China and its neighbors have been engaged in tit-for-tat muscle-flexing maneuvers in recent weeks over who controls areas of the strategically important and resource-rich South China Sea, causing headaches in the region and elsewhere, and raising fears of a more serious flare-up.

What's the fight about?

It's a territorial dispute that goes back decades, but has grown more heated as China has become bolder on the world stage. China claims it has the right to just about the entire South China Sea. Its neighbors, not surprisingly, dispute that claim and say China is using its power to bully them. Vietnam has been the most vocal in recent weeks, holding live-fire drills on the water and urging international mediation led by the United States.

Vietnamese leaders have been bolstered by popular outrage domestically at China's actions. But they are not alone. The Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Brunei have all claimed a part of the territory.

"It would be as if [the United States] just declared the entire Atlantic Ocean was our territorial waters, and anyone else who tried to explore it, we could do what we want to them -- cut their cables, sink their ships," Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations told Passport. "They are not just going to let China take it over. China's claim is so enormous it would take up the entire sea. Their claims are absurd."

What's so significant about the territory?

For starters, it's one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. But more importantly, it's loaded with oil. No one knows quite how much, though, since exploration has been so difficult given the political climate surrounding it. China estimates there could be as many as 213 billion barrels of oil reserves, which would place it second in the world behind only Saudi Arabia. That might be vastly overstated; American scientists estimate it's closer to 28 billion barrels. The sea could also possess large quantities of natural gas reserves.

How tense is it in the region right now?

Kurlantzick and other experts are quick to point out that this is not the first time tensions have spiked in recent years. In 1995, after China built structures on the Spratly Islands, the Philippines was able to convince the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to issue a rare statement denouncing China's action. But this feels different, experts say, not least because China has grown so much more powerful and confident. And other countries are acting less restrained as well. On June 13, Vietnam staged live-fire naval exercises, and the Philippines announced late last week it would soon send its biggest warship to a disputed part of the sea.

Meanwhile, China has been stepping up its confrontational posture, and not just rhetorically. On May 26 and June 9, its boats cut the cables of Vietnamese oil exploration ships. In response to Vietnam's naval exercises, it sent one of its largest vessels to "patrol" the waters, and it promised to send hundreds more in the coming years, meaning the water dispute will become increasingly militarized.

What's Washington's position?

Vietnam has urged the United States to get involved and mediate a resolution. How likely is that? The United States has given no indication it wants a leading role, though Secretary of State Hillary Clinton angered Beijing last July at an ASEAN regional forum in Hanoi when she said, "The United States has a national interest in freedom of navigation, open access to Asia's maritime commons, and respect for international law in the South China Sea," and she urged a binding code of conduct for the states involved in the dispute. But other American officials have played down her comments, according to Kurlantzick.

Last week, Sen. Jim Webb, a key congressional voice on Asia issues, said he would introduce a resolution pushing for China to enter multilateral talks over the disputed territory.

China's response came in the form of an editorial in its main military paper: "China resolutely opposes any country unrelated to the South China Sea issue meddling in disputes, and it opposes the internationalization of" the issue, it read.

How likely is this to escalate out of control?

Beijing has promised it won't use force against its neighbors over the dispute, and it would be an incredibly risky move for it to do so. Given that China relies so heavily on imported fuel from the Middle East -- most of which makes its way through the South China Sea -- a conflagration that shuts down that transit area would have devastating repercussions for the emerging world power. But, analysts say, all sides are acting aggressively. And the dispute is happening at sea, with ships that are increasingly less restrained. A small spark could set off a chain of events that leads to a real showdown, or worse.

EXPLORE:EAST ASIA, CHINA
 

MARTIAN150

11:27 AM ET

June 20, 2011

Chinese South China Sea sovereignty

Chinese South China Sea sovereignty is based on:

1. China’s historical first discovery and claim in 618 A.D.

2. Unchallenged Chinese dominion for over a thousand years.

The South China Sea islands and territory were claimed by the Tang, Song, and countless other Chinese dynasties. Vietnamese and Filipinos lacked ocean-faring boats and were not even aware of the existence of the Paracel and Spratly Islands from the 7th century to the 17th century.

3. Historical written Chinese imperial records.

Tang, Song, and countless Chinese dynasties describe the Paracel and Spratly Islands as part of China.

4. Physical proof of Chinese inhabitants (Chinese burials and artifacts)

5. Vietnamese ceded any potential legal claim to the Paracel and Spratly Islands on September 14, 1958 in a signed diplomatic document by Vietnam Premier Pham Van.

6. The entire Vietnamese government admitted to Chinese sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and territory.

On June 15, 1956, Vice Foreign Minister of the DRV? (North Vietnam) Ung Van Khiem admitted Chinese sovereignty? over the Spratly and Paracel Islands.

Another DRV official, Le Loc (Temporary Head of the Asian Mission), concurred in Chinese sovereignty over South China Sea islands.

 

DEFENDER

11:04 PM ET

July 2, 2011

Martian150 wishful thinking

Martian150, stop spraying nonsense. You need to show supporting documents for your points, 1-6. Anybody can blabber wishful thinking. Also, do not twist facts.

" 5. Vietnamese ceded any potential legal claim to the Paracel and Spratly Islands on September 14, 1958 in a signed diplomatic document by Vietnam Premier Pham Van."

On this particular point, then-North Vietnam's Premier Pham Van Dong sent a vague document acknowledging Zhou Enlai's claims, the 12-mile teritorrial sovereignty; but Pham was cautious enough not to define any concrete teritories to which this rule applies. The document did not mention the Paracel and Spratly islands. Pham's document was sent while his army was still battling South Vietnam. At that time, North Vietnam did not own the Paracel and Spratly islands since these islands were south of the 17th parallel, and on South Vietnam's side. So, if in the event Pham did show support for Zhou's claims for the islands, Pham's support has no legal value then and now.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Sea_Islands

China's claims of just about the whole South China sea are unstable, disputed and not recognized by any country. Its claims are inconsistent to its own historic documents. Its nine-dotted line is ridiculous. Below is an excerpt from the link at bottom:
Official Ancient Chinese documents in the years of 1294, 1461 and 1842 as well as 1909, all confirmed that the Southern End of China is the Nanhai District on Hainan Island. [7] A map published in the 17th century by the Dutch East-Indian Company clearly showed that the farthest land of China starts from the South of Hainan Island at 180 North and from there goes up north to 420 latitude. [7]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine-dotted_line

 

QUASAR

9:51 PM ET

June 21, 2011

Slowly

With so much historical friendship between China and Vietnam it would seem contradictory for the tension between the two in the seas... was it staged? With such little maritime power, would a country such as China use a strategy of diversion? This might seem like a game of WeiQi... seemingly unrelated moves... Close ties between Singapore and China, Close ties between Vietnam and China, Close ties between Philippines and US. Caution might be advisable with regard to understanding the true intent...

 

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