The New York Times Magazine is out today with a 7,585-word piece by Ronen Bergman on whether Israel will attack Iran. After speaking with top Israeli civilian, military, and intelligence leaders, the Israeli journalist arrives at a frightening conclusion: "Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012."

Of course, we've heard this claim before. In August 2009, Micah Zenko warned at the Los Angeles Times that if Iran failed to respond to international proposals on its nuclear program by September, the "world should be prepared for an Israeli attack on Iran's suspected nuclear weapons facilities." In September 2010, the Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg noted that "one day next spring," Israeli officials might very well inform their U.S. counterparts that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had dispatched fighter jets to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. John Bolton, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, has repeatedly issued timelines regarding an Israeli strike on Iran. Anshel Pfeffer predicts an attack this spring.

But Bergman's report does serve up some new, newsworthy information that's worth highlighting:

Three Questions: Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak explains that there are three questions Israel must answer in the affirmative before it will order a strike (Bergman adds that some Israeli leaders are now answering yes to all three):

1. Does Israel have the ability to cause severe damage to Iran's nuclear sites and bring about a major delay in the Iranian nuclear project? And can the military and the Israeli people withstand the inevitable counterattack?

2. Does Israel have overt or tacit support, particularly from America, for carrying out an attack?

3. Have all other possibilities for the containment of Iran's nuclear threat been exhausted, bringing Israel to the point of last resort? If so, is this the last opportunity for an attack?

Point of no return: Barak says that sometime in the coming year, it will become impossible for Israel to halt Iran's nuclear program even if it wants to do so. He believes Iran is close to entering an "immunity zone" -- a point, in Bergman's words, "when Iran's accumulated know-how, raw materials, experience, and equipment (as well as the distribution of materials among its underground facilities) -- will be such that an attack could not derail the nuclear project." Israel estimates that Iran is only nine months away from this point, Bergman adds, while the United States has a timeframe of 15 months.

Iran's nuclear readiness: "It is believed that Iran's nuclear scientists estimate that it will take them nine months, from the moment they are given the order, to assemble their first explosive device and another six months to be able to reduce it to the dimensions of a payload for their Shahab-3 missiles, which are capable of reaching Israel," Bergman writes.

Israeli capabilities: While Israel believes that its manned and unmanned aircraft "have the capacity to cause enough damage to set the Iranian nuclear project back by three to five years," Bergman explains, others -- like Mossad operative Rafi Eitan -- don't believe that Israel has the capabilities to attack Iran effectively and definitively. 

Natanz leak: Bergman reports what until now had generally been the subject of speculation: When Israel discovered the existence of an Iranian uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz in 2002, then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon decided not to authorize an attack. Instead, Bergman explains, "information about the site was leaked to a dissident Iranian group, the National Resistance Council." The news eventually made its way to the International Atomic Energy Agency, which sent a team of inspectors to the site.

Two viruses: We've all heard about Stuxnet, but Bergman writes that "two lethal computer viruses" infected "the computer system of the nuclear project and cause widespread damage, knocking out a large number of centrifuges."

American suspicion: Bergman quotes a 2009 memo in which an anonymous American official notes, "It is unclear if the Israelis firmly believe [that Iran would have a complete nuclear arsenal by 2012] or are using worst-case estimates to raise greater urgency from the United States." But Bergman adds that "Western intelligence agencies, in particular the CIA, have moved closer to Israel's assessments of the Iranian nuclear project."

Israeli suspicion: The Israelis, for their part, are worried that the United States has abandoned its aggressive posture toward Iran. "The Israelis find evidence of this in the shift in language used by the administration, from 'threshold prevention' -- meaning American resolve to stop Iran from having a nuclear-energy program that could allow for the ability to create weapons -- to 'weapons prevention,' which means the conditions can exist, but there is an American commitment to stop Iran from assembling an actual bomb," Bergman writes.

Egypt analogue: Bergman quotes a fascinating conversation between former Mossad chief Meir Amit and former CIA chief in Tel Aviv John Hadden in 1967, in the lead-up to the Six-Day War. Amit argues that Israel should preemptively attack Egypt and Hadden responds, "Help us by giving us a good reason to come in on your side. Get them to fire at something, a ship, for example." According to Bergman, the exchange demonstrates that "since 1967, the unspoken understanding that America should agree, at least tacitly, to Israeli military actions has been at the center of relations between the two countries."

Latin America connection: Moshe Ya'alon, Israel's vice prime minister and minister of strategic affairs, suggests that Iran is establishing bases in Latin America and developing relationships with drug cartels along the U.S.-Mexican border to smuggle ordnance into the United States for use in attacks. "It is, of course, important for Ya'alon to argue that this is not just an Israeli-Iranian dispute, but a threat to America's well-being," Bergman points out.

Israeli Defense Ministry via Getty Images

 

LEONIDASLEONIDAS

5:51 AM ET

January 26, 2012

I hope it doesn't come to a strike

But I completely understand the Israeli position.
If nothing else can be done, Israel should do everything it can to destroy Iran's nuclear program.

 

ZORRO

7:47 AM ET

January 26, 2012

The Usual

Exactly how many times has Israel cried "wolf" the last 10 years? 20?
If Obama loses the election the odds of an attack goes up during the
lame duck period. Otherwise I won't hold my breath.

 

SPOOD

3:13 PM ET

January 26, 2012

And what has Iran done during that time?

1. Made gestures about wiping Israel off the map
2. Accelerated efforts to enrich uranium in a ridiculously public manner
3. Made a big show about its ability to fire ballistic missiles and closing off the Persian Gulf

Israel may be crying wolf but Iran is outside the house making noises.

I don't see an attack coming any time soon. Iran is bluffing, Israel doesn't have the capabilities to do more than delay any program for a few years.

If Iran was really serious about making nukes, we would not be having this discussion. Iran would be acting a lot more discreet about atomic power in general, as to avoid suspicion.

They are pulling a Kim Jong Il. Playing games with nuclear weapons potential for the purposes of driving neighbors crazy.

 

JACOB BLUES

5:02 PM ET

January 26, 2012

Looking at the past 10 years Zorro?

Iran has armed, financed, provided intelligence for, and trained, Hizballah and HAMAS.

Iran has shipped literally tons of weapons (the Karine-A) that was sent to Yasser Arafat.

Has supplied Hizballah, a non-government private ethnic militia/terrorist group (pick your term) with somewhere in the neighborhood of 40,000 to 50,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israeli cities.

Has likely provided support for Syria's nuclear reactor that was destroyed four years ago.

Israel has a reason to be concerned with Iran.

 

JACOB BLUES

5:09 PM ET

January 26, 2012

Here's the problem with your argument Spood

The Financial Times of London reports that Iran's banks are offering depositers interest rates of 21% to help try to stem the free-fall of the Iranian Rial.

Black market exchange rates are reported at 23,000 Rials to $1 US Dollar. That's down from 9,000 several months ago, a plunge of more than 100%.

There is talk of hoarding food, gold, and foreign currency in Iran.

None of this are measures for a prosporus economy, and one where the electorate would continue with the current party in power.

Or, given how many Iranians came out in favor of change last election, that perhaps a new revolution is at hand in Tehran (though your guess is as good as mine on that one).

 

MUNSIFMIZAAJ

6:11 PM ET

February 3, 2012

Wishful thinking, I'd say

The west have been wishing it for 33 years.
They thought 'the frail old mullah' will succumb to the onslaught of their 'son of a bitch', Saddam, within a few days. Instead, the mullah fought for ten years.
They hoped to destroy Iran's military capability by not supplying the aircraft parts. Instead, Iran is now manufacturing fighter jets, missiles, sub-marines and the lot.
There is till time to mend your ways, else, I'm afraid more disappointments are coming your way.
Learn to live with others as equals!

 

TARQUINIS

1:03 PM ET

January 26, 2012

Israeli assault on Iran is WWIII

William Pfaff writes: If they (the Iranians) intend to produce nuclear weapons,
it is to possess a deterrent to foreign aggression. The Israelis,
another highly intelligent and well-educated people, also know
nuclear history. Their present policy is not based on fear of a
nuclear attack by Iran (or by an Iranian proxy). It is calculated to
prevent the United States from imposing on Israel a solution to its
relationship with the Palestinians. They do not wish a permanent
legal frontier dividing them from some new and recognized Palestinian
state -- a frontier sponsored and also guaranteed by the United
States, as well as by international law...

Zionism is racism and unending war; Like it, or leave it.

 

SPOOD

3:22 PM ET

January 26, 2012

Spoken like the Iranian ministry of Propaganda!

Because we all know about how Israel has threatened Iran or any of its neighbors with nuclear weapons.

After all Israel didn't even reveal its nuclear arsenal to the public when it was being attacked on 2 fronts in 1973. The US didn't even know about it until years after the fact. Yep, its surely a case of nuclear blackmail on the part of Israel

We also know what great zeal the US has in pursuing peace plans between Israel and the Palestinians. The only president to bother to get involved was Bill Clinton. That was only because he was looking for a legacy that didn't involve oral sex in the Oval Office. Clinton made a hash of it and nobody really wanted to pursue it ever since. GWB and the "roadmap for peace", a way to duck the issue. Barry Big Ears has been ignoring it from day one.

Besides, its not like you are a big fan of a 2 (or 3 these days) state solution. I am, but that is because I don't have ulterior motives involving the destruction of Israel or the Palestinians.

"Zionism is racism and unending war; Like it, or leave it."

Leave it. You are an uninformed shill for terrorists and autocrats.

 

MUNSIFMIZAAJ

5:59 PM ET

February 3, 2012

 

KAMATH

10:20 AM ET

February 15, 2012

Iran is more sane- Really?

If you were to study history of Islam, you will notice that more Muslims were slaughtered by Muslims very moment Muhammad's body was lowered to nthe ground.

Just in the recent history alone: Open your eyes and see what has happened in Iraq-Iran war, Middle-eastern turbulence, Libya, Egypt,Syria, Iraq and finally Pakistani Muslims killing their own kind. In Iran during the islamic Revolution Iranian history has a just blodied killing their own kind.

Don't tell me Allah knows everything!!

 

LAMINATION00

4:15 AM ET

February 7, 2012

I have been curious about

I have been curious about this topic and decided to do some research. Your article has some useful information. Do you have any more on this subject?
Registered Nurse Salary

 

SABABA03

6:50 PM ET

February 10, 2012

The real objective

Considering that, between the sever sanctions, Threat of military strike on their nuclear sites, from some of the most powerful forces in the world, The Mullahs are just about to lose their puppet in Syria, thus rendering Hizbollah & Hamas useless to them. 80% of their population no longer support it, civil unrest, riots in the streets, losing their top scientists, All its neighbors are ready to help to overthrow the Mullahs. All designed to destabilize the regime, and through internal revolt - It seems we are not only in to neutralizes their nuclear programs - It is about regime change.

 

XX

3:38 PM ET

February 11, 2012

More lies from the Imperial war machine

"Bergman reports what until now had generally been the subject of speculation: When Israel discovered the existence of an Iranian uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz in 2002, then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon decided not to authorize an attack. Instead, Bergman explains, "information about the site was leaked to a dissident Iranian group, the National Resistance Council." The news eventually made its way to the International Atomic Energy Agency, which sent a team of inspectors to the site. "

So you're telling me that - if the 'evidence' of nuclear armaments building were credible - instead of Mossad conveying the evidence directly to the IAEA, they'd instead "leak" it to a fringe dissident group, the Nat'l Resistance Council and then have them leak it to the IAEA?

Rather, it sounds like Israeli intel was attempting to bolster the credibility of its manufactured 'evidence' by having it first appear as if it were being discovered by an independent, disinterested party.

Former IAEA inspector, nuclear physicist Robert Kelley is highly skeptical of the report and gives an interesting interview on its inconsistencies and lack of transparency on the Real News Network:

"Former IAEA Inspector: Misleading Iran Report Proves Nothing
Robert Kelley: Latest IAEA report recycles old intelligence and is meant to bolster hard liners"
-November 15, 2011

"IAEA Iran Report Fit Facts to Strengthen Hardliners
Robert Kelley Pt2: The report misleads and manipulates facts in attempt to prove a forgone conclusion"
-November 17, 2011

"Former IAEA Inspector Calls for Transparency on All Sides
Robert Kelley: The IAEA should allow peer review of its data, Iran should resolve outstanding questions"
- January 20, 2012

Even if Iran were to obtain a nuclear missile, it is no match for Israel's 250-300 nuclear missiles. But Foreign Policy magazine doesn't like to talk about those.

"Moshe Ya'alon, Israel's vice prime minister and minister of strategic affairs, suggests that Iran is establishing bases in Latin America and developing relationships with drug cartels along the U.S.-Mexican border to smuggle ordnance into the United States for use in attacks"

This is preposterous balderdash nonsense. Clearly, a terrorist attack on US soil or forces would be the single most unstrategic move for the Iranian leadership imaginable. The US oil-hungry hawks - the same who killed its democratically elected president in 1953 along with the MI6 and scores upon scores of leaders throughout Latin America and Africa - have been trying to pin terrorism links on the Isalmic Republic for years. Such a move would provide a carte blanche causus belli and mandate for Iraq-style shock and awe, Carthage-in-flames destruction. If anything, Ahmadinejad is trying to strengthen ties with Bolivarian Alliance member states or sympathizers in order to buffer the effects of unjustified EU, US and Japanese trade embargos. Iran is simply practicing a last-resort diplomacy push to keep itself from falling into the pit of complete financial ruin under the draconian measures. It is negotiating deals with China for oil and rail for the same purposes. Now that the US has decided to pursue a full-out cold war on China, perhaps Beijing will be slightly more sympathetic.

Let us not forget that the US paid billions to Saddam to invade Iran in the 1980s so that it could divide up the spoils. Let us not forget that it was Israel/US forces that illegally killed its physicists and bombed a legal nuclear facility during the last 10 years.

If anything, if we are to be calling for a nuclear-free Iran, we need to be calling for the de-nuclearization of Iran's nearest threat: Israel. Mohammed Mossadegh forever bears witness.

 

MARTY24

11:42 AM ET

February 13, 2012

Time to get serious

Several writers treat Itran as though its policy were based on the same realist considerations they wish other countries had adopted. This is either wishful thinking or active disinformation.

Iran's leadership is dedicated to bringing on the Muslim apocalypse which, in their theology, will lead to the final triumph of Islam everywhere in the world. Ahmadinejad in particular claims that the "Hidden Imam" is speaking to him from the bottom of the well where he has been hiding for some thirteen centuries, and telling him what Allah wants him to do to bring this about. That apocalypse follows a period of widespread chaos and devastating wars throughout the world as Muslim forces kill the infidels and impose their faith on everyone who isn't a true-enough Muslim. Is it not totally clear where possessing nuclear weapons fits into this scenario?

That this vision sounds nuts to those of us in the West doesn't mean the Iranian leadership doesn't espouse this objective. That is why anyone who understands the situation and doesn't share the objective MUST act to prevent Iran from acquiring these weapons. That our Islamist-Firster president really is doing nothing tells us more about him than it does about the seriousness of the threat.

 

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