Posted By Blake Hounshell Share

The news gods have apparently decided it's time for yet another round of Washington's favorite parlor game: "Will Israel attack Iran?"

The latest round of speculation was kicked off by a mammoth New York Times magazine article by Israeli journalist Ronen Bergman, who concluded, "After speaking with many senior Israeli leaders and chiefs of the military and the intelligence, I have come to believe that Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012."

Veteran Iran hand Gary Sick ably dispensed with Bergman's argument here, noting that his reporting actually points toward the opposite conclusion:

Like virtually all other commentators on this issue, Bergman slides over the fact that the IAEA consistently reports that Iran has diverted none of its uranium to military purposes. Like others, he focuses on the recent IAEA report, which was the most detailed to date in discussing Iran’s suspected experiments with military implications; but like others, he fails to mention that almost all of the suspect activity took place seven or more years ago and there is no reliable evidence that it has resumed. A problem, yes; an imminent threat, no.

Bergman also overlooks the fact that Iran has almost certainly NOT made a decision to actually build a bomb and that we are very likely to know if they should make such a decision. How would we know? Simply because those pesky IAEA inspectors are there on site and Iran would have to kick them out and break the seals on their stored uranium in order to produce the high enriched uranium needed for a bomb.

Would Israel actually attack while these international inspectors are at work? No, they would need to give them warning, thereby giving Iran warning that something was coming. The IAEA presence is a trip wire that works both ways. It is an invaluable resource. Risking its loss would be not only foolhardy but self-destructive to Israel and everyone else.

But Bergman's article isn't the only recent bite at this apple. Foreign Affairs hosted a debate between former Defense Department officials Matthew Kroenig and Colin Kahl on whether the United States should bomb Iran itself; Foreign Policy's Steve Walt went several rounds with Kroenig; defense analysts Edridge Colby and Austin Long joined the discussion in the National Interest. Many others weighed in.

Today, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius threw another log on the fire when he reported that U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta "believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June" and that the Obama administration is "conducting intense discussions about what an Israeli attack would mean for the United States." He added: "U.S. officials don’t think that Netanyahu has made a final decision to attack, and they note that top Israeli intelligence officials remain skeptical of the project." (Reuters notes archly that Ignatius was "writing from Brussels where Panetta was attending a NATO defense ministers' meeting.")

There have also been a number of items in recent days about Iran's murky ties to al Qaeda, including this Foreign Affairs article by Rand analyst Seth Jones and what appeared to be a follow-up report in the Wall Street Journal (never mind that the information was nearly two years old), as well as a steady drumbeat of alarmist quotes from top Israeli officials -- all reminiscent of the run up to the Iraq war. Add to this mix Iran's threat to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, an ongoing congresssional push for tougher sanctions, and the heated rhetoric coming from Obama's Republican challengers, and you have a recipe for a media feeding frenzy.

Most likely, the real drivers of this latest round are the Western attempts to persuade Iran's Asian customers -- China, India, Japan, South Korea -- to stop buying Iranian oil by persuading them that the only alternative is war. Those efforts are probably doomed, despite Israel's increasingly convincing ambiguity about its ultimate intentions. Asian countries simply don't care all that much about the prospect of an Iranian nuclear weapon -- they care about their own prosperity above all.

So, is Israel going to attack Iran, despite all of the doubts many have raised? There are only two people who know the answer to that question -- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Ehud Barak -- and I don't think they'll announce their decision in the New York Times. The smart money's still betting against an Israeli strike, but the odds do seem to be getting shorter.

 

TIMING

2:06 PM ET

February 3, 2012

Whatever anyone else says, israel cannot be so cavalier as...

Israel cannot afford to be so cavalier about their safety as those farther afield seem to be. What is it that people dont understand about a nuclear armed iran?

Iran with nukes is unacceptable. Even obama said so. remember that little pledge he made in his campaign in 08'? or was that just for certain donor money and votes ....were gonna see exactly what and who mr obama is. 3am is coming.

 

JFAIR

4:39 PM ET

February 3, 2012

sure

A nuclear Iran is totally unacceptable. The world would much rather go to war with Iran, a war we cannot win nor afford, a war that would plunge us all into economic ruin. Yeah, that's a great idea, especially given the fact that no country has ever launched a preemptive nuclear attack against another nuclear armed nation nor would because it would be mutually assured destruction.

 

JOHNBOY4546

8:38 PM ET

February 3, 2012

Well, THAT's certainly cavalier

TIMING is suggestion that Israel has no option but to launch an attack upon another country merely because Israel can not live with the idea of Iran having the same C.A.P.A.B.I.L.I.T.Y. as itself.

Cavalier indeed, because if every country took that attitude then:

Britain would have attacked Germany in, say, 1880 when Tirpitz started building slipways because, of course, the Brits could not be so cavalier as to allow the Germans to build battleships that could rival the Royal Navy.

The USA would have attacked the USSR in, oh, 1948 since - naturally - the USA could never be so cavalier as to allow those damn Commies to have nukes.

And, of course, the USA would have attacked China in the early 1960s, for exactly the same reason.

To do otherwise would be cavalier, and we all know that countries are perfectly entitled to go BAMMMMMMMM! on other countries in order to assuage their own paranoia.

 

CHARLESFRITH

9:05 AM ET

February 5, 2012

Israel Is The Nuclear Threat

Drunk on power and the bully of the Middle East.

 

AARONJA

3:06 PM ET

February 3, 2012

Israeli attack during the US presidential campaign

Israel will probably strike under cover of the US presidential campaign in the knowledge that Obama will be forced to support them and demonstrate his pro-Israeli credentials in the face of Republican attacks.
Israel knows how to work the American political machinery to its advantage.

 

TIMING

3:23 PM ET

February 3, 2012

good reading for anti's

Three Middle East Myths Exploded
First it was the myth about linkage between Iran and Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking.

According to the logic, without progress on the Palestinian front, it would be impossible to mobilize Arab countries to face the Iranian nuclear threat.

The notion had shelf life, sustained by some diplomats and the commentariat until it was blown out of the water by the WikiLeaks revelations.

Of course, it was no secret that Arab leaders feared Iran’s growing power and made not the slightest connection between the two issues. Anyone who met with an Arab official from Riyadh to Rabat heard the same dread about the looming prospect of a nuclear-armed Shiite theocracy in Tehran.

But in today’s world, facts don’t necessarily have any claim on fiction, until they become so incontrovertible that there’s no easy way around them.

And that’s just what WikiLeaks proved.

Lo and behold, the cables revealed that from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain, from the United Arab Emirates to Egypt, Arab leaders were imploring the United States to stiffen its spine and confront the Iranians. Linkage to the Palestinian question? Not even close. No mention whatsoever.

To the contrary, several Arab countries have looked to Israel, with or without a peace agreement, as a stealth ally in the face-off with Iran.

Another myth was about settlement-building in eastern Jerusalem.

According to that one, the peace process was going to wither on the vine and die because Israel indicated its intention to continue construction within Jewish neighborhoods.

Israel was criticized, pilloried, and pummeled for its actions, accused not only of being an obstacle to peace, but the obstacle. The reality on the ground seemed not to matter. The world was led to believe that the very future of the Middle East hinged on Israel’s alleged misbehavior.

Israel attempted to explain that both sides understood there would be border adjustments in a peace accord reflecting demographic realities on the ground, but this mattered not a whit. And it had even less success when it reminded the world that settlements, certainly an issue for negotiations, was by no means the only one – and certainly not a sufficient explanation for more than six decades of overwhelming Arab refusal to come to terms with Israel’s very right to exist.

Then came PaliLeaks, and the myth was blown out of the water.

The documents showed there was indeed tacit agreement on certain land swaps, including, yes, Jewish areas of eastern Jerusalem. The papers showed that the gap between the two sides was less than imagined, but, sadly, the uproar over the leaked documents proved that the Palestinian Authority has failed even to attempt to prepare its population for the concessions needed for an end of conflict and lasting peace.

And last it was the myth loudly stated by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan that the root of all problems in the Middle East lies with Israel’s intransigence.

To accept the Turkish leader’s premise means throwing truth to the wind. Even a cursory study of the Arab world reveals deep-rooted problems having nothing to do with Israel and everything to do with political, economic, and social stasis. But that would have spoiled the appealing narrative.

After all, it is much more reassuring for the Erdogans of the world to lift responsibility from Arab shoulders and place it squarely on Israel’s! And for the Israel-bashers, of whom there is no shortage, anything suggesting Israeli culpability is greeted with endless expressions of glee and gratitude.

Who needs critical-thinking skills when criticism of Israel is so much more effortless and satisfying?

Yet this myth, too, has been exposed in recent weeks for all the world to see.

The streets of Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen filled with crowds rising up against domestic repression, the absence of opportunity, and the culture of cronyism and corruption.

Though none of the “after-the-fact experts” foresaw it, why, Erdogan aside, should that have come as a surprise?

All it took was a casual reading of the UN Arab Human Development Report, compiled by Arab scholars and published regularly by the world body, and other relevant material. I draw below from an article I wrote 13 months ago in The Huffington Postentitled “It’s not about Israel.”

They [the report’s authors] have spoken of three overarching explanatory factors for the region's unsatisfactory condition: the knowledge deficit, the gender deficit and the freedom deficit.

Unless these three areas are addressed in a sustained manner, the Middle East, which ought to be one of the world's most dynamic regions, is likely to continue suffering from instability, violence and fundamentalism, irrespective of what happens on the Israeli-Palestinian front.

Consider some of the important findings in recent Arab Human Development Reports and related studies:

• The total number of books translated into Arabic in the last 1,000 years is fewer than those translated into Spanish in one year.

• Greece -- with a population of fewer than 11 million -- translates five times as many books from abroad into Greek annually as the 22 Arab countries combined, with a total population of more than 300 million, translate into Arabic.

• According to a Council on Foreign Relations report, "In the 1950s, per-capita income in Egypt was similar to South Korea, whereas Egypt's per-capita income today is less than 20 percent of South Korea's. Saudi Arabia had a higher gross domestic product than Taiwan in the 1950s; today, it is about 50 percent of Taiwan's."

As Dr. A.B. Zahlan, a Palestinian physicist, has noted: "A regressive political culture is at the root of the Arab world's failure to fund scientific research or to sustain a vibrant, innovative community of scientists." He further asserted that "Egypt, in 1950, had more engineers than all of China." That is hardly the case today.

The UN Human Development Report reveals that only two Egyptians per million people were granted patents, compared to 30 in Greece and 35 in Israel (for Syria, the figure was zero).

Similarly, the adult literacy rate for women aged 15 and older was 43.6 percent in Egypt and 74 percent in Syria, while for the world's top 20 countries it was nearly 100 percent.

And finally, according to Freedom House rankings, no Arab country in the Middle East is listed as "free." Each is described as “partly free” at best, “not free” at worst.

The sad truth is that it is precisely political oppression, intellectual suffocation, and gender discrimination that explain, far more than any other factor, the chronic difficulties of the Middle East.

There exist no overnight or over-the-counter remedies for these maladies that would allow the region to unleash its vast potential, but one thing is clear: they, not the straw man of Israel, are at the heart of the problem.

It would be illusory to think otherwise.

The illusions, or myths, prevailed until the throngs in the Arab streets shattered them.

Like bowling pins, the myths keep falling. It remains to be seen whether they’ll be replaced by new ones, or, at long last, by a dose of reality.

 

IRANDOKHT

6:10 PM ET

February 3, 2012

Off point

Talk about going off the point.
The issue is Iran, not a diatribe in support of Israel.
However, there really are no myths. The single biggest issue in the Middle East and the Muslim world is the Palestinians and their treatment by the Israeli's. Iran and the nuclear issue is a smoke screen to avoid dealing with the Palestinians while Israel continues to expand its settlements, with the US along for the ride together with their cheque book.
Historically the Arab leaders have always had an antipathy and jealousy of Iran so nothing new there.
If there is a secondary issue then that would be the hypocrisy of the US and Europe in supporting countries like Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and other totalitarian regimes despite their appalling violations of human rights because it suits the politics of the moment.

 

JOHNBOY4546

8:22 PM ET

February 3, 2012

TIMING just cracks me up

Really, he does..

If I wanted to read David Harris (why would I?) then I'd go here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-harris/three-middle-east-myths-e_b_821537.html
and contemplete that nonsense as it flows from the pen of The Great Man himself.

But I certainly wouldn't want to come across is simply because it has been regurgitated through the lips of a ventriloquist's dummy, and is now lying on the floor 'n' stinkin' up the place. Ewwwwwwwww.

 

SPOOD

12:13 AM ET

February 4, 2012

Bacon quick question

How the hell would you know what Arab people really want?

They live in dictatorships. All forms of formal communication are controlled by their government. There are thousands of madrassas there and not one free news source.

Claiming you have any knowledge as to what the Arab man on the street thinks is just pulling a position out of your posterior. You are full of it.

 

SPOOD

3:28 PM ET

February 3, 2012

How stupid is this discussion?

Isn't the point of a possible Israeli strike kinda pointless if it is telegraphed so often or if a possible date range is given?

Wouldn't something like this require at least a modicum of surprise. We are assuming Iran has zero anti-aircraft defenses and all of Arab countries in between will allow Israel to use their airspace.

If one was to use a little bit of common sense and apply it to the situation we will see there will be no war.

Iran is clearly bluffing as to its nuclear capabilities ala Kim Jong Il to extort and scare their neighbors. Israel is also using the situation for political brownie points. [Think of how this plays against Israeli dove political groups]

These sort of things are generally done with a lot more discretion. If we are discussing these things openly like this, chances are, its all a big pile of bullshit.

 

TIMING

3:42 PM ET

February 3, 2012

a few good reads from david harris...

a good read for the anti's...

Three Middle East Myths Exploded

First it was the myth about linkage between Iran and Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking.

According to the logic, without progress on the Palestinian front, it would be impossible to mobilize Arab countries to face the Iranian nuclear threat.

The notion had shelf life, sustained by some diplomats and the commentariat until it was blown out of the water by the WikiLeaks revelations.

Of course, it was no secret that Arab leaders feared Iran’s growing power and made not the slightest connection between the two issues. Anyone who met with an Arab official from Riyadh to Rabat heard the same dread about the looming prospect of a nuclear-armed Shiite theocracy in Tehran.

But in today’s world, facts don’t necessarily have any claim on fiction, until they become so incontrovertible that there’s no easy way around them.

And that’s just what WikiLeaks proved.

Lo and behold, the cables revealed that from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain, from the United Arab Emirates to Egypt, Arab leaders were imploring the United States to stiffen its spine and confront the Iranians. Linkage to the Palestinian question? Not even close. No mention whatsoever.

To the contrary, several Arab countries have looked to Israel, with or without a peace agreement, as a stealth ally in the face-off with Iran.

Another myth was about settlement-building in eastern Jerusalem.

According to that one, the peace process was going to wither on the vine and die because Israel indicated its intention to continue construction within Jewish neighborhoods.

Israel was criticized, pilloried, and pummeled for its actions, accused not only of being an obstacle to peace, but the obstacle. The reality on the ground seemed not to matter. The world was led to believe that the very future of the Middle East hinged on Israel’s alleged misbehavior.

Israel attempted to explain that both sides understood there would be border adjustments in a peace accord reflecting demographic realities on the ground, but this mattered not a whit. And it had even less success when it reminded the world that settlements, certainly an issue for negotiations, was by no means the only one – and certainly not a sufficient explanation for more than six decades of overwhelming Arab refusal to come to terms with Israel’s very right to exist.

Then came PaliLeaks, and the myth was blown out of the water.

The documents showed there was indeed tacit agreement on certain land swaps, including, yes, Jewish areas of eastern Jerusalem. The papers showed that the gap between the two sides was less than imagined, but, sadly, the uproar over the leaked documents proved that the Palestinian Authority has failed even to attempt to prepare its population for the concessions needed for an end of conflict and lasting peace.

And last it was the myth loudly stated by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan that the root of all problems in the Middle East lies with Israel’s intransigence.

To accept the Turkish leader’s premise means throwing truth to the wind. Even a cursory study of the Arab world reveals deep-rooted problems having nothing to do with Israel and everything to do with political, economic, and social stasis. But that would have spoiled the appealing narrative.

After all, it is much more reassuring for the Erdogans of the world to lift responsibility from Arab shoulders and place it squarely on Israel’s! And for the Israel-bashers, of whom there is no shortage, anything suggesting Israeli culpability is greeted with endless expressions of glee and gratitude.

Who needs critical-thinking skills when criticism of Israel is so much more effortless and satisfying?

Yet this myth, too, has been exposed in recent weeks for all the world to see.

The streets of Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen filled with crowds rising up against domestic repression, the absence of opportunity, and the culture of cronyism and corruption.

Though none of the “after-the-fact experts” foresaw it, why, Erdogan aside, should that have come as a surprise?

All it took was a casual reading of the UN Arab Human Development Report, compiled by Arab scholars and published regularly by the world body, and other relevant material. I draw below from an article I wrote 13 months ago in The Huffington Postentitled “It’s not about Israel.”

They [the report’s authors] have spoken of three overarching explanatory factors for the region's unsatisfactory condition: the knowledge deficit, the gender deficit and the freedom deficit.

Unless these three areas are addressed in a sustained manner, the Middle East, which ought to be one of the world's most dynamic regions, is likely to continue suffering from instability, violence and fundamentalism, irrespective of what happens on the Israeli-Palestinian front.

Consider some of the important findings in recent Arab Human Development Reports and related studies:

• The total number of books translated into Arabic in the last 1,000 years is fewer than those translated into Spanish in one year.

• Greece -- with a population of fewer than 11 million -- translates five times as many books from abroad into Greek annually as the 22 Arab countries combined, with a total population of more than 300 million, translate into Arabic.

• According to a Council on Foreign Relations report, "In the 1950s, per-capita income in Egypt was similar to South Korea, whereas Egypt's per-capita income today is less than 20 percent of South Korea's. Saudi Arabia had a higher gross domestic product than Taiwan in the 1950s; today, it is about 50 percent of Taiwan's."

As Dr. A.B. Zahlan, a Palestinian physicist, has noted: "A regressive political culture is at the root of the Arab world's failure to fund scientific research or to sustain a vibrant, innovative community of scientists." He further asserted that "Egypt, in 1950, had more engineers than all of China." That is hardly the case today.

The UN Human Development Report reveals that only two Egyptians per million people were granted patents, compared to 30 in Greece and 35 in Israel (for Syria, the figure was zero).

Similarly, the adult literacy rate for women aged 15 and older was 43.6 percent in Egypt and 74 percent in Syria, while for the world's top 20 countries it was nearly 100 percent.

And finally, according to Freedom House rankings, no Arab country in the Middle East is listed as "free." Each is described as “partly free” at best, “not free” at worst.

The sad truth is that it is precisely political oppression, intellectual suffocation, and gender discrimination that explain, far more than any other factor, the chronic difficulties of the Middle East.

There exist no overnight or over-the-counter remedies for these maladies that would allow the region to unleash its vast potential, but one thing is clear: they, not the straw man of Israel, are at the heart of the problem.

It would be illusory to think otherwise.

The illusions, or myths, prevailed until the throngs in the Arab streets shattered them.

Like bowling pins, the myths keep falling. It remains to be seen whether they’ll be replaced by new ones, or, at long last, by a dose of reality.

more good stuff....

I was sitting in a lecture hall at a British university. Bored by the speaker, I began glancing around the hall. I noticed someone who looked quite familiar from an earlier academic incarnation. When the session ended, I introduced myself and wondered if, after years that could be counted in decades, he remembered me.

He said he did, at which point I commented that the years had been good to him. His response: “But you’ve changed a lot.”

“How so?” I asked with a degree of trepidation, knowing that, self-deception aside, being 60 isn’t quite the same as 30.

Looking me straight in the eye, he proclaimed, as others standing nearby listened in, “I read the things you write about Israel. I hate them. How can you defend that country? What happened to the good liberal boy I knew 30 years ago?”

I replied: “That good liberal boy hasn’t changed his view. Israel is a liberal cause, and I am proud to speak up for it.”

Yes, I’m proud to speak up for Israel. A recent trip once again reminded me why.

Sometimes, it’s the seemingly small things, the things that many may not even notice, or just take for granted, or perhaps deliberately ignore, lest it spoil their airtight thinking.

It’s the driving lesson in Jerusalem, with the student behind the wheel a devout Muslim woman, and the teacher an Israeli with a skullcap. To judge from media reports about endless inter-communal conflict, such a scene should be impossible. Yet, it was so mundane that no one, it seemed, other than me gave it a passing glance. It goes without saying that the same woman would not have had the luxury of driving lessons, much less with an Orthodox Jewish teacher, had she been living in Saudi Arabia.

It’s the two gay men walking hand-in-hand along the Tel Aviv beachfront. No one looked at them, and no one questioned their right to display their affection. Try repeating the same scene in some neighboring countries.

It’s the Friday crowd at a mosque in Jaffa. Muslims are free to enter as they please, to pray, to affirm their faith. The scene is repeated throughout Israel. Meanwhile, Christians in Iraq are targeted for death; Copts in Egypt face daily marginalization; Saudi Arabia bans any public display of Christianity; and Jews have been largely driven out of the Arab Middle East.

It’s the central bus station in Tel Aviv. There’s a free health clinic set up for the thousands of Africans who have entered Israel, some legally, others illegally. They are from Sudan, Eritrea, and elsewhere. They are Christians, Muslims, and animists. Clearly, they know something that Israel’s detractors, who rant and rave about alleged “racism,” don’t. They know that, if they’re lucky, they can make a new start in Israel. That’s why they bypass Arab countries along the way, fearing imprisonment or persecution. And while tiny Israel wonders how many such refugees it can absorb, Israeli medical professionals volunteer their time in the clinic.

It’s Save a Child’s Heart, another Israeli institution that doesn’t make it into the international media all that much, although it deserves a nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize. Here, children in need of advanced cardiac care come, often below the radar. They arrive from Iraq, the West Bank, Gaza, and other Arab places. They receive world-class treatment. It’s free, offered by doctors and nurses who wish to assert their commitment to coexistence. Yet, these very same individuals know that, in many cases, their work will go unacknowledged. The families are fearful of admitting they sought help in Israel, even as, thanks to Israelis, their children have been given a new lease on life.

It’s the vibrancy of the Israeli debate on just about everything, including, centrally, the ongoing conflict with the Palestinians. The story goes that U.S. President Harry Truman met Israeli President Chaim Weizmann shortly after Israel’s establishment in 1948. They got into a discussion about who had the tougher job. Truman said: “With respect, I’m president of 140 million people.” Weizmann retorted: “True, but I’m president of one million presidents.”

Whether it’s the political parties, the Knesset, the media, civil society, or the street, Israelis are assertive, self-critical, and reflective of a wide range of viewpoints.

It’s the Israelis who are now planning the restoration of the Carmel Forest, after a deadly fire killed 44 people and destroyed 8,000 acres of exquisite nature. Israelis took an arid and barren land and, despite the unimaginably harsh conditions, lovingly planted one tree after another, so that Israel can justifiably claim today that it’s one of the few countries with more wooded land than it had a century ago.

It’s the Israelis who, with quiet resolve and courage, are determined to defend their small sliver of land against every conceivable threat – the growing Hamas arsenal in Gaza; the dangerous build-up of missiles by Hezbollah in Lebanon; nuclear-aspiring Iran’s calls for a world without Israel; Syria’s hospitality to Hamas leaders and transshipment of weapons to Hezbollah; and enemies that shamelessly use civilians as human shields. Or the global campaign to challenge Israel’s very legitimacy and right to self-defense; the bizarre anti-Zionist coalition between the radical left and Islamic extremists; the automatic numerical majority at the UN ready to endorse, at a moment’s notice, even the most far-fetched accusations against Israel; and those in the punditocracy unable – or unwilling – to grasp the immense strategic challenges facing Israel.

Yes, it’s those Israelis who, after burying 21 young people murdered by terrorists at a Tel Aviv discotheque, don the uniform of the Israeli armed forces to defend their country, and proclaim, in the next breath, that, “They won’t stop us from dancing, either.”

That’s the country I’m proud to stand up for. No, I’d never say Israel is perfect. It has its flaws and foibles. It’s made its share of mistakes. But, then again, so has every democratic, liberal and peace-seeking country I know, though few of them have faced existential challenges every day since their birth.

The perfect is the enemy of the good, it’s said. Israel is a good country. And seeing it up close, rather than through the filter of the BBC or The Guardian, never fails to remind me why.

and more....

Since writing “How can you defend Israel?” last month, I’ve(david harris) been deluged by comments. Some have been supportive, others harshly critical. The latter warrant closer examination.

The harsh criticism falls into two basic categories. One is over the top.

It ranges from denying Israel’s very right to nationhood, to ascribing to Israel responsibility for every global malady, to peddling vague, or not so vague, anti-Semitic tropes.

There’s no point in dwelling at length on card-carrying members of these schools of thought. They’re living on another planet.

Israel is a fact. That fact has been confirmed by the UN, which, in 1947, recommended the creation of a Jewish state. The UN admitted Israel to membership in 1949. The combination of ancient and modern links between Israel and the Jewish people is almost unprecedented in history. And Israel has contributed its share, and then some, to advancing humankind.

If there are those on a legitimacy kick, let them examine the credentials of some others in the region, created by Western mapmakers eager to protect their own interests and ensure friendly leaders in power.

Or let them consider the basis for legitimacy of many countries worldwide created by invasion, occupation, and conquest. Israel’s case beats them by a mile.

And if there are people out there who don’t like all Jews, frankly, it’s their problem, not mine. Are there Jewish scoundrels? You bet. Are there Christian, Muslim, atheist and agnostic scoundrels? No shortage. But are all members of any such community by definition scoundrels? Only if you’re an out-and-out bigot.

The other group of harsh critics assails Israeli policies, but generally tries to stop short of overt anti-Zionism or anti-Semitism. But many of these relentless critics, at the slightest opportunity, robotically repeat claims about Israel that are not factually correct.

There are a couple of methodological threads that run through their analysis.

The first is called confirmation bias. This is the habit of favoring information that confirms what you believe, whether it’s true or not, and ignoring the rest.

While Israel engages in a full-throttled debate on policies and strategies, rights and wrongs, do Israel’s fiercest critics do the same? Hardly.

Can the chorus of critics admit, for example, that the UN recommended the creation of two states – one Jewish, the other Arab – and that the Jews accepted the proposal, while the Arabs did not and launched a war?

Can they acknowledge that wars inevitably create refugee populations and lead to border adjustments in favor of the (attacked) victors?

Can they recognize that, when the West Bank and Gaza were in Arab hands until 1967, there was no move whatsoever toward Palestinian statehood?

Can they explain why Arafat launched a “second intifada” just as Israel and the U.S. were proposing a path-breaking two-state solution?

Or what the Hamas Charter says about the group’s goals?

Or what armed-to-the-teeth Hezbollah thinks of Israel’s right to exist?

Or how nuclear-weapons-aspiring Iran views Israel’s future?

Or why President Abbas rejected Prime Minister Olmert’s two-state plan, when the Palestinian chief negotiator himself admitted it would have given his side the equivalent of 100 percent of the West Bank?

Or why Palestinian leaders refuse to recognize the Western Wall or Rachel’s Tomb as Jewish sites, while demanding recognition of Muslim holy sites?

Or why Israel is expected to have an Arab minority, but a state of Palestine is not expected to have any Jewish minority?

Can they admit that, when Arab leaders are prepared to pursue peace with Israel rather than wage war, the results have been treaties, as the experiences of Egypt and Jordan show?

And can they own up to the fact that when it comes to liberal and democratic values in the region, no country comes remotely close to Israel, whatever its flaws, in protecting these rights?

Apropos, how many other countries in the Middle East – or beyond – would have tried and convicted an ex-president? This was the case, just last week, with Moshe Katsav, sending the message that no one is above the law – in a process, it should be noted, presided over by an Israeli Arab justice.

And if the harsh critics can’t acknowledge any of these points, what’s the explanation? Does their antipathy for Israel – and resultant confirmation bias – blind them to anything that might puncture their airtight thinking?

Then there is the other malady. It’s called reverse causality, or switching cause and effect.

Take the case of Gaza.

These critics focus only on Israel’s alleged actions against Gaza, as if they were the cause of the problem. In reality, they are the opposite – the effect.

When Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, it gave local residents their first chance in history – I repeat, in history – to govern themselves.

Neighboring Israel had only one concern – security. It wanted to ensure that whatever emerged in Gaza would not endanger Israelis. In fact, the more prosperous, stable, and peaceful Gaza became, the better for everyone. Tragically, Israel’s worst fears were realized. Rather than focus on Gaza’s construction, its leaders – Hamas since 2007 – preferred to contemplate Israel’s destruction. Missiles and mortars came raining down on southern Israel. Israel’s critics, though, were silent. Only when Israel could no longer tolerate the terror did the critics awaken – to focus on Israel’s reaction, not Gaza’s provocative action.

Yet, what would any other nation have done in Israel’s position?

Just imagine terrorists in power in British Columbia – and Washington State’s cities and towns being the regular targets of deadly projectiles. How long would it take for the U.S. to go in and try to put a stop to the terror attacks, and what kind of force would be used?

Or consider the security barrier.

It didn’t exist for nearly 40 years. Then it was built by Israel in response to a wave of deadly attacks originating in the West Bank, with well over 1000 Israeli fatalities (more than 40,000 Americans in proportional terms). Even so, Israel made clear that such barriers cannot only be erected, but also moved and ultimately dismantled.

Yet the outcry of Israel’s critics began not when Israelis were being killed in pizzerias, at Passover Seders, and on buses, but only when the barrier went up.

Another case of reverse causality – ignoring the cause entirely and focusing only on the effect, as if it were a stand-alone issue disconnected from anything else.

So, again, in answer to the question of my erstwhile British colleague, “How can you defend Israel?” I respond: Proudly.

In doing so, I am defending a liberal, democratic, and peace-seeking nation in a rough-and-tumble neighborhood, where liberalism, democracy, and peace are in woefully short supply.

the above were written by david harris....more from him below...oh so sweet....anti's will hate this one....

In the Trenches: To the chorus of chronic, compulsive critics of Israel

Posted by David Harris

You just can't contain your rage against Israel, can you?

A mere mention of Israel and you're out of the starting gate in record time with another tirade accusing it, and its defenders, of every conceivable evil in the world - from Nazism to Apartheid, from blood libel to mass murder.

The facts be damned - they only get in the way of your outrageous assertions and gross distortions. You follow the approach recommended by Lenin: "A lie told often enough becomes the truth."

Your narrative is pre-cooked, airtight and impervious to reason. It's filled with a hatred of Israel that eludes logical explanation, a blindness that shuts out any contrary evidence.

For you, Israel can do no right other than to close up shop and call it quits, while the Palestinians, your hallowed victims on a pedestal, can do no wrong.

Strikingly, all this is done in the name of such vaunted values as democracy, legitimacy and an end to occupation.

Yet you interpret and apply those values in rather strange ways.

Take democracy.

Israel is a democracy. Much as you may breathlessly try to dismiss the notion, it's a fact.

Israel has free and fair elections, smooth transfers of power and an independent judiciary. It has a wide array of political parties, a freewheeling parliament, including members who have openly cavorted with the country's enemies, and a feisty press. It has a well-developed civil society and countless human-rights and civil-rights groups. It protects freedom of worship for all. It has a vibrant gay community. It has strong labor unions. And minority communities enjoy legal protections.

No, Israel may not be perfect - and I would never suggest otherwise - but, then again, what democracy is, especially one so young and subjected to so many challenges to its very existence? But democracies, by their very nature, invite self-criticism and improvement.

Now take a look at Israel's neighborhood.

For all your purported concern about defending democracy - or freedom or human dignity - why is your voice on mute?

Could it be that your real ideal is a Hamas-run society, with its all-enveloping political and religious suffocation, relegation of women to the status of virtual male property, intimidation of the tiny Christian community, unadulterated anti-Semitism and reverence for the cult of violence?

If your world view is defined by the belief that Palestinians are mistreated, then why not a peep about their condition in, say, Lebanon?

Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have lived in Lebanon for decades, yet by law they are excluded from working in dozens of professions, have no right to own property and have limited access to healthcare. Is this acceptable to you? Have you petitioned the Lebanese government to respect their human dignity? If so, please don't keep it a secret.

In fact, why not go a step further and expose the absurdity of a flotilla heading from Lebanon to Gaza to "assist" the Palestinians? Whatever happened to the notion that "charity begins at home"?

And, dare I ask, when was the last time you spoke out in protest against the treatment of women, gays, religious minorities, labor activists and human-rights defenders in the larger Middle East?

You talk about legitimacy, accusing Israel of being an "illegitimate" state.

Israel is an entirely legitimate state.

From the Balfour Declaration to the League of Nations Mandate, from the recommendation of the United Nations Special Committee on Palestine to the overwhelming vote of the UN General Assembly, Israel's foundation is rock-solid. In fact, it's far stronger than that of most other countries.

And I'm not even invoking the Jewish people's ancient history and literature, and the findings of archaeology to support it, relevant though they are.

Not only is the nation entirely legitimate, but so is its government, a product of the periodic expression of the will of its people.

But if you're truly seized by questions of legitimacy, why not examine some of Israel's neighbors?

You'll discover a few uncomfortable truths.

First, their historical legitimacy is questionable, the result either of conquest or cynical European leaders drawing borders at will. And second - as in Syria, for instance - political legitimacy derives more from the bullet than the ballot, and from the entrenched notion of filial dynasties.

Either way, it doesn't do much for the legitimacy case.

And then there is the "end to occupation."

Since the 1967 war, Israel, unlike many nations victorious in battles of self-defense, has withdrawn from lands it seized.

It gave back to Egypt the vast Sinai region, with its oil fields and strategic depth, withdrew from Gaza and yielded to Jordan on border issues. It has also pulled all its troops out of southern Lebanon and dramatically lowered its profile in much of the West Bank. And it has repeatedly declared its readiness to embrace a far-reaching two-state solution with the Palestinians that would entail further territorial sacrifices.

Israel, so small that it's barely a speck on world maps, has one overriding preoccupation - security. Until the Palestinians finally get their act together and pursue peace seriously and credibly, Israel has every right to act against groups operating in Gaza and the West Bank that stockpile weapons and plot terrorist attacks.

Any other nation defending itself would act similarly - or, perhaps, more ruthlessly and with less regard for the well-being of civilians cynically used by enemies as human shields.

But those of you in the chorus of chronic, compulsive critics of Israel blithely ignore Israel's withdrawals to date and repeated offers of peace, instead robotically hammering away at the "evils of occupation" - by which you presumably mean Israel's very existence, irrespective of its borders.

Yet again revealing your rank hypocrisy, the chorus is strangely silent when it comes to other occupations.

Take, for instance, Cyprus. The island has been divided since 1974, there are tens of thousands of Turkish troops in the northern part, and it is an open secret that the Turkish government generously encourages thousands of settlers - yes, settlers - to move there from Turkey and shift the demographic balance.

Any chance that the chorus will speak up? It hasn't since 1974, and is unlikely to start now. After all, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has positioned himself as the champion of Hamas - and, for the chorus, that must be a dream come true. Why jeopardize it?

Winston Churchill faced his own chorus of chronic, compulsive critics who willfully tuned out obvious truths when he sought to alert the world to the great dangers of the 20th century.

He famously said: "Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."

Sounds as if he had people like you in mind.

 

TIMING

3:54 PM ET

February 3, 2012

who are the peacemakers...from abe foxman's blog...

Who Are The Peacemakers

For decades there existed two obvious criteria to determine who was serious about making peace between Israel and the Arabs or Palestinians and who was standing in the way of peace.

The first, and most basic standard, was whether a party was ready to negotiate with the other on the basis of accepting the other’s legitimacy. The second was, once negotiations commenced, what did the parties put on the table to demonstrate that they were negotiating in good faith.

From the day of the decision by the United Nations on November 29, 1947 to partition Palestine into two states, one Jewish, one Arab, the Arab states and the indigenous Palestinian Arab community made clear that they would not accept the legitimacy of the Jewish state nor negotiate peace with it. The most famous expression of this determination took place several months after the 1967 Six Day War, when the Arab League met in Khartoum and declared the three nos: no peace, no recognition, no negotiations. This at a time when Israel had hopes that after the war, the Arabs, recognizing that Israel was too strong to be eliminated, would begin to think differently about dealing with Israel. It was clear that the obstacle to peace lay on the Arab side.

In the ensuing years there have been several shifts that affect this assessment of who are the peacemakers. Two Arab states, Egypt and Jordan, not only agreed to negotiate with Israel on the basis of Israel’s legitimacy but negotiated in good faith and reached peace agreements with the Jewish state. Unfortunately, the willingness of other Arab states to do likewise has not been evident.

At the same time, the focus of the conflict shifted from the Israel-Arab sphere to the Israeli-Palestinian arena. Whether this was a logical or useful transition is a subject for another discussion, but it happened and came to dominate the diplomatic focus.

Until the Oslo process and the agreement on the White House lawn between Israeli Prime Minister Yitzak Rabin and Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat, the evidence as to who was interested in peace was clearcut. The Palestine Liberation Organization rejected Israel’s right to exist and negotiations were not on the agenda.

After Oslo, whatever interpretation one would give to Palestinian intentions, the issue of the unwillingness to negotiate based on the other’s legitimacy had now shifted. Now both sides were negotiating.

From that point onwards, what happened at negotiations, whether during the Oslo process, the Camp David talks in 2000 or the Annapolis process in 2007, determined the perception of who was truly interested in peace. The greatest moment of clarity in this regard took place after the collapse of the Camp David talks when President Bill Clinton let the world know that he believed Arafat was responsible for the collapse, that Prime Minister Ehud Barak had made a substantial offer to the Palestinians that deserved consideration. It was clear then that Israel was the peacemaker and the Palestinians continued to be seen as the obstacle to peace.

While there has been some revisionist history written about what happened at Camp David, what is most significant for this discussion is that there was a general assumption, as had existed for years, that the way to assess who was interested in peace remained the two criteria: a willingness to negotiate and how one negotiated.

That has now changed, and this is a disturbing and destructive development. For the last two years, the Palestinians have refused to negotiate with the Israelis. The role the Obama Administration played in all this by making an Israeli settlement freeze a precondition to negotiations has been well documented.

What is significant, however, in terms of broad international reaction to this vacuum is that a change has taken place in evaluating who is a peacemaker. And it is a change that not only is detrimental to Israel’s image but is harmful to efforts to foster peace. The fact that the Palestinians have refused to negotiate no longer seems to be seen as a basis for saying they are the main obstacle to peace. Not negotiating is no longer the standard for a non-peacemaker. Instead Israel, which has said repeatedly it is ready to negotiate immediately, is held accountable.

Let me be clear: If negotiations would start and Israel would not make a satisfactory offer to the Palestinians, then there could be grounds for criticism of the Jewish state. But to drop the standard that has served so well for so long (it was significant eventually in bringing Egypt and Jordan to peace) is an error of major proportions.

It is time for the world to get back to basics and demand that the Palestinians return now to the negotiating table.

 

JOHNBOY4546

8:25 PM ET

February 3, 2012

TIMIING has obviously been given new operating instructions.

He has been tasked with the job of swamping talkbacks via the magic of Ctrl-C and Ctrl-V.

Quite how that is meant to impress anybody is.... nope, I got nothin'.

 

MSAM

3:38 PM ET

February 4, 2012

New rule, if you cant make a

New rule, if you cant make a concise arguement in three paragraphs or less save your breath.

 

AREN HAICH

6:33 PM ET

February 4, 2012

The missing point

A point sorely missed by most observers of the rising tension between the West and Iran is that even the most foolhardy and hawkish advocates of war with Iran know that for as long as the military conflict is confined to conventional weapons, and a land invasion to affect a regime change is ruled out, Iran would be in the position to dictate the inevitable process of escalation or de-escalation which would follow.

And this is not an outcome that the proponents of war with Iran have in mind. They hope that after the conflict gets started the pain of continuing the conventional war for the West will hopefully become so great that it becomes natural for the public opinions in America and Europe to accept the use of nuclear weapons against Iran in order to end the war.

The US has at no point renounced the first use nuclear weapons even against a non-nuclear nation. It has also been said that: what is the point of having weapons if you are not going to use them.

Even then – that is after America or Israel have dropped their first nuclear bombs on Iran – it is not at all given that Iran will stop fighting and surrender.

 

JOHNNCRICK

6:59 AM ET

February 5, 2012

wwiii coming

An Israeli raid on Iran's nuclear facilities would deliver a painful shock to the global economy.

daybed covers

 

SPOOD

1:42 PM ET

February 5, 2012

Let me reiterate the silliness of this discussion

An Israeli strike only has any reasonable chance of success IF IT IS DONE SECRETLY.

Its not like Iran doesn't have AA capabilities or there are any guarantees Israel can fly over Arab airspace.

Nobody in the region has the strength to put boots on the ground for anything which could possibly upset the Iranian regime, including the US. At best airstrikes would just be a temporary nuisance.

Announcing to the world when something like this has a likelihood of occurring means its probably never going to happen. These sort of things don't get debated openly. If we are talking about it now, its probably bullshit.

Obviously both Iran and Israel are using these tensions for internal political gain.

Iran is hoping for a "rally around the flag" effect. A way to shore up internal support in the wake of a growing demographic based dissent.

Israel's right wing is using it as leverage against less belicose political opponents. Kind of like in the US claiming that the other party is "soft on terrorism".

This is Kim Jong Il all over again, only this time the discussion is bolstered by foreigners with specific agendas to muck things up.
(Many of you guys don't honesty support the Iranian regime but just are looking for a dig at Israel and the US)

 

SPOOD

12:16 AM ET

February 6, 2012

Nice try, but its still silly

"Maybe we can taunt the rabbit until he makes a mistake"

"Like what?"
---
More likely than not this whole thing will be finished with some kind of secret backroom deal cut with Iran. Some kind of big bribe like we did with Kim Jong.

You also confuse the '67 war with the '73 war. The war talk was all from the Arabs in '67 along with the bellicose posturing (and tons of very obvious arms sales). The Israelis were the ones who sprang the surprise without a hint of warning. In 73 the Israelis didn't bother to listen to their own intelligence (and warnings from the government of Jordan) and got surprised. But there was hardly the kind of obvious and open talk of action between either party there.

No, if they are talking about expecting an Israeli strike as something this imminent, its all posturing.

Its just not all that likely from a practical standpoint. Even less so if you are talking about it so openly.

Unlike Iraq in the early 80's, an attack on Iran involves passing over a lot of unfriendly skies Jordan more or less looked the other way in the raid on Osirak.
-Israel does not have stealth bombers.
-Iran has tons of air defenses built up since the end of the war with Iraq.
-Iran could easily put its most important elements underground and dispersed out of reach from all but massive strikes on the entire country.

 

SPOOD

10:31 AM ET

February 6, 2012

A little bit of misrepresentation by Sin Nombre

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/israeli-warnings-on-iran-war-are-more-than-empty-threats-1.411090

You are making the mistake of claiming a writer's opinion was the actual quote of the person you were referencing. The writer was saying how Israel seems to be acting like Sadat did in 1973.

Frankly it doesn't hold up. Sadat actually was avoiding bellicose rhetoric and even making overt signs of preparing for invasion until it happened. Most of the buildup before that war was rather secret and subtle. This is much different than broadcasting to the world an intention to attack.

Even if Netanyahu wanted, he can't rush to war that quickly.

"Barak and Netanyahu are speaking in a l'etat, c'est moi manner, but Section 40 of the Basic Law on the Government says "the state may only begin a war pursuant to a government [cabinet] decision." The two of them, the eight-member inner cabinet and the 18-member security cabinet don't have the authority to launch a planned war, as opposed to a hurried response to a surprise attack or a rush to use "means in the hands of the Prime Minister's Office," as the Defense Ministry's legal adviser put it in a 2003 Knesset debate. "

Its still Chicken Little-ing for effect here. One should be more worried about a lack of a response. That would indicate a seriousness of action where the press would be deemed as a hindrance. As long as they are bellowing, nothing is going to happen.

 

PULLER58

10:44 PM ET

February 5, 2012

Bombing, bombing, bombing

Whether inspectors are on the ground or not, the ultimate question remains whether Israel's security experts actually know what is good for Israel. (Given the history of Israel's wars with its neighbors, you have reason to be dubious of their competance.) Granted, Iran is likely of the same mindset as North Korea in that the key to their regime surviving is to ensure the rest of the world leaves them alone by having nukes. So would bombing do anything to improve the situation? Granted, Israel pulled off bombing Saddam Hussein and Bashaar Al Assad's regimes and getting away with it. Iran is a tougher nut to crack. The fervor of the Revolutionary guards would suggest that they would be inclined to strike back at the Jewish state. So where does that leave the US? Frankly, the US is simply too beholden to AIPAC to do much more than meekly accept whatever Israel does. Before the screaming starts about anti-semiticism, the fact remains that Israel doesn't appear concerned about the wellbeing of the US, which is hardly a sign of an ally.

 

SPOOD

12:28 AM ET

February 6, 2012

You are really ignorant

>>Given the history of Israel's wars with its neighbors, you have reason to be dubious of their competance.

Considering none of their neighbors have much of taste for trying to destroy Israel anymore through conventional conflict, that would make them pretty damn competent.

Actually North Korea's program seems to be designed specifically to cause an international incident and hit up its neighbors for a big bribe. Iran's doesn't look altogether different. They are trying to make people jumpy.

Both regimes play at being unpredictable and helmed by people who are supposedly crazy and just don't give a damn. The reality is playing the madman means you can be taken far more seriously than the situation really demands.

>>>Before the screaming starts about anti-semiticism, the fact remains that Israel doesn't appear concerned about the wellbeing of the US, which is hardly a sign of an ally.

No the screaming warranted. You are taking an anti-Semitic argument as an article on faith and making a rather ignorant conclusion. The "Israel Lobby controls the US" is simply a new form of old the same old bullshit. In the past they would just call them "The Jewish Bankers", Elders of Zion" or "Great Zionist Conspiracy"

The thing about Israel's posturing is, it means America doesn't have to. Iran is bluffing. By now it is probably obvious to the US government as well.

The US doesn't want to appear that it is ignoring what the public thinks is a major international incident. But it also doesn't want to look like it is acting recklessly either. Israel's right wing is playing this up because it makes their political opponents look ineffectual and dangerously weak.

Its all puffery which is going to end with some kind of payoff to Iran behind closed doors.

 

BEINGTHERE

3:44 PM ET

February 6, 2012

The American People Are Tired of Obama's Parlor Games

Polls show Obama having somewhat of a cakewalk back into office in November, but when the air clears, what does he have to offer the American people for Term Two? He has been the President of Great Distractions - endless photo opps. and speeches, Hollywood-style murderous raids by SEALs, a body count of bad guy enemies. But can he be reelected if most Americans don't understand, or even know, his administration's foreign policy? What are the standards or set of beliefs that guide this man? As Commander in Chief, he needs to give voters/taxpayers a hint before November. The wars were major campaign issues in 2008. Their aftermath should be a bigger issue in 2012.

In the meantime, in reference to the link below, I find this article disturbing. No one is being called into account about the Afghan War. That's Obama's War. Naturally, he doesn't want to respond to whistleblower information - even if it is credible in light of other information revealed about severe mismanagement of the war. We have had two wars commanded in part by our current CIA director, mentioned in this article. Media and elected officials allow the administration and Pentagon to shrug it off. Will November voters be okay with this?
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/06/world/asia/army-colonel-challenges-pentagons-afghanistan-claims.html?_r=1

 

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