Posted By Joshua Keating Share

If Southern Sudan successfully secedes, will other African pseudo-states follow suit? Guest-blogging at the Christian Science Monitor, Alex Thurston takes a look at Somaliland:

There is one other region in Africa that appears within reach of independent nationhood: Somaliland, which has claimed independence since 1991. Somaliland has its own government and enjoys a greater degree of stability than other regions of Somalia. Recently Somaliland successfully transferred power from one democratically elected leader to another, reinforcing democratic credentials that outshine those of many independent African nations. As crisis continues in southern and central Somalia, moreover, the US and other Western powers are showing greater willingness to consider recognizing Somaliland or at least treating it, de facto, as its own nation.

He also links to an Economist interview with Somaliland's foreign minister, Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo, discussing the referendum (my emphasis): 

If the international community accepts South Sudan’s independence, that opens the door for us as well. It would mean that the principle that African borders should remain where they were at the time of independence would change. It means that if Southern Sudan can go their way, that should open the door for Somaliland’s independence as well and that the international position that Somaliland not be recognised separate from Somalia has changed.

I'm skeptical that the international community's support for Southern Sudanese independence sets much of a precedent outside Sudan. There was similar talk of nationalist movements being emboldened immediately after Kosovo declared independence in 2008, including talk about Somaliland. 

The fact is, new states tend to be recognized by the international community on a case by case basis, and the laws and norms governing who gets to be a country are remarkably arbitrary. Precedents are far less important than they appear. Kosovo and Southern Sudan both had the advantage of having recently been at war with regimes accused of crimes against humanity. The Kremlin may have claimed that Kosovo's independence was a precedent for its recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia several months later, but it actually had a lot more to do with things coming to a head between Russia and Georgia. 

So I don't think Southern Sudan's positive reception indicates an urge to redraw more African borders, no matter how problematic those borders are. (See Bill Easterly's new paper on the artificial states problem.) Somaliland may have a good case for independence, but it will have to get there on its own. 

EXPLORE:AFRICA, BORDERS
 

PMACKENZ

4:10 PM ET

January 12, 2011

Correction

Silanyo is Somaliland's President, not its Foreign Minister.

 

NARZANISTAN

5:02 PM ET

January 12, 2011

The precedent is not independence

A big issue with recognition is with the country from which it breaks away (the metropolitan state). If Sudan accepts South Sudan's sovereignty, then other countries will follow suit. There is a precedent for this in Africa, in Eritrea. Ethiopia fought hard to keep Eritrea but when the time came, Ethiopia recognized their independence and sovereignty. This of course is not the case with Somaliland. Somalia does not accept their independence.
Much of it has to do with the international communities relationship with the metropolitan state, more than the breakaway state. Will China recognize South Sudan if Sudan doesn't? No, because the relationship with Sudan is more important. Would the US recognize Abkhazia in spite of Georgia? Also no. And that is what is unique about Somaliland. What country in the world really cares about a relationship with the utterly failed Somalia? Recognizing Somaliland doesn't cost a country a reliable partner.
And if it's historical precedence people want, Somaliland has that; as it was a different colony than Somalia, with historical colonial boundaries, to which the African Union says they adhere.

 

MAGAIYO

7:51 PM ET

January 12, 2011

China has no choice but to recognize South Sudan

You claim that China will not recognize South Sudan if North Sudan does not, because you claim that China's relationship with North Sudan is more important. This is not true. China's relationship with North Sudan comes from China's huge investment in the Petroleum sector in Sudan. However, the 85% of the currently operating oil fields are in the South. Did you know that? But it is true that the infrastructure--such as pipelines, refineries, etc--go through the North to the Red Sea. So I do think that China's best bet is to play neutral and let the situation play out, which it has been doing especially in the last year or so. Have you heard China saying anything publicly about Sudan or South Sudan or about the Referendum recently? No. So in the end, China's hands are tied and it will have to accept this inevitable outcome. Otherwise, South Sudan can just shut down the Oil fields and the next thing you know is a billion Chinese protesting about higher oil prices in Beijing, Shanghai, etc.

 

USAMA2

1:56 AM ET

January 13, 2011

Global Empires Decide Who Secedes

All of this talk of the "international community" when there really is only one power that decides who is given "independence" and who is forced to be subjugated to majority state.

Let us not pretend that there isn't a global empire which inherited the world order, or took it, from European colonial empires who carved up the planet to suit their whims and desires.

When the Russian Federation was formed out of the USSR, Russia granted referendum votes to Baltic and Slavic nations who promptly seceded. But Chechnya and Dagestan, colonies conquered by the czars, were forced to submit to Moscow without a referendum. And America approved of this because everyone knows that if Russia looses access to the Caucasus mountain ranges, there is only wide open plains from the foothills to Moscow- virtually indefensible in today's military capacity. So the West approved of Russia's imperial conquests in order to sustain its role on the continent and world arena.

Mindinao was a province of the Sultanate of Brunei before European colonial empires invaded the southeast Asian islands. Mindinao was part of the Malay people, but as part of the "DIVIDE AND CONQUER" strategy towards Muslim people, European colonial empires divided Malay people into various segments, forcing Mindinao to be a province of Christian dominated Phillipines.

Somaliland has tried to build relations with the UK and Australia, in particular to harness Somaliland's rich mineral resources. There are estimated to be 100s of billions worth in coal and other minerals in Somalia.

Pretending that there is an "international community" that decides the "fate" of tiny helpless nations is dishonest and fraudulent. And to PERPETRATE that foreign agendas weren't in play to force secession is also a fraud.

For the record, Colombia tried to build the Panama canal with French assistance, but failed. Thereafter, America fomented a "Panamanian" rebellion for independence. After clashes, America stepped in and forced Colombia to allow Panamanian independence, which it did. Promptly after, America set up a major military base for 90 years and built the Panama canal.

An innocent force for independence?

Southern Sudan has oil and minerals and China has had mineral rights for decades for the region. A new nation would present new legal rights. It would also force that new nation to be subservient and dependent upon America and others.

America educated, trained, and supported the SPLA for decades in order to bring about secession. I guarantee you that if a foreign power had supported the American Confederate army, it would very likely had succeeded in sustaining secession.

 

GRANT

9:26 AM ET

January 13, 2011

That honestly makes no sense

That honestly makes no sense and could only be argued by ignoring quite a bit of history and politics (not to mention the English language). In order of your arguments:

1. The West couldn't care less about Chechnya and Dagestan. What the West wants is the place relatively peaceful and not exporting crime and terrorism. Independent or part of Russia that is all the West wants. For that matter, if the West wanted to keep Russia strong then why on Earth would the West push for Ukraine (which controls the Crimean peninsula and a vital port) to be free of Russia or for Moldova (which has a plain perfect for attacking Russia) to be independent?

2. The issue of Brunei was over a century ago.

3. I have no idea what your point is on Somaliland. In fact you don't actually state any points. You simply make the assertion that Somaliland is trying to build ties to states without giving any context or opinion.

4. Assuming that there isn't an 'international community' ignores the existence of the United Nations, the African Union, the Arab League, the Organization of American States and many other international organizations. You are correct that they do not decide the fate of small states (at least not directly) but that hardly means that anyone else decides the fate of small states either.

5. The Panama affair (like Brunei) was roughly a century ago, under a very different geopolitical system. Since then the U.S has allowed the Panama Canal to fall under the control of Panama itself. If we were really the global empire you seem to think we are then why would we take that risk?

6. How on Earth would a new nation be forced to be "subservient and dependent upon America and others"? If South Sudan was really so subservient to the U.S we would have forced them to stop using child soldiers. For that matter what does "[a] new nation would present new legal rights." even mean? Honestly I have no idea what that sentence means. My English teachers would pull out their hair if they read it.

7. I'm not exactly sure what your point is on the first and on the second you ignore the fact that the North had a massive advantage in manpower and industry that meant the South simply couldn't keep up.

 

GRANT

9:10 AM ET

January 13, 2011

It isn't really arbitrary

It isn't really arbitrary concerning which states are recognized. It's a matter of political realities. The global community wants a Somalia to exist so they hold off on recognizing places like Puntland or Somaliland even though those two have better claims to being states.

 

MARTISOOR

11:03 PM ET

January 13, 2011

arbitrary

Grant.
In the name of "arbitration", could you revisit political realities prevailing in Somaliland and the incomparitive adminstration of Puntland..Pls.

 

GRANT

6:03 AM ET

January 14, 2011

As I said, the political

As I said, the political reality is that the international community prefers for a Somalia to exist. It doesn't matter what the situation is on the ground.

 

MAGAIYO

5:41 PM ET

January 13, 2011

USAMA2 is 100% wrong about Sudan, and possibly everything else..

USAMA2,

You are very wrong about Sudan, my friend.

I am a Sudanese and I was in Sudan during the war.

In fact, the U.S supported North Sudan ( or the government of Sudan) for most of the war, from 1955 to 2005. The U.S government stopped supporting the Khartoum regimes starting in 1989 when Omar Bashir took over power by a military coup. 1989 is the year.

Now, the U.S only starting paying attention to the human suffering in Sudan in the 1990s. And do you know why? I doubted it. During the 1990s, Osama Bin Laden was in Sudan at the peak of Islamic fundamentalism in the country. Sudanese politicians like Bashir and Hassan al Turabi were pushing through with their Islamization and Arabic in the South Sudan. It was this time that the government declared Jihad on the Southern populace. Villages were burned down in the name of Allah. Air crafts came three to four times a day to bomb villages, huts, etc. These aircrafts, which were sent from Khartoum, came in the morning, the afternoon, and the evening. It was devastating. And this is why Southerners are sure to vote for 100% secession. They know what unity means to them and it is death.

Now about the U.S, it forced out Osama bin Laden in 1997, and the U.S bombed a pharmaceutical plant in Khartoum in 1997, because Clinton thought it was weapons factory. This is the time that the U.S made a 180 degrees turn in policy in Sudan.

From this period onward, the U.S intensified humanitarian efforts, food, shelter, etc. U.S was never supplying weapons to South Sudan ( or the South's army, SPLA). Maybe now the U.S is helping the South as it professionalize it former rebel army into a fullblown conventional army.

My Question is: Why do all arabs thinks everything wrong with them has to do with the West or America. It is ridiculous. Wake it and pay attention to the issues. Analyze on a case by case basis.

Arabs are now saying that the problem in Sudan is America ( and the West)'s conspiracy to break up another arab country. Well, Sudan is not an arab country to begin with. It is an African country. Those Sudanese have just been brainwashed to think that they are arabs, when in fact they are treated like trash in the Middle East by the real arabs. Sudan is atleast 90% Black. Just wait until arab-wannabes Sudanese like Darfuris wake up and realize their sorry situations and the idea of Sudan as being an arab country will soon come to an end.

So, arabs need to stop crying over Sudan. There was war in Sudan for 50 years and they were supporting the North as it promoted and executed Jihad against the southern populace. Luckily the southerners have pulled through with the war and now they are in a situation to depart and leave behind their racist, arab-wannabe brothers in the North. That is the problem of the arab world. They care about arab power and prestige to the point that they become oblivious to the actual human suffering. Is your God really race neutral?

Really?

 

MARTISOOR

10:49 PM ET

January 13, 2011

Somailand recognition following S.Sudan State

May I remind FP viewers that as most of African sovereign nations, Somaliland also got independence from the Britain on 26 June1960, and over 39 strong countries recognised Somaliland as a sovereign state with viable government, defined bounderies and supporting population.
Now that African Union opted for Africans and would be states respect as pre-colonial bounderies, and applying that very point on Somaliland for over a period of 20 years - while overlooking the mere fact the would be State of Somaliland only re-claimed their pre-colonial borders and issue the was not applicabe. Furthermore, it was the AU host and then leading Stat of Ethiopia who propogated for territorial bounderies left as colonil powers left them (even if left opression blunders behind), mainly to bury Somali Government's claims of land and people in both Ethiopia and Kenya.Such shameful AU charter was holding until the irony of Ethiopia giving independence to Erirea came to being and thus breaking it before anyone else.
If however, a sovereign State of Southern Sudan comes to being and issue of Somaliland recognition was not reconsidered by the AU, it will be a tragedy to view legalised injustice of applying law to some and not to onother.

 

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