make its nuclear weapons, although it is party to the non-proliferation agreements: there has been no evidence from the IAEA or even US intelligence agencies to prove that Iran has indeed been in pursuit of nuclear weapons. For its part, Iran goes on claiming that its nuclear programme is entirely for peaceful purposes permitted under the restrictive non-proliferation regime. A further complication is that if Iran made nuclear weapons, then perhaps Saudi Arabia would like to follow suit – and one does not know whether there might be other aspirants in the region. That will make nonsense of the entire non-proliferation regime so laboriously put in place and meticulously enforced by the N-5 recognized under the non-proliferation regime. However, the N-5 themselves have been rather remiss about their adherence to the restrictions of the non-proliferation regime or about the need to go into the question of nuclear disarmament of the N-5 inter se. For that matter, Western insistence on non-proliferation rings hollow and does not quite convince others: the exceptions of India and Pakistan readily come to mind, who along with North Korea, have not signed the non-proliferation agreements, namely, NNPT, CTBT, FMCT, and MTCR. All these questions need to be considered together and not by parts. The Middle East needs a comprehensive settlement of all outstanding issues, none of which is amenable to solution by itself. The other aspects and related implications of those issues need to be kept in view. V. C. Bhutani, Delhi, India, 11 Mar 2012, 0741 IST
After sending in my first comment I have taken a look at other comments and a re-look at possibilities, about which no one is talking here. At the outset I beg to remind those who write in these columns that anything that goes up eventually comes down. This applies to both US and Israel. The US is like a huge ship which develops a hole at the bottom: sea water keeps seeping in and takes the ship down to the bottom of the sea. But this does not happen in a hurry. It takes a lot of time. The ship called US is not about to go down but, surely, US dominance in world affairs cannot last forever. That’s the law of civilizations, a la Arnold Toynbee. For the present, the US shall remain the dominant power in world affairs into the foreseeable future.
But that kind of power and dominance carries with it the attendant obligation to use that power in a responsible manner. If the US goes on using its uncontrolled and uncontrollable military power in an indiscriminate power, whether of its own volition or under compulsion like Israeli command of US politics, there is no doubt that that dominance shall come to an end some day, and perhaps rather soon.
Israel should also know that it will not do to go on justifying Israel’s existence by appealing to the Holocaust all the time. There is no doubt that the Holocaust was a colossal aberration heaped upon humankind by a megalomaniac (who could even be described as a lunatic, though not quite), but it is not right to deliver a riposte like oscillating to the other extreme and pretend that the Jews, now that they have a State of their own and the support of the most powerful State in history, can heap unlimited suffering and humiliation on their Arab and especially Palestinian neighbours – the Holocaust does not justify that. If Jews had been badly treated in the past, the Jews are now treating Arabs and Palestinians badly. This must necessarily lead to a situation where a State or a combination of States shall arise to confront Israel and US.
It is not axiomatic that an Israeli attack on Iran shall lead to Israel’s complete victory under all circumstances. There is a reasonable chance that this may happen, but what happens if Iran demonstrates its ability to visit condign punishment on Israel without nuclear weapons? If Israel proceeds to an attack on Iran today, then Iran should be expected to respond with all the power that it has. If that power includes an ability to cause unacceptable damage to Israel, then that is a circumstance that should induce careful thinking in Israel. In the event of that ‘condign punishment’ on Israel, as a further response the US may have no option but to come to Israel’s help even before November 7, but Israel should not delude itself that it must necessarily win against Iran in the first instance. This will depend on Iran’s state of military preparedness and ability to respond.
In these columns I have seen no awareness or readiness to discuss these questions which to my way of thinking are rather important.
V. C. Bhutani, Delhi, India, 11 Mar 2012, 0857 IST
What is the end-game for America and the Israel lobby?
Is it not now time that America, the claimed bastion of democracy, tells the world why every US president, since John F Kennedy, has colluded in the astonishing subterfuge of ‘nuclear ambiguity’ that has allowed Israel to have built a massive, undeclared, nuclear arsenal estimated to contain up to 400 nuclear weapons?
This estimate of size and capacity indicates that this enormous nuclear stockpile of WMD is clearly not just for defensive purposes. That poses four urgent questions:
1. If not for defence, then for what offensive use has it been covertly built?
2. Could it be a long-term strategy, now nearing maturity, to bomb Iran in order to ensure its own position as the most powerful military state in a Middle East which includes Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Lebanon, Jordan, UAE and Syria – together with all their respective oilfields and natural resources?
3. If so, what is the end-game for America and the lobby?
4. Or, is Netanyahu’s government, with its expansionist agenda, now beyond the control of Israel’s mentor and military supplier, and, if so, what specific dangers does this now pose for the entire world?
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“Proof that Israel is, without any doubt, a nuclear weapons state, means an end to nods, winks and blind eyes. It confirms Israel as the Middle East’s premier armed power. And it challenges all the countries of the region, including Iran, to address, separately or jointly, the threat inherent in the resulting, now undeniable military imbalance.”
Extract from: Simon Tisdall’s world briefing
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/23/israel-nuclear-weapons
If Israel does have nuclear weapons, their purpose is to make sure that if Israel were to be defeated in a conventional war, those who are defeating them would go down with them, so there is no way to defeat Israel in a conventional war and survive. Israel would only use its nuclear weapons if the only other option is the end of the Jewish state.
Ambassador of Death: Attack of the Drones
In our world and our time, Drones (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles), which were experimentally manufactured in 1916, were first armed in order to attempt to kill Osama bin Laden.
They were and still are proven to be unreliable due to the fact that their target abilities are far from surgical precision, they are unstable when flying in less than perfect weather and they crash very often. In addition, loss of communication with these drones is one of the many technical issues that lead to their sub par performance. After consideration, President Clinton decided to shut down the project.
Later on, Bush reopened the project, refinanced it and made used of these drones 44 times, despite the acknowledgement of the performance reports. The attacks evidently lead to casualties; bodies were often hidden and buried by troops on the ground.
However, for now, most drones aren’t exploited for military purpose. They are mostly used for surveillance, reconnaissance, news reporting, border patrolling, intelligence and inspection.
As such, most industrialized countries such as China, France, United Kingdom, Germany, Russia, India, Canada, Australia, Pakistan, Japan and Brazil do “harvest” drones. Some of the super drones have even been baptized. Israel named theirs Heron; the United States upgraded their Predator with the Avenger; and, last but not least, Iran named theirs Karrar, which is Farsi for Striker. President Ahmadinejad infamously nicknamed his Persian Menace: the Ambassador of Death.
Episode X : The Persian Menace
Do not let the Ambassador of Death mislead you into being alarmed. The Ambassador of Death is not Darth Vader’s vehicle of choice. This drone is intended for, and I quote: “Peace and Friendship“. Logically, why should we be nervous over Iran since they have not initiated any attack towards any other country in over 200 years? And yes, the Persian Gulf War has been taken in consideration when making that statement.
That being said, it evidently is not the case when shifting our attention towards the previously mentioned pro-drone countries. Over 239 drone strikes were ordered under the Obama administration. Many of these attacks were carried out against the advice of U.S. Officials and Diplomats. In fact, that tendency has led the Obama Administration of being responsible for at least 85% of drone strikes around the world, particularly in Pakistan.
This is the same Obama that won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009. Even then, his addition seems unsuited and undeserved, when one remembers past laureates.
As mentioned in a previous article of mine, the five countries (United Kingdom, United States, France, Russia and China) that have secured permanent United Nation seats are also the top global arm dealers. These same countries have been accusing Iran of secretly building nuclear weapons and pressuring them to halt their nuclear program.
It is important to understand or remember that the U.S. did not only assist but also coordinated the launch of the Iranian Nuclear Program in the 50s. This program was maintained for decades, until the 1979 revolution.
This support was even symbolized and categorized as the “Atoms for Peace” Program, implemented in 1953 by Eisenhower. Let’s acknowledge that a program would not be complete without an appropriate inaugural speech. And where else but at the United Nation General Assembly can a prestigious one take place? In this case, the cleverly named “Atoms for Peace” speech quickly followed Eisenhower’s “Chance for Peace” speech.
All this backing did result in the inception of Iran’s first nuclear power plant, which was completed and activated thanks to Russian assistance, in 2011.
The irony! The Atoms for Peace Program’s main principle was to reassure the world during the Cold War (between 1945 and 1991). Sarcastically, the Russians presided over its closing ceremony.
As a counter attack, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board, nations and multinational entities officially reprimanded and sanctioned Iran. This judgment was internationally supported by detailed tangible and evidence. The Iranian authorities, or should I say THE Iranian Authority, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Hosseini khamenei, has not yet been successfully coerced by the international pressure. The U.N. inspectors can come and go as often as necessary, it’s all in good faith, from both parties.
Remember, it’s a ll about Peace and Friendship.
“Look up in the sky, it’s a bird, it’s a plane… No, it’s a drone!”
The Empire Will Strike Back. It is just a question on which Empire will strike first.
Guess who’s building nuclear power plants now?
READ MORE AT : THUSALWAYSTOGENIUS
Netanyahu has a simpler timetable: Israeli elections. He is determined to stay PM for as long as he can. His coalition contains hardliners that are determined to carry on with "Greater Israel." That means to survive the next election, he MUST attack Iran. No, there are not enough doves in Israel to make this too costly for him. Does this in fact damage the US? Of course. It's humorous to observe some of the old time neocons on the talk show circuit frantically circling the wagons. One gentleman tipped the hand of the upcoming fallback position, yes, there will be no two state solution, but yes, Israel must improve its "democracy" for those Arabs who live within Israel's borders. Imagine what Netanyahu's partners will say...
just end of the world. Better check szk?a kontaktowe
i liked American foreign policy before Obama. Someone like Bush would have gave the Chinese something to think about. But when Obama first came into power he extended an "arm of friendship" to Iran. Iran quickly threw it back in his face and Russia and China and the whole World laughed at how weak the USA appeared. I hope to God they get a strong leader soon because if they go the UK will be brought down with it and Asia will rule the World again..
"Is rio orange war always forfait internet mobile inevitable ?"
MaximB
more so the "yellow peril". states tending toward communism werent ever ideal trade partners anyway, too far and not much to gain from them. it's more asia that aus would have ever traded with. it never occured because of the fear they would invade if allowed close contact..
"Is rio orange war always forfait sms illimite inevitable ?"
MaximB
I don't know. But then again, she's not running for president. That means the real question is: Does Obama have any knowledge of foreign policy?.
"Is rio orange war always forfait mobile blackberry inevitable ?"
MaximB
Passport, FP’s flagship blog, brings you news and hidden angles on the biggest stories of the day, as well as insights and under-the-radar gems from around the world.
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