Friday, November 11, 2011 - 3:35 PM

The New York Times has a very strange op-ed today from Paul V. Kane, a former international security fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. The piece makes the case that the U.S. should trade Taiwan to China for a deal on debt. Here's the argument:
There are dozens of initiatives President Obama could undertake to strengthen our economic security. Here is one: He should enter into closed-door negotiations with Chinese leaders to write off the $1.14 trillion of American debt currently held by China in exchange for a deal to end American military assistance and arms sales to Taiwan and terminate the current United States-Taiwan defense arrangement by 2015.
This would be a most precious prize to the cautious men in Beijing, one they would give dearly to achieve. After all, our relationship with Taiwan, as revised in 1979, is a vestige of the cold war.
Kane argues that with this one bold stroke, Obama can "correct the country’s course, help assure his re-election, and preserve our children’s future." It could also "pressure Beijing to end its political and economic support for pariah states like Iran, North Korea and Syria and to exert a moderating influence over an unstable Pakistan."
Decline-o-meter: Giving this a two for the fact that we've gotten to the point where a suggestion like this is being featured on a prominent op-ed page. I'm all for counter-intuitive thinking, and intelligent people can disagree on the wisdom of the current U.S. Taiwan policy, but like most magic bullet solutions to major international crises, this makes absolutely no sense.
1. Why would China take this deal? According to the figures Kane himself cites, Beijing will spend around $500 billion over the next decade on Taiwan-related defense spending. So a $1.14 trillion debt write-off isn't really a bargain. Obviously Taiwan is a major priority for Beijing. But its trade relationship and relative economic position with the U.S. is a much, much bigger one.
2. U.S. debt is approaching $15 trillion. Lowering that to $14 trillion isn't going to "save our economy". And I can't imagine a write-off on the scale doing wonders for the U.S. credit rating.
3. How exactly will this help Obama's reelection chances? I've always thought the argument that Obama is "selling out" U.S. allies was overblown, but it would be a bit hard to refute if he literally sold a U.S. ally.
4. Even if this deal magically resolved the Taiwan situation, what does that have to do with Iran, North Korea, Syria, or Pakistan -- countries where China has completely different interests at stake? If anything, it takes a bargaining chip off the table.
Flawed as it is, the idea got me thinking. Canada holds about $90 billion in U.S. debt. Maybe they'd take a Dakota or two for it.
Update: Via James Fallows, I see that the good folks at Taiwan's Next Media Animation have weighed in:
LOL. Liberals are crazy, but don't take anything you read in the NYT these days seriously...
Funny, I'm fairly sure liberalism* doesn't encourage literally selling out allies. I could be wrong of course. Let me check my Locke, Voltaire, Madison and Rawls. Nope, don't see a word of it. Maybe Kissinger is in full agreement with Rush Limbaugh over the Lord's Resistance Army, why don't we ask him?
*Liberalism as is generally defined in the U.S, not international liberalism which can be very different depending on nation.
Codies has released the launch trailer for Bodycount ahead .
Why exactly would China take this suggestion seriously? They would never have any reason to think we were serious, and indeed they would probably be correct in thinking that it would never happen.
This analysis is flawed, although the United States should definitely stay out of the politics of other countries.
This is not a bargaining deal that can be done, since the United States does not own Taiwan, how can it "give away" something that it doesn't own?
This only suggest that US Imperialist mindset if it "owns" other entities it has "interests" in.
"since the United States does not own Taiwan"
No, and the op-ed does not suggest that the USA does.
What it (correctly) points out is that the USA has agreed to act as a guarantor of Taiwan's security, which is
a) a very different thing altogether, and
b) a thing to which you can attach a monetary value.
It is worth *everything* to the Taiwanese: they could not possibly place a monetary value on that guarantee.
It is worth considerably less to the Chinese, but if it *were* up for sale then a valuation in the region of $1.5billion would probably be about right.
But what's it worth to the USA?
Well, it certainly costs a lot in cold, hard cash, and it also carries the risk of entangling the USA in a war in Asia; both of which would disappear if the USA put that security guarantee up for a silent auction.
But you are, indeed, wrong: the USA wouldn't be "selling" Taiwan, just its security guarantee to the Taiwanese.
And a Taiwan that had no security guarantees from the USA has no choice but to agree to rejoin the mainland, though I fail to understand why that end-result is necessarily a BAD thing.
It's actually not as crazy an idea as it seems.
Thhe security guarantee to Taiwan is an anachronism and will one day be withdrawn the point is to do it in a way that makes maximum benefit to the US and in a way that does not frighten the other allies that they will be sold out the following month.
Taiwan used to have US forces including US aircraft and nuclear weapons based on its soil they were all withdrawn in the 1970's
The regular dip in relations between US and PRC after every arms sale is bad long term politics but is offset to some extent by the lobbyists and arms manufacturers making money.
The other issue is the money the US invests in the high end capabilities of the USN. In peer to peer warfare the only potential foe for the USN is the PLAN and the most likely scenario is Taiwan, if the US does not have to plan for that scenario it saves a shed load of cost in its own military, but then comes those pesky lobbyists and arms manufacturers again.
In the end the US is not going to willing to risk trading LA for Taipei if we are buying Chinese goods from Walmart every day, in the way that trading NY for Berlin was thought possiblen40 years ago.
It is so easy for simple minded to say this is not a bad thing. This is because you are fortunate enough to have the privilege of growing up in United States where democracy and freedom are taken for granted.
You do not understand the Taiwanese people nor the situation. You are a hypocrite.
Stop stating such b.s. if you don't know what you are talking about.
was the most cowardly suggestion I can remember encountering in any mainstream American media. Now that the going has gotten tough on both sides of the North Atlantic, which men are made of paper and which are not.
Sell Taiwan to China??? I will assume Paul Kane had a minor stroke writing that or a rather unique sense of humor.
. . . for this obviously good idea. Hong Kong still prospers under mainland rule.
The second hurrah I'm saving for when we finally ditch the Israeli albatross.
That would make Chamberlain proud!
Perhaps American could then sell off Canada. The Chinese would surely pay top dollar for that nice piece of real estate.
Even if the benefits of ditching Taiwan were as good as the article's author states, we still shouldn't do it. Taiwan's people have the right to self-determination, and there's no reason why that should change simply because mainland China wants to resume fighting its civil war from half a century ago.
"Taiwan's people have the right to self-determination,"
Indeed true, but why does the USA have to pay for the privilege of being the guarantor of those rights?
Because it is undeniably true that the USA *currently* acts as the guarantor of Taiwan's security, just as it is equally true that there is no obligation - none whatsoever - for the USA to continue to provide that guarantee Come What May and into the indefinite future.
It can tire of that (rather thankless) task, and if it does then it makes good sense for the USA to dispose of that guarantee by putting it up for a silent auction: if Taiwan can pony up $1trillion then that's f.a.n.t.a.s.t.i.c. for them, but if they can't (and I suspect very much they can't) then why not ask the Chinese if they are interested....
Makes sense to me but, then again, I'm not letting the jingoism get in the way of a good deal.
The high flying emotions of people talking about ideals have nothing to do with real politics. The biggest issue I see is that weapons manufacturers stand to lose to much money by not selling all those weapons to Taiwan and they have a lot of influence in Washinton. How much GDP would America lose over time not selling those weapons to Taiwan? Even if the government is subsudizing it, they would have to overcome the lobbies that are still profiting from it. Which gets to the root of the issue, lobbies handtie our political system. They can lead to making decions counterproductive to sound national policy. Reform of how money flows in Washington is still the key to fixing a vast number of the problems we face. When we fix that we can make decions that are best for the nation, which isn't what we do now. That's the problem.
"How much GDP would America lose over time"
How much GDP is lost servicing a $1.4trillion debt?
Whatever America’s incentive for tilting toward Taiwan in the balancing act
discussed here, it has been consistently, maliciously exploited by Taiwanese politicians from presidents Lee Teng-Hui to Chen Shui-Bian to Ma Ying-Jou for the past 20 years, and this exploitation seems destined to continue with future leaders if the current impasse persists. In order to rally support for their personal political gain, the most effective strategy has been to provoke China first, collect the benefits from the political fallout coming from either China or the Taiwanese populist reaction to it next, and then tell the Taiwanese people “Don’t you worry, if the Chinese attack, Americans will come and fight for us”. One of these days this game will be played once too many, and it will be up to the Americans to come and fight for the Taiwanese, all in order to win the next election for president so and so, all because our commitment has been taken advantage of by Taiwanese politicians.
It is high time for the US to closely examine ways to extricate itself from this blackmail, not by China, but by ill-intentioned and self-serving Taiwanese politicians.
With that kind of simplistic thinking...
Can the US sell Hawaii to Japan in exchange for the US debt it hold?
Can the US sell Israel for oil?
I doubt China would buy it for $1.14 trillion. If I were an investment banker for China, I would suggest South Korea.
Wait, how do we sell things we don't own? Perhaps Bernie Madoff is secretly running State Department.
Or Justice Department is secretly drafting a legal opinion that the US actually own its allies and any ally is subject to securitization which would be traded on New York Stck Exchange.
"Wait, how do we sell things we don't own?"
No, that isn't the suggestion.
The USA currently provides security guarantees to the Taiwanese, and while those guarantees are in place then the Taiwanese government can afford to thumb its nose at the Chinese.
That is what can be sold to the Chinese i.e. if you agree to write off that debt then we'll agree to withdraw those security guarantees.
At which point, of course, the fate of Taiwan is pretty much destined to be the same as Hong Kong.
I would like to make another Modest Proposal
The US should use the money from 'selling Taiwan' for another purpose.
No, not pay off the national debt, or even try to balance the books.
That would make too much sense.
And we should not even try to reign in those who would then squander the money on various govt programs that don't help the economy.
Instead, lets use the money to BUY MEXICO!
If we don't have quite enough left over, then maybe just Baja.
The US would be more symmetrical with Baja on the left side to balance out Florida sticking down on the right side.
But also, think of all the money we'd save on border fencing.
And Mexicans would then not flock to the United States as they'd already be IN THE UNITED STATES!
How's that for messing with the immigrants minds? They would no longer be immigrants.
There would be endless opportunities for huge corporations to sell vastly overpriced sewage systems to small towns in Mexico, like they did in Alabama.
Lawyers could multiply like mice suing people in Mexico over all the various things that the people could now sue for under US laws.
Endless speculators would have places to sink their cash in Mexican land values, forming wonderful new bubbles.
I was going to suggest we buy Canada too, as a place we could put some cooling pipelines to and from, when global warming hits in earnes,
but I was afraid we'd just trash the place. And it looks like, with their currency strength they will be poised to buy the US instead.
I think it was the Sikh leader Ranjit Singh who said of the British that it was always better to be their enemy than their friend as they would sell their friends to buy their enemies. Perhaps in the future this will be true of the USA - what price could the US get for Israel?
Agreed w/Mr. Keating on his points. Some of ya'll need to develop a better understanding of Chinese culture (different from Chinese History) before supporting these types of proposals.
1. China is not going to negotiate $1.4T for something they already view as part of their country.
2. $1.4T over the US's head (particularly when the US is its current economic state) is represents more than just debt. If selling out Taiwan is taking a bargaining chip off the table for the US, negotiating on the $1.4T does the same for China.
3. Considering the damage China could do to US / Taiwan relations (not to mention all other alliances) only by agreeing to negotiate for Taiwan and rejecting a final proposal, why would the US ever make this offer?
4. Taiwan is already very economically integrated with China - in terms of investments, business, trade interests, etc. Think about how the wealthy upper class (having the most to gain and lose) would react if you tried to cut their economic ties with China. Would money rush into China or out of China? Either way is not optimal. China knows this and is basically waiting for political tensions to die out through one or two more generations.
5. By the same logic, how is the US currently 'protecting' Taiwan? What does the US even have to gain in 'protecting' Taiwan? Very little economically and politically, even less in relative terms against China. China does not need to launch missiles or send troops for a reaction.
"The USA currently provides security guarantees to the Taiwanese, and while those guarantees are in place then the Taiwanese government can afford to thumb its nose at the Chinese."
There is no guarantee. First, there is no commitment on personnel deployment. Second, the weapons sold will not be effective for too long and Taiwan will eventually have no courage to actually use them. Third, Taiwan does not want war, or Taiwan cannot articulate to the world that it really wants war, or the world does not want war no matter what Taiwan wants.
Taiwan does not thumb its nose at the Chinese mainland. It is already desperately gesturing feckless defiance.
Taiwan as an island without energy has an abjectly exposed artery to be picked on. The mainland side will just squeeze and squeeze on this artery for the next 20-40 or more years.
Actually, not much is newsworthy about Taiwan. The mainland just keeps gaining advantage and then squeeze Taiwan more and more; this is not really news.
One day, may be in 2035, just resisting the mainland's pressure on its exposed energy artery will cause taiwan to wither. I think one can safely assume that Taiwan will fold and accept a Hong Kong deal, may be some level of arms will be agreed upon.
The mainland will NEVER allow Taiwan any diplomatic space, as it will use it to champion independence. The rest of the world cannot and will not do much for Taiwan when the time comes; the basic thrust is still the same: Taiwan does not want war.
Firm power, softpower executed with just enough hard power, will allow mainland China to recovery Taiwan. It may take 30-40 years, but it will happen unless the mainland Chinese economy imploded.
Deal with the USA will not be worth anything to China unless it is openly announced. Clandestine deal defeats the purpose and is not meaningful, as weapons sold to Taiwan will not be used anyway
The so-called self-determination is an empty word.
It is a happenstance that has no more than trivial meaning.
Either a group of people is practicing self-determination as a country or it is not practicing it because there is a central government.
There is never such a right.
The USA has already recognize that Taiwan is a part of China (knowledge def 3: "To recognize the claim or authority of). There is nothing more to do but to sell useless weapons to Taiwan at inflated prices.
Taiwan will need to start a war by attacking the mainland first in 2030, 2040 to make a statement when the mainland squeezes on its exposed energy artery, This is just a joke. It will never do so. It is already afraid even now, just wait another 20-30 years.
The USA will do nothing, as Chinese will be too close in military prowess and the taiwan issue will have to be resolved eventualy. The USA will take bloodless way and not let its fervor rob Taiwan of the chance of a niche in China.
The biggest issue I see is that weapons manufacturers stand to lose to much money by not selling all those weapons to Taiwan Stone James and they have a lot of influence in Washinton. How much GDP would America lose over time not selling those weapons to Taiwan?
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