In a bombshell revelation sure to reverberate around the world, the Washington Post quotes a senior U.S. intelligence official seeming to suggest that the United States' goal in Iran is now the collapse of the regime. The story's headline: "Goal of Iran sanctions is regime collapse, U.S. official says."

I say "suggest" because the Post never directly quotes the official saying outright that regime change is the policy. Here's the key passage:

The goal of U.S. and other sanctions against Iran is regime collapse, a senior U.S. intelligence official said, offering the clearest indication yet that the Obama administration is at least as intent on unseating Iran's government as it is on engaging with it.

The official, speaking this week on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, said the administration hopes that sanctions "create enough hate and discontent at the street level" that Iranians will turn against their government.

What's more, the story's authors -- Karen DeYoung and Scott Wilson, two very seasoned and careful reporters -- also spoke with a "senior administration official" who contradicted that line:

A senior administration official, speaking separately, acknowledged that public discontent was a likely result of more punitive sanctions against Iran's already faltering economy. But this official said it was not the administration's intent to press the Iranian people toward an attempt to oust their government.

"The notion that we've crossed into sanctions being about regime collapse is incorrect," the administration official said. "We still very much have a policy that is rooted in the notion that you need to supply sufficient pressure to compel [the government] to change behavior as it's related to their nuclear program."

Dennis Ross, a top Middle East advisor who recently left the White House, also told De Young and Wilson that regime change was not the goal of the sanctions. And he should know, because he helped design them.

So what's going on? I suspect that the first source, the "senior U.S. intelligence official," may have misspoken, or been somehow misinterpreted. Pursuing regime change in a well-armed country of 78 million is no small matter, nor is it the sort of thing that can be ascertained from a blind quote that's immediately contradicted by other sources. (It's also very much worth noting that the harshest sanctions -- on Iran's central bank -- were imposed by Congress over the White House's objections.) 

Still, as my colleague Dan Drezner noted yesterday, the Obama team may be hoping that sanctions can open up fissures within the Iranian regime and provoke internal political strife -- thus giving the United States and its allies more leverage. That's not quite the same thing as regime change, however.

It's important to remember that Iranians themselves haven't called en masse for regime change. The protests that broke out over the stolen 2009 presidential election were mainly about calling for a recount or a revote, not about bringing down the entire clerical system. More Iranians may eventually conclude that "everything must go," but as far as we can tell they aren't there yet.

There is a certain political appeal in calling for regime change in Iran, I'll admit. Obama is being pilloried daily by the Republican presidential hopefuls for not doing enough to stop Iran's nuclear program, and he seems highly unlikely to agree to a bombing campaign that may or may not succeed in doing the job. But if he can say that he's trying to overthrow the mullahs rather than negotiate with them, he might be able to neutralize that line of attack. That's probably a bad idea, and it's no way to make foreign policy, but it wouldn't be the first time an American politician behaved like, well, a politician.

UPDATE: The Post has now changed its headline, substantially revised the top of the story, and appended a correction. The new headline reads: "Public ire one goal of Iran sanctions, U.S. official says." That's more like it.

 

DELTA22

7:23 PM ET

January 10, 2012

m

I'd still rather have a president who's pressured into reluctantly taking a hard line, than one who does so with glee.

 

ZORRO

8:13 PM ET

January 10, 2012

How Could It Not Be About Regime Change?

Either the Iranian government agrees to Iran not having the same rights as other countries (and letting the US decide what those rights should be) or it faces continually harsher sanctions.
Is either of those cases likely to leave the Iranian regime in power?
I pity the Iranian people that, no doubt, will bear the brunt of the sanctions.

 

DIANA RELKE

4:08 AM ET

January 11, 2012

Regime change?

In your dreams, Obama (and Bibi).

 

GRANT

8:36 AM ET

January 11, 2012

I find it amusing that about

I find it amusing that about half of the current comments are spam.

In any case it's also possible that there are actually several higher-up officials who have much bigger ambitions for these sanctions than just leverage, they may very well want regime change. If so there's going to be plenty more arguments over the next year.

 

SPOOD

11:41 AM ET

January 11, 2012

Obama is going through the motions

He is doing as little as he can but still look like he is addressing the situation.

The guy has enough problems on his plate domestically to bother with this and it shows in the kinds of actions the US is taking.

Of course if the Iranian regime changes, it would be a happy bonus for everyone who isn't forced to wear a beard by law. But I don't see a real concerted effort to bring it about.

 

ZATHRAS

5:40 PM ET

January 11, 2012

The Brass Ring of Iran Policy...

...may simply be maintaining equilibrium among factions in Washington with radically different ideas as to how to proceed.

Sanctions are not war, which is appreciated by the many people who can read a map well enough to know that attempting to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capability development by force is impractical. Sanctions are also not normalization, which people (including President Obama's most dedicated political opponents) who think a working Iranian nuclear weapon would be disastrous like.

Tightening sanctions indicates movement, something most people in Washington seem to prize, even or perhaps especially because movement on Iraq does not seem to be possible in any other form. It also conveys multilateralism, which the Obama administration cherishes. The idea that sanctions could increase discontent with the Tehran regime in Iran itself is attractive, because all of Washington fell in love with the Arab Spring narrative of oppressed peoples choosing on their own to rise up peacefully, or not, against oppressive governments. If that could happen in Arab countries, why not in Iran?

OK then. Here's my problem: I keep hearing reports that Iranians -- outside the regime itself -- don't understand the reason for sanctions, let alone the reason for new or tightened sanctions. That's what one would expect if the real objective of our current policy were to maintain peace in Washington among all the people who are sure we need an Iran policy but who cannot agree among themselves about what that policy ought to strive for. It's not a good thing.

"Reaching out" to the Iranian government at this point -- unless one believes that we ought to be negotiating based on giving the Iranians everything they want without asking anything in return -- is, to be sure, unattractive at the present time. Too many powerful figures in an Iran struggling with economic and other difficulties are too deeply invested in hostility to the American superpower for dramatic gestures to lead anywhere.

I really don't think, though, we ought to be proceeding as if it were self-evident to the Iranian public why the United States and its allies are doing what they are with respect to sanctions. The Obama administration does now appear to have placed itself at risk of being defined, within Iran, entirely by the least reasonable people in the Iranian government. That's not a desirable state of affairs, but in the absence of a more active approach to our public diplomacy that where we will end up if we're not there already.

 

AARKY

11:29 PM ET

January 11, 2012

It's all Based on a Huge Lie

All these damnable sanctions ,embargos, and saber rattling is based on the grand lie that Iran is building or has the capability to build a nuke. Obama could get all the votes that have so far gone to Ron Paul if he gets a political backbone and kicks butt and uses a sharp hatchet on the Zionist zealots in the State Department who parrot the propaganda and deliberate lies from the Israelis. He needs to call out the Zionist members of Congress with dual Israeli citizenship for the constant lies they crank out. He needs to publicly disavow the Bush program that allocated $400 million to destabilize the government of Iran. He needs to tell H. Clinton and Leon Panetta to shut up with all their "all options are on the table" and "crossing the red lines". He could pull all those carrier groups out of the Persion Gulf and have an honest talks with the Iranians without any sabotageing by the State Department Zionists like Dennis Ross. He could also do a signing statement that the US will not enforce the BS unilateral sanctions created by Congress. This is just a start, but any attempt by the State Department to keep the Iranians from executing the ex-Marine they have charged with spying will fail. When you piss off the Iranians over and over, including murdering their nuclear scientists and pleading ignorance, they will lose all sense of compassion.

 

WINSKI

1:01 AM ET

January 12, 2012

Headlines from Rupe?

Since the headlines in most of the Post come DIRECTLY from the Fox News feed, why would you expect anything else?

 

SANIAISLAM14

12:12 PM ET

January 13, 2012

may simply be maintaining

may simply be maintaining equilibrium among factions in Washington with radically different ideas as to how to proceed.

Sanctions are not war, which is appreciated by the many people who can read a map well enough to know that attempting to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capability development by force is impractical. Sanctions are also not normalization, which people (including President Obama's most dedicated political opponents) who think a working Iranian nuclear weapon would be disastrous like.

Tightening sanctions indicates movement, something most people in Washington seem to prize, even or perhaps especially because movement on Iraq does not seem to be possible in any other form. It also conveys multilateralism, which the Obama administration cherishes. The idea that sanctions could increase discontent with the Tehran regime in Iran itself is attractive, because all of Washington fell in love with the Arab Spring narrative of oppressed peoples choosing on their own to rise up peacefully, or not, against oppressive governments. If that could happen in Arab countries, why not in Iran?

OK then. Here's my problem: I keep hearing reports that Iranians -- outside the regime itself -- don't understand the reason for sanctions, let alone the reason for new or tightened sanctions. That's what one would expect if the real objective of our current policy were to maintain peace in Washington among all the people who are sure we need an Iran policy but who cannot agree among themselves about what that policy ought to strive for. It's not a good thing.

"Reaching out" to the Iranian government at this point -- unless one believes that we ought to be negotiating based on giving the Iranians everything they want without asking anything in return -- is, to be sure, unattractive at the present time. Too many powerful figures in an Iran struggling with economic and other difficulties are too deeply invested in hostility to the American superpower for dramatic gestures to lead anywhere.

I really don't think, though, we ought to be proceeding as if it were self-evident to the Iranian public why the United States and its allies are doing what they are with respect to sanctions. The Obama administration does now appear to have placed itself at risk of being defined, within Iran, entirely by the least reasonable people in the Iranian government. That's not a desirable state of affairs, but in the absence of a more active approach to our public diplomacy that where we will end up if we're not there already.may simply be maintaining equilibrium among factions in Washington with radically different ideas as to how to proceed.

Sanctions are not war, which is appreciated by the many people who can read a map well enough to know that attempting to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capability development by force is impractical. Sanctions are also not normalization, which people (including President Obama's most dedicated political opponents) who think a working Iranian nuclear weapon would be disastrous like.

Tightening sanctions indicates movement, something most people in Washington seem to prize, even or perhaps especially because movement on Iraq does not seem to be possible in any other form. It also conveys multilateralism, which the Obama administration cherishes. The idea that sanctions could increase discontent with the Tehran regime in Iran itself is attractive, because all of Washington fell in love with the Arab Spring narrative of oppressed peoples choosing on their own to rise up peacefully, or not, against oppressive governments. If that could happen in Arab countries, why not in Iran?

OK then. Here's my problem: I keep hearing reports that Iranians -- outside the regime itself -- don't understand the reason for sanctions, let alone the reason for new or tightened sanctions. That's what one would expect if the real objective of our current policy were to maintain peace in Washington among all the people who are sure we need an Iran policy but who cannot agree among themselves about what that policy ought to strive for. It's not a good thing.

"Reaching out" to the Iranian government at this point -- unless one believes that we ought to be negotiating based on giving the Iranians everything they want without asking anything in return -- is, to be sure, unattractive at the present time. Too many powerful figures in an Iran struggling with economic and other difficulties are too deeply invested in hostility to the American superpower for dramatic gestures to lead anywhere.

I really don't think, though, we ought to be proceeding as if it were self-evident to the Iranian public why the United States and its allies are doing what they are with respect to sanctions. The Obama administration does now appear to have placed itself at risk of being defined, within Iran, entirely by the least reasonable people in the Iranian government. That's not a desirable state of affairs, but in the absence of a more active approach to our public diplomacy that where we will end up if we're not there already.may simply be maintaining equilibrium among factions in Washington with radically different ideas as to how to proceed.

Sanctions are not war, which is appreciated by the many people who can read a map well enough to know that attempting to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capability development by force is impractical. Sanctions are also not normalization, which people (including President Obama's most dedicated political opponents) who think a working Iranian nuclear weapon would be disastrous like.

Tightening sanctions indicates movement, something most people in Washington seem to prize, even or perhaps especially because movement on Iraq does not seem to be possible in any other form. It also conveys multilateralism, which the Obama administration cherishes. The idea that sanctions could increase discontent with the Tehran regime in Iran itself is attractive, because all of Washington fell in love with the Arab Spring narrative of oppressed peoples choosing on their own to rise up peacefully, or not, against oppressive governments. If that could happen in Arab countries, why not in Iran?

OK then. Here's my problem: I keep hearing reports that Iranians -- outside the regime itself -- don't understand the reason for sanctions, let alone the reason for new or tightened sanctions. That's what one would expect if the real objective of our current policy were to maintain peace in Washington among all the people who are sure we need an Iran policy but who cannot agree among themselves about what that policy ought to strive for. It's not a good thing.

"Reaching out" to the Iranian government at this point -- unless one believes that we ought to be negotiating based on giving the Iranians everything they want without asking anything in return -- is, to be sure, unattractive at the present time. Too many powerful figures in an Iran struggling with economic and other difficulties are too deeply invested in hostility to the American superpower for dramatic gestures to lead anywhere.

I really don't think, though, we ought to be proceeding as if it were self-evident to the Iranian public why the United States and its allies are doing what they are with respect to sanctions. The Obama administration does now appear to have placed itself at risk of being defined, within Iran, entirely by the least reasonable people in the Iranian government. That's not a desirable state of affairs, but in the absence of a more active approach to our public diplomacy that where we will end up if we're not there already.may simply be maintaining equilibrium among factions in Washington with radically different ideas as to how to proceed.

Sanctions are not war, which is appreciated by the many people who can read a map well enough to know that attempting to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capability development by force is impractical. Sanctions are also not normalization, which people (including President Obama's most dedicated political opponents) who think a working Iranian nuclear weapon would be disastrous like.

Tightening sanctions indicates movement, something most people in Washington seem to prize, even or perhaps especially because movement on Iraq does not seem to be possible in any other form. It also conveys multilateralism, which the Obama administration cherishes. The idea that sanctions could increase discontent with the Tehran regime in Iran itself is attractive, because all of Washington fell in love with the Arab Spring narrative of oppressed peoples choosing on their own to rise up peacefully, or not, against oppressive governments. If that could happen in Arab countries, why not in Iran?

OK then. Here's my problem: I keep hearing reports that Iranians -- outside the regime itself -- don't understand the reason for sanctions, let alone the reason for new or tightened sanctions. That's what one would expect if the real objective of our current policy were to maintain peace in Washington among all the people who are sure we need an Iran policy but who cannot agree among themselves about what that policy ought to strive for. It's not a good thing.

"Reaching out" to the Iranian government at this point -- unless one believes that we ought to be negotiating based on giving the Iranians everything they want without asking anything in return -- is, to be sure, unattractive at the present time. Too many powerful figures in an Iran struggling with economic and other difficulties are too deeply invested in hostility to the American superpower for dramatic gestures to lead anywhere.

I really don't think, though, we ought to be proceeding as if it were self-evident to the Iranian public why the United States and its allies are doing what they are with respect to sanctions. The Obama administration does now appear to have placed itself at risk of being defined, within Iran, entirely by the least reasonable people in the Iranian government. That's not a desirable state of affairs, but in the absence of a more active approach to our public diplomacy that where we will end up if we're not there already.

Thanks

We are also dealing this kind in Travel agency as well ;)

 

REYNARDNILSON

3:03 PM ET

February 8, 2012

Sanctions are not war, which

Sanctions are not war, which is appreciated by the many people who can read a map well enough to know that attempting to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capability development by force is impractical. Sanctions are also weddings101 not normalization, which people (including President Obama's most dedicated political opponents) who think a working Iranian nuclear weapon would be disastrous like.

 

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