Great moments in Osama speculation: Biogeographic data edition

Posted By Joshua Keating Monday, May 2, 2011 - 6:12 PM Share

This post was a big hit for Passport back in 2009 and seems to be getting traffic again today: 

Geography Professor Thomas Gillespie of UCLA has employed a technique typically used for tracking endangered species in order to pinpoint the most likely location of the world's most wanted terrorist. In a paper (pdf) published in the MIT International Review Gillespie describes how he used biogeographic data including bin Laden's last known location, cultural background, security needs, declining health, limited mobility and height to create a mathematical model that he claims will show where the terror mastermind is hiding.[...]

More specifically, he found a 90 percent chance that bin Laden is in Kurram province in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas, most likely in the town of Parachinar which gave shelter to a larger number of Mujahedin during the 1980s.

Gillespie's technique got him a lot closer than Stephonopolous and Ahmadinejad -- Parachinar is about an 8-hour drive from Abottabad according to Google Maps -- and it turned out he was right that bin Laden would be found, not in a cave, but in a compound that that could accommodate "security, electricity, high ceilings to accommodate his 6ft 4in frame and spare rooms for his bodyguard."

On the other hand, you didn't exactly need biogeographic data to tell you that bin Laden was probably in Pakistan. Gillespie's main argument is that the ailing terrorist would not have gone far from the Afghan border region, his last known location. His final home turned out to be much closer to the Kashmir side of Pakistan.

 

MARTY MARTEL

11:44 PM ET

May 2, 2011

U. S. military has given a free pass to Kayani’s Army

Sooner or later U. S. has to wake up to Pakistan’s duplicity in this fight against terrorism.

Even though U. S. government and media are ready to buy Pakistani baloney about it not knowing that Osama bin Laden was living practically next to Pakistani Army base in Abottabad since 2005, fact remains that Osama’s residence was within walking distance from that Army base.

Afterall previous US ambassador Anne Patterson to Pakistan clearly pointed finger at Pakistani Army and ISI for supporting Osama bin Laden‘s Al Qaeda when she wrote in a secret review in 2009 that ‘Pakistan's Army and ISI are covertly SPONSORING four militant groups - Haqqani‘s HQN, Mullah Omar‘s QST, Al Qaeda and LeT - and will not abandon them for any amount of US money‘, as diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks show.

Ambassador Patterson had NO reason to mislead her own State Department and U. S. government.

In this euphoria about Osama’s death, let us NOT forget that U. S. military has given an unnecessary free pass to Kayani’s Pakistani Army for sheltering and SPONSORING Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda as ambassador Patterson wrote so bluntly. Hence U. S. military under General Petraeus is partly responsible for the continuing deaths of US/NATO soldiers in Afghanistan.

 

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