Tuesday, December 6, 2011 - 3:48 PM

Last Wednesday marked the 10th anniversary of Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill coining the term BRICs, to describe the four countries that he believed would drive economic growth in the coming years -- a designation that was turned into a formal economic grouping in 2009. But the anniversary aside, it's been a week of surprisingly bad press for the four countries, though commentators don't seem quite united on just which emerging economy is the most overhyped.
Following India's decision to delay long-awaited reforms to its retail sector to allow greater foreign investment, O'Neill pronounced India the greatest disappointment of the four:
"All four countries have become bigger (economies) than I said they were going to be, even Russia. However there are important structural issues about all four and as we go into the 10-year anniversary, in some ways India is the most disappointing," said O'Neill who oversees almost a trillion dollars in assets at Goldman.[...]
"India has the risk of ... if they're not careful, a balance of payments crisis. They shouldn't raise people's hopes of FDI and then in a week say, 'we're only joking'," O'Neill said.
"India's inability to raise its share of global FDI is very disappointing," he said.
United Nations data shows that India received less than $20 billion in FDI in the first six months of 2011, compared to more than $60 billion in China while Brazil and Russia took in $23 billion and $33 billion respectively.
Meanwhile, the FT's John Paul Rathbone argues that Brazil's recent economic growth is nothing more than a "optical illusion":
Brazil’s economy has indeed been growing at a ferocious pace – when measured in nominal, dollar terms. Since the global financial crisis first erupted in 2008, Brazilian nominal GDP has increased by an astonishing 52 per cent. In real inflation-adjusted terms, however, the performance is more modest: Brazil has grown just 10 per cent. Go back further, say to 1990, and the difference is more dramatic. In nominal dollar terms, Brazil’s economy is now five times bigger. But in real terms, it has “just” doubled since then.
Why does this difference matter? The short answer is because Brazil’s apparently fantastic growth rate hinges on its exchange rate. This has been pumped up by two factors. First, because of the startling climb in commodity prices, which has produced some real improvements in the economy. And second, because of capital inflows, which have produced some nominal improvements. Again, the difference matters. As Andrew Hunt economics points out, Brazilian nominal GDP has doubled since 2000 but employment has only grown by 10 per cent. Queer, no?
As for Russia and China, Goerge Mason political scientist Jack Goldstone argues in a new piece for Foreign Policy that they're sitting on demographic time bombs:
The current obsession with how soon China's economy will overtake that of the United States is absurd. IMF estimates for 2010 place China's GDP at about 40 percent of U.S. GDP. If China's growth rate slows to 5 percent per year from 2010 to 2030, as seems highly likely given the demographic and other obstacles it faces, and the U.S. economy grows at 2.5 percent per year, then in real terms, China's economy will only grow from slightly more than one-third as large as the U.S. economy today to two-thirds as large in 2030. With its workforce plunging (and aging), there is no reason to expect China's relative gains to continue after that date. Even if those growth rates continue, though, China's economy would not catch up with the U.S. economy until after 2050.
The situation in rapidly aging, still hydrocarbon-dependent Russia, Goldstone argues, is even more grim, an argument that seems borne out by the latest news from Moscow. Goldstone is still bullish on Brazil and India, based on demographic and political trends, but argues they should more appropriately be put in the company of Turkey, Mexico, and Indonesia: the TIMBIs.
It's hard to be too downbeat on recent trends in BRIC-world, compared with the latest from Europe and the United States. But whether or not it's reflected in economic reality, the adulatory coverage may be coming to an end.
If China's economy grows by 8.5% and RMB appreciates by 3.5% a year for the next 9 years and America's economy grows by 2.5% for the same time period , China's economy will overtake that of America by either 2019 or 2020. These are very reasonable assumptions. The ECOMOMIST magazine predicted 2019 as the year when China overtakes America in GDP.
You won't see current "growth" rates persists past 2013 or 2014, much less to the end of the decade. Michael Pettis and Patrick Chovanec have both written persuasively about this.
The RMB may be undervalued. It could also be grossly overvalued and due for a major correction once money is flooded to refloat the banking system, which could shave up to 50% off of China's current GDP estimate.
"These are very reasonable assumptions."
You know what they say about assumptions...
Contrary to the popular myth, China does not depend on exports for most of it's economic growth. "Net' exports(the value of gross exports minus the value of imported parts and raw materials that went into Chinese exports) make up only about 10% of Chinese economy. The other 90% comes from fixed asset investment and consumption. Since the urbanizatin rate in China is less than 50%, China can spend a lot more building infrastructure and consumption has been increasing very rapidly. As a matter of fact consumption increased by13% last year eclipsing the GDP growth of 10.4% for the first time in many years. I think Chinese banks are in good shape. Their NPL ratio is less than 2%. When S&P downgraded many of American and European banks the other day, it did not downgrade Chinese banks because S&P thought they were on solid footing. According to many experts, RMB is about 10-40% undervalued. I think it's the Dollar and Euro that will go down in value against RMB, because the FED and ECB have no choice but print more money to take care of the sovereign debt probem in Europe and reflate the near recession American economy. The people you mentiond are perennial China bears. You should pay more attention to such neutral observer as the well- respected ECONOMIST magazine. The way things are going right now, America will be lucky if it's economy grows 2% a year for the next several years.
I hope to see more in the future.
s
How disappointing that the BRICs won't go into hock...
Bastards, heh? What do they think they are doing?
Don't they know they are expected to follow the script that has been written for them in Wall Street?
Ungrateful bastards.
These are some of the comments over india.
NEW DELHI: Here are some winners even before the results of the 14th Lok Sabha polls are out! Carefully maintaining equidistance from all parties and without eyeing political mileage, several individuals and voluntary organizations have worked towards strengthening the Indian democracy. From monitoring of polls to seeking more transparency from candidates, these unsung heroes are working to contribute their bit to the electoral process spanning over two months and involving 675 million voters.
"Bill is before the House and government is very sincere in passing the Bill, the Lokpal bill and bringing in to force. There is no doubt about it," she added.
Patil also praised other measures such as the Right to Information act to bring reform in the world's largest democracy.
"The double tax avoidance agreement also, India is very keen about it. India has already rectified that. I took up this issue with these Austria and Switzerland also because the Indian government is very sincere and they want to effectively implement this also and we have taken all the measures, which are necessary to curb corruption. To combat corruption, government of India is taking and that is the reason why India is actively considering to become a member of the Anti- Corruption Academy," said Patil.
Commenting on the recent wave of hunger strikes by various social activists to press for their demands, she said that Indian democracy is globally admired because of its moral values and rule of law and that should be respected by all.
"We have certain values and rule of law in a democratic set up along with our human and civil rights. These are the common values of our democracy for which India is respected by other countries," added Patil.
Patil further pressed on the need to join hands to counter militancy and praised the government of Austria and Switzerland for taking keen interest in the global war against militancy.
"As far as anti-terrorism is concerned both the countries have condemned the acts of terrorism and they think there should be a global war against terrorism. There is no second thought that terrorism is condemned globally," asserted Patil.
We Indians know something is wrong with our system. Yet, we find change unsettling. People came together in the Anna Hazare-led anti-corruption movement and led it to victory. However, when we sat down to draft the Lokpal Bill, apprehensions set in, caused by the personal attacks on the drafting committee members, the projected worst-case scenarios on what could go wrong and how the Lokpal himself could become corrupt. Some intellectuals called the movement an attack on democracy.
Enjoying the citizens' insecurities and confusion, the government decided to do what it does best—hoodwink us. The latest salvo from it is that MPs and the PM should be kept out of the bill's purview, which in turn renders the bill impotent and pointless even before it is enacted.
Let's step back to the basics. Neither the movement, nor the bill is an attack on democracy. In fact, the movement was a catalyst and the bill gives Indian democracy its proper form. Right now, we are not truly a democracy, irrespective of what your civics teacher taught you in school. We are closer to an elected monarchy, or kingocracy. We elect our leaders, and give them all the powers in the world. If they do any wrong, the only people who can investigate them are among the ones who report to them. In other words, they are not political leaders; they are little kings (complete with shoe-polishing sycophants and traffic-blocking privileges).
There is a reason why we have such a system. For thousands of years, India had only kings. Then the British came, ruled us for 250 years, and left behind democracy-like parliaments, courts and governance systems. However, ultimately, India was a colony run by British leaders with absolute power. In this system, having a people's representative ombudsman, or Lokpal, was out of question.
The British left, and our own elected leaders replaced them. The election was a good thing. However, the chairs they sat on had absolute power. Everyone reported to them, and they didn't need to answer to anyone. Thus began a legacy of corrupt leaders, who in turn created one of the most corrupt nations on earth. The corruption seeped down to lower levels of power. From traffic cops to oppressive husbands — abusing power in India became normal.
The absolute power given to our politicians often attracted the least ethical and most dishonest people to the profession. The Indian politician became a shady villain in our movies and popular culture. We accepted there was no way out. Rulers had to be kings, and kings could do whatever they wanted.
Corruption rose to astronomical levels, while the country remained poor. Indians lacked basic infrastructure, education and food, and faced massive inflation even as politicians swindled thousands of crores. Yet, nobody could lodge an FIR against them, or independently investigate them. People finally became sick of it and took to the streets. Before it turned ugly, the government buckled and agreed to a Lokpal Bill.
We Indians know something is wrong with our system. Yet, we find change unsettling. People came together in the Anna Hazare-led anti-corruption movement and led it to victory. However, when we sat down to draft the Lokpal Bill, apprehensions set in, caused by the personal attacks on the drafting committee members, the projected worst-case scenarios on what could go wrong and how the Lokpal himself could become corrupt. Some intellectuals called the movement an attack on democracy.
Enjoying the citizens' insecurities and confusion, the government decided to do what it does best—hoodwink us. The latest salvo from it is that MPs and the PM should be kept out of the bill's purview, which in turn renders the bill impotent and pointless even before it is enacted.
Let's step back to the basics. Neither the movement, nor the bill is an attack on democracy. In fact, the movement was a catalyst and the bill gives Indian democracy its proper form. Right now, we are not truly a democracy, irrespective of what your civics teacher taught you in school. We are closer to an elected monarchy, or kingocracy. We elect our leaders, and give them all the powers in the world. If they do any wrong, the only people who can investigate them are among the ones who report to them. In other words, they are not political leaders; they are little kings (complete with shoe-polishing sycophants and traffic-blocking privileges).
There is a reason why we have such a system. For thousands of years, India had only kings. Then the British came, ruled us for 250 years, and left behind democracy-like parliaments, courts and governance systems. However, ultimately, India was a colony run by British leaders with absolute power. In this system, having a people's representative ombudsman, or Lokpal, was out of question.
The British left, and our own elected leaders replaced them. The election was a good thing. However, the chairs they sat on had absolute power. Everyone reported to them, and they didn't need to answer to anyone. Thus began a legacy of corrupt leaders, who in turn created one of the most corrupt nations on earth. The corruption seeped down to lower levels of power. From traffic cops to oppressive husbands — abusing power in India became normal.
The absolute power given to our politicians often attracted the least ethical and most dishonest people to the profession. The Indian politician became a shady villain in our movies and popular culture. We accepted there was no way out. Rulers had to be kings, and kings could do whatever they wanted.
Corruption rose to astronomical levels, while the country remained poor. Indians lacked basic infrastructure, education and food, and faced massive inflation even as politicians swindled thousands of crores. Yet, nobody could lodge an FIR against them, or independently investigate them. People finally became sick of it and took to the streets. Before it turned ugly, the government buckled and agreed to a Lokpal Bill.
Thanks
Admin of Duck rubber | dog beds
Is it such a bad thing we disappointed Goldman Sachs?
As a cub reporter a decade back, I used to find the idea of four large countries clubbed together in a catchy advertising slogan a bit funny. Funnier still was the leaders buying into the hype too. It still doesn't make sense.
As for FDI in retail, about which Mr. O'Neill complains, I wonder what is better? To roll back a controversial measure because of stiff opposition or to push an important measure through without consulting the parliament - as the government tried to do? The way FDI in retail was being pushed through in India through the back door was wrong. I am happy that the government had to back off.
Maybe some people might prefer an India with less democracy - as Mr. Mahathir Muhammad of Malaysia recommended a few days back. But as an Indian, I'd go with a blundering democracy any day. The extra per cent of GDP growth and investor returns is not worth my rights, and I am happy I can say this without being picked up or harmonized. The full Reuters story indicates Mr. O'Neill is the most bullish on Russia. I guess the wheel has come a full circle if the Malaysian leader finds common cause with a Goldman economist.
Re: Suck it O'Neill. India is doing what is good for it.
Let me understand this, so this tactical decision by India to delay FDI in retail means Indian economy is a disappointment? Wow, amazing logic. Alas, those days are long over when anyone would believe such faulty opinion, from a Wall Street analyst, based on weak reasoning.
India has always been cautious with its economy, after all more than a billion people depend on it. That discretion has served it well in the past and based on the past trend it will continue to do well in future. Most economic metric project 7% to 10% for years, that to me is good progress.
Now, why India has delayed FDI in retail, reason is simple. Look at US economy, all the mom and pop shops have been devastated by Walmart but because of mobility of labor and maturity of US economy it may be able to deal with that, India can't. Many poor folks depend on their small retail shops for their livelihood, big retailers will annihilate them completely. India needs think about the consequences and not worry about such inconsequential opinion of likes of O'N eill.
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