Posted By Blake Hounshell Share

Now that the no-fly zone debate seems to have been settled on the ground in Libya -- it clearly halted an impending massacre in Benghazi, and seems to have given embattled residents in Misrata and Zintan a reprieve -- if not in the U.S. Congress, discussion is now turning to whether to arm the rebels and give them more explicit political support.

Former U.S. ambassador to Libya Gene Cretz addressed this topic obliquely in Friday's press conference. "I'm not going to get into internal discussions about whether we will provide arms or whether we won't provide arms," he said. "I can just say that we're having the full gamut of potential assistance that we might offer, both on the non-lethal and the lethal side, is a subject of discussion within the U.S. government, but there has been no final decisions made on any aspect of that."

NPR subsequently reported, citing Pentagon sources, that among the options being considered were providing the rebels with RPGs -- presumably to use against Qaddafi's tanks, armored personnel carriers, and helicopters. The rebels are eager to get their hands on such weapons.

Many observers are understandably leery of such a step. Not only would it be legally debatable according to the terms of U.N. Security Resolution 1973, which authorized the no-fly/no-drive/no-sail zone in and around Libya, but it would represent a risky escalation in what the Obama administration has been at pains to portray as a TLSLMA -- a "time-limited, scope-limited military action." We may know a few of the familiar faces heading the "transitional council," but do we really know who wields real power and authority among the rebels, to the extent that anyone does? What if they commit a massacre using U.S.-provided weapons? What if they prove to be just as bad as Qaddafi? What if weapons get into the hands of al Qaeda?

And yet there are strong arguments for providing at least small arms. One reason is that weapons are probably going to pour in anyway, perhaps from Egyptian stockpiles or factories and perhaps paid for by Gulf Arab states (indeed, the Wall Street Journal has reported that this is already happening, though Egypt denies it). Another is that the West, or the United States, will have more influence with the rebels if it is arming them than if it doesn't -- and thus may be better placed to shape events going forward. And, of course, the most straightforward reason for giving the rebels weapons is because they may not be able to protect themselves -- let alone defeat Qaddafi's forces -- without them. And given that Obama has said that Qaddafi must go, the United States has staked its prestige on the rebels' victory.

All of that is why opponents of the U.S.-led intervention feared, rightly, that America's involvement in Libya wouldn't stop with a no-fly zone. And yet what was the alternative? To sit back and watch as Qaddafi butchered his own people and re-imposed control over eastern Libya? Then what? And what kind of impact would that have on democratic uprisings elsewhere in the Middle East? Dictators everywhere would learn the lesson that brutality works, and that -- once again -- the words of the international community mean nothing. An early end to the "Arab Spring" could stoke resentment and bitterness for years, with dangerous consequences not only for the region but for Americans and Europeans as well.

None of this is ideal. Congress is unhappy, Obama's own team is divided, the coalition diplomacy is a mess, and opportunistic leaders in China, Russia, and elsewhere are aping Qaddafi propaganda to bash the West. Those looking for consistency in U.S. policy won't find it in Bahrain or Yemen, to take just two examples. Yet thousands of Libyan lives have been saved, millions of Arabs are cheering on Western airstrikes for the first time in history, and one of the world's nastiest tyrants is on his way out. Surely all that is an accomplishment worth celebrating -- and validating by finishing the job.

 

PAPICEK

10:54 AM ET

March 26, 2011

My initial reaction is NO

recognizing the fact that it is more likely the that the French will take this step than we, and bearing in mind that one report I read said that at least one shipment of small arms made it in from Egypt.

Having said all this, I don't see what good strengthening the opposition will do at this point. The domestic political well is poisoned in Libya, for at least one generation, and whatever we do will could only make matters worse.

 

ODYSSEY8

1:27 PM ET

March 26, 2011

Mission creep!

We all know that Gadaffi is a very bad man, but how much do we really know about these rebels that we are now looking to get into bed with?

Their rhetoric at present seems superficially pro-Western, but who is to say that these rebels are not just paying lip service to the West so that they will do the rebels' dirty work for them as far as getting rid of Gadaffi is concerned?

Also, correct me if I am wrong, but didn't our President at the beginning of this crisis clearly state that U.S. involvement in Libya would last "days or weeks at most"? How many time have we heard that before? And how many times after this country's Commander and Chief has made that promise to the American people has "days and weeks" of U.S. involvement turned into years, even decades? Furthermore, does anyone here truly believe that our arming the rebels will get the U.S. out of Libya any sooner? We all remember how well that strategy worked in Vietnam, now don't we? Can you say MISSION CREEP; I thought you could.

 

BRUCEMCL

1:28 PM ET

March 26, 2011

How much credit do we want?

A big problem is that there are a lot of people in Libya who know no other way to make a living than by subjugating the population. How do you retrain people who have worked for the secret police their whole lives? We ignored this problem in Iraq for a long time, which might have been our biggest mistake. Egypt will have to deal with this problem as well.

We want the whole region to find a way to move from authoritarianism to democracy. That's great, but we don't know how to make it happen. I think it will be a painful process with a lot of mistakes. Let's not have people living there blaming the US for any difficulties in what will surely be a difficult process. That will just make things worse.

 

NSAMER

6:15 PM ET

March 26, 2011

The Rebels Have Asked Us To Leave

The Libyan rebel leader Mahmoud Jibril has written a letter to Nicolas Sakozy saying thank you very much for your assistance, but we can take it from here. The letter specifically requests that all outside forces leave Libya.

Although this has made it into the French press (AFP), it has yet to show up in the US press.

What right do the US, UK and France have to be in Libya now?

 

ASAD KHAN

1:18 AM ET

March 27, 2011

Arming the libyan rebels

US supplied stinger missiles to the mujahideen in 1979,now the drones are attacking the talibans.what future holds in libya is anyones guess.

 

DARRENBIGGS

2:33 AM ET

March 27, 2011

Libyan Rebels

In response to the libyan rebels, I believe that the future is anyone's guess, and I guess that ten years of war will ensure, as per Iraq and Afghanistan. Ylod

 

VIGOROUS

12:10 PM ET

March 27, 2011

opportunistic leaders in Russia

....aping Qaddafi propaganda to bash the West.

If this is an example of state-controlled Russian media/leaders
aping Gaddafi's propaganda I'll eat my hat.

Gaddafi loyalists plant bodies at attack sites, says U.S. defense secretary
http://en.rian.ru/world/20110327/163227846.html

 

DFB0003

6:28 PM ET

March 27, 2011

I'm not sure it's fair to say

I'm not sure it's fair to say the United States should provide arms to the rebels simply based on the fact "that weapons are probably going to pour in anyway." That's kind of like saying you should steal something from a store, because eventually someone else will anyway. The United State's lack of true knowledge about the rebel's intentions should honestly be enough to deter them from handing RPG's to them. At this point I would hope the United States is aware of the consequences of handing over weapons to just anyone. Furthermore, the United States doesn’t need to hand over weapons to garner support, the simple fact that they have provided the rebels with a second chance at removing Qaddafi from power, by way of a no fly zone, should encourage wide spread support. It seems like the United States gives and gives but is always expected to provide just a little bit more. In this situation it appears to be time for the United States to put its foot down for the sake of, if nothing else, caution and not provide arms to the rebels. Not to mention giving the rebel forces weapons seems a bit out of line with the Security Council resolution. What’s the point of the Obama administration relying on multilateralism if they’re just going to take everything a few steps farther than the international community has provided?

 

BEEZLE

9:31 PM ET

March 27, 2011

massacre?

Really? You know this for a fact? How many would be killed? 2K? 10K? More than the dead in Japan? Or are we talking Pol Pot numbers? Wars of independence usually result in deaths.. military and civilian.. thats why they are called war. Oh - by the way.. have you prevented the massacre of those still loyal to the regime and its whacko leader?

You and others in the left leaning press have created a myth. Do I feel bad if a few thousand get killed fighting for "freedom"? Yeah, maybe. But that's not a massacre and certainly not enough to justify the expenditures of wealth and risk to our own military personnel. There is no justifiable reason for outside military action in Libya, period.

 

BELISARIUSORB

7:16 AM ET

March 30, 2011

Realism or opportunism?

"Strong arguments for providing at least small arms. One reason is that weapons are probably going to pour in anyway, perhaps from Egyptian stockpiles or factories and perhaps paid for by Gulf Arab states ... Another is that the West, or the United States, will have more influence with the rebels if it is arming them than if it doesn't -- and thus may be better placed to shape events going forward. And, of course, the most straightforward reason for giving the rebels weapons is because they may not be able to protect themselves -- let alone defeat Qaddafi's forces -- without them."

None of these is a strong argument for the US arming the opposition forces. There is absolutely no evidence that they're short of weapons or ammo, indeed they love to shoot their ammo into the air at the least opportunity.

But they are short of military training. They have no command structure, no discipline and no grasp of basic military tactics. Nothing can be done about this in the short term. Military advisors to train them might help if the situation drags on, but has the danger of promoting mission creep towards outside intervention of ground troops in a combat role, which must be avoided at all costs.

The only way forward is to continue to support them with air power and hope that Gaddafi's forces will crumble, or a palace coup will topple him.

 

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