To be clear -- no one has yet claimed responsibility
for today's blasts in central Oslo. But Norway has not been immune from terror
threats in the past. Al Qaeda's new chief, Ayman al Zawahri, has called for
attacks on the country. After an audio message from Zawahri in 2003 singled it
out, a spokesman for the foreign ministry said
the government was "surprised" to be a target. Zawahri threatened Norway again
in 2007, for participating "in the war against the Muslims."
Last year, Norway arrested
two immigrants from China and Uzbekistan with alleged ties to al Qaeda. (A
third man believed to be connected to the group was arrested in Germany).
Norwegian authorities believed they were plotting
an attack in Norway, though that was never confirmed. At the time, the
minister of justice said the
arrests indicated that the country needed to pay closer attention to possible
links between immigrants and terror groups overseas.
But, why Norway?
The country supported the invasion of Afghanistan (though its troop presence
is very low -- only about
400 soldiers); and there is still lingering anger over the Danish Mohammed
cartoon controversy from 2006. A Norwegian newspaper reprinted
some of them, forcing the government to apologize. Norway's embassy in
Syria was attacked
by protesters. Some analysts say Scandinavian countries are often lumped
together by extremist groups -- meaning Denmark and Norway are seen as intertwined. In fact, one of the
immigrants arrested last year in Norway, reportedly told
police his target was originally the Danish newspaper that first published
the cartoons.
Another potential explanation has to
do with the complicated
case of Mullah Krekar, an Iraqi Kurd who worked with Islamist groups there
before moving to Norway in 1991 and claiming refugee status. He's praised bin
Laden and has called
for attacks against U.S. interests in Iraq. In 2005, he was ordered
deported after being declared a national security threat, but his deportation
was suspended. Earlier this month, prosecutors in Norway charged Krekar
with threatening government officials. Krekar has denied having any links to al
Qaeda and it seems unlikely the group would seek vengeance for his arrest.
In the end, Norway may simply have
been attacked because -- despite being a low priority for terror groups -- it
proved to be an easier target than higher profile locations. And in the wake
of bin Laden's killing, al Qaeda has been looking to launch an attack against
the West.
"It may be pointless to search for a single grievance," said Thomas
Hegghammer, an expert on terror groups with the Norwegian Defense Research
Establishment, last year after the arrests were made. "Most likely, a
combination of factors placed Norway on the jihadists' radar. In al-Qaeda's
binary worldview, Norway is part of the ‘Jewish-Crusader alliance.' Not a
platinum member, perhaps, but a member nonetheless.... Frustrated by the
difficulty of striking key adversaries like Britain and the United States,
al-Qaeda seems to be moving down the food chain."
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