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Jon Huntsman— Can a moderate with strong foreign policy bona fides survive the 2012 Republican campaign?

 

 

Jon Huntsman, the former Republican governor of Utah who crossed party lines to serve as President Barack Obama's ambassador to China, will stand in front of the Statue of Liberty tomorrow and announce he is running for president. Huntsman tends to get both foreign policy types and the cable news political punditocracy fired up -- He's moderate! He's friendly! He speaks Chinese! He worked for Obama! But is he an attractive candidate to anyone else-and most importantly, actual Republican voters?

The poll numbers would seem to suggest Huntsman has a long way to go. He finished dead last in the most recent Rasmussen poll of potential Republican candidates, with only 2 percent of likely voters saying they were inclined to cast their ballot for him. To put that into perspective, Mitt Romney got 33 percent of the vote. Herman Cain -- the pizza guy!-- got 10 percent. Even the option of "some other candidate" scored higher than Huntsman (8 percent).

Of course, this could all change once he's actively campaigning and participating in debates. But the rush to anoint him as a major candidate seems a bit premature. It doesn't help that the White House seems to be trying to kill him with kindness. Over the weekend Obama advisor David Axelrod told CNN "I think he's a very bright, fluent person." He said Huntsman's criticisms of the president were surprising because "he was very effusive about what the president was doing" when they talked in the past.

While Huntsman's ability to run the conservative gauntlet and seize the Republican nomination is still up for debate, China hands who have dealt with him and studied his tenure as U.S. envoy to Beijing give him high marks -- both diplomatically and politically.

"In terms of knowledge and diplomatic skills, I'd regard him as one of the best ambassadors we had," said Kenneth Lieberthal, a China expert at the Brookings Institution who met with Huntsman on several occasions in Beijing. "I thought he was very good. He related effectively to Chinese audiences. Part of that is he speaks Chinese well, but he also had a cultural sensitivity. I saw him when I made trips there. He was always on top of key issues."

Orville Schell, the director of the Center on U.S.-China relations at the Asia Society, said he was also well-liked by the embassy staff.

"He is a very smart guy, quick on his feet, and he has a certain candor," he said. "We'll see if that remains when he starts campaigning."

Schell confirmed that his ability to speak Chinese opened doors for him in the country.

"He would go out in front of Chinese audiences-- he was a bit of a trained bear act. The Chinese adore anyone who can speak Chinese," he said.

If there was one discordant note to Huntsman's tenure as ambassador, it occurred when he got embroiled in a controversy about democratic reform in China near the end of his tour. There was a small pro-democracy demonstration outside a McDonalds in Beijing back in February and Huntsman showed up. He denied he was there to observe the demonstration, saying he was just in the wrong placed at the wrong time, but it caused some ripples in the Chinese government, which always suspected the United States was pushing a pro-democracy agenda, Lieberthal said.   

His last public talk as ambassador in April on the topic of U.S.-China relations also caused some controversy due to his specific criticisms of China human rights cases. He referenced imprisoned artist Ai Weiwei and Nobel Prize winner Liu Xiaobo and said, "The United States will never stop supporting human rights because we believe in the fundamental struggle for human dignity and justice wherever it may occur."

Could he have been setting himself up for a White House run by burnishing his bona fides on human rights issues and pushing a get-tough message? White House aides now say despite his past denials that he was considering a campaign in 2012, they suspect he had not always been straight with them about his political aspirations, according to the New York Times.

Beyond that, some critics say he has also already begun backpedaling on issues he once promoted, like climate change policy.

"My impression is he is an honorable man," said Schell. "We'll see whether the campaign will allow him to continue being an honorable man."

He does have one major thing going for him. In a sea of political bores, he is exciting. And people who have met with him say he has political skills that might surprise many.

"One time I brought a group of [Americans] to the embassy to meet with him,' said Lieberthal, who previously served in the Clinton administration. "There were seven people there besides me. He went around the table. It took him less than 30 seconds literally to establish some direct connection with each person. It reminded me of Clinton's skill on that level. He's the kind of politician who never forgets a name, never forgets a face."

A little Clinton magic couldn't hurt when you're at 2 percent in the polls.

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Russian dissidents: Then and now

Whatif young South Africans didn't know who Nelson Mandela was? Or if young Czechshadn't learned about Vaclav Havel. In Russia, today's youth find themselves inan analogous position: most young people know virtually nothing about AndreiSakharov, arguably the most prolific human rights activist and dissident of theclosing days of the Soviet Union.

Following the death of Yelena Bonner,Sakharov's wife and fellow human rights crusader, the NewYork Times reported that 44 percent of Russians ages 18 to 24hadn't heard of Sakharov, winner of the 1975 Nobel Peace Prize, and a mere 9percent were aware that he was a human rights activist.

Sakharov'srelative anonymity is the result of a confluence of factors. State dominationof the media and a "papering over of the Soviet past" is perhaps the mostobvious reason why young Russians haven't heard of Sakharov, says Julia Ioffe,a freelance journalist and frequent FP contributorbased in Moscow.

Economicprosperity has also played a role in pushing the human rights agenda to theperiphery. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia's GDP per capita was barelyU.S. $3,000.00 (in constant 2000 U.S. dollars); It is now nearly U.S.$16,000.00. This growth has alleviated a tremendous amount of pressure on thehuman rights front. In Ioffe's words, "When everyone has an iPhone, life isgreat."

Butthere is a more fundamental reason why Sakharov has been forgotten: shiftingpriorities among Moscow's politically conscious intelligentsia. Human rightsare no longer at the heart of dissident dialogue. "People are fightingcorruption, unfairness, and lawlessness of the police," says Ioffe. "The humanrights agenda has faded into insignificance." Thus, a new breed of dissidentactivist has grown up largely ignorant of its intellectual forbearers. Here isa look at some Russian dissidents, then and now.

THEOLD GUARD:

Yelena Bonner

Alifelong champion of human rights and the wife of Andrei Sakharov, Bonner passedaway last Saturday at the age of 88. She first became involved in politicsin 1968, when she joined a dissident movement that opposed the Soviet invasionof Czechoslovakia. She and Sakharov, whom she married in 1972, lived underconstant surveillance-and eventually exile-as Russia's "firstcouple" of dissent.

Bonneraccepted the Nobel Peace Prize on Sakharov's behalf in 1975, delivering anaddress in which she calledfor the "final victory of the principles of peace and human rights." Sakharov hadbeen denied an exit visa.

Followingher husband's death in 1989 -- two years before the collapse of the SovietUnion -- Bonner continued to campaign for human rights from her home in the UnitedStates. She was a vocal critic of Vladimir Putin and in December 2010 penned afiery speech in which she declared:"Consider that I have come, again to save my homeland, although I cannotwalk."

LyudmilaAlexeyeva

A member of the Old Guard of Sovietdissidents, Alexeyeva cut her teeth campaigning in defense of Andrei Sinyavskyand Yuly Daniel, two Soviet writers who were convicted of undermining the statein a notorious show trial in 1965-1966. It was in the midst of this campaign thatRussia's human rights movement was born, Alexeyeva later reflected.

Later,while working clandestinely for the Chronicle of Current Events, Alexeyeva hideight copies of the manuscript in her bra when she was brought in forquestioning by the KGB. In 44 years of what the NewYork Times calls "provoking official Moscow," Alexeyeva has experiencednumerous detentions, including one last January at the tender age of 82.

THE NEXT GENERATION

Alexey Navalny

Calleda "one-man WikiLeaks" by the Guardian,the 34-year-old Navalny is perhaps Russia's best-known anti-corruptionactivist. In November, 2010 Navalny published a leaked Audit Chamber reportexposing Transneft, the state pipeline monopoly, for siphoning off $4 billionfrom a pipeline construction project. This was just the latest in a long stringanti-corruption efforts that are making him very unpopular among Russia's cronycapitalist elite. Navalny'slatest project, a website called RosPil, publishes government documents andallows readers to comb them for evidence of corruption.

Already, the governmenthas been forced to annul almost seven million dollars worth of contracts as aresult of RosPil findings, according to an article by Ioffe in the NewYorker. Butit looks as if anti-corruption crusading may be catching up to the lawyeringblogger. According to the Guardian,he is currently under investigation by Moscow prosecutors for "inflictingmaterial damage by means of deceit."

YevgeniaChirikova

Chirikovamight not seem like the type to take on the Kremlin, but this 33-year-old mother of two has become the posterwoman for saving the Khimki forest, apart of the "Green Belt" around Moscow that is supposed to be protected underRussian federal law.

Afterdiscovering that trees near her house had been marked for clear-cutting,Chirikova formed In Defense of Khimki, a community group devoted to saving theforest. Members of the group have faced consistent harassment -- one member was brutallybeaten and is now confined to a wheelchair -- but it has thus far succeeded inpreventing any more trees from being felled.

Shemay never have heard of Andrei Sakharov, but Chirikova epitomizes the newgeneration of Russian activists. Wealthier, more free, and motivated by concreteconcerns, young Russians like her have taken up to torch.