Monday, December 6, 2010 - 6:58 PM

It's all the rage. Got a contested election in a fragile African country? Send in the elderly statesmen, make the warring parties sit down, and force them both into an uncomfortable but face-saving unity government. It happened in Zimbabwe, where President Robert Mugabe now shares power with the real vote-winner, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai. It happened in Kenya, where incumbant President Mwai Kibaki was force-married with Prime Minister and rival Raila Odinga. And now, it's in danger of happening again in Cote d'Ivoire.
The mayhem in Cote d'Ivoire is serious. The country's presidential election was delayed repeatedly since 2005. When it finally took place, the results were delayed until international pressure came sufficiently to bear. The opposition candidate Alassane Ouattara is believed to have won and has been endorsed by international observers. But both he and the incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo have now held swearing-in ceremonies.
So the temptation arises for a coalition. Le Monde has already floated the possibility, and African Union meditor (and former South African President) Thabo Mbeki has already flown to Abidjan. How else can we get both sides peacefully to come to some sort of agreement? But Zimbabwe and Kenya should be evidence enough of why not. Both pacts have ended in stagnation, infighting, and political deadlock. Ending the short-term crisis has come at the cost of sacrificing long-term political development.
Just take Zimbabwe, where the unity government may well have simply delayed the crisis. After months of being sidelined from Mugabe's unilateral decision-making, Prime Minister Tsvangirai has repeatedly boycotted his own government. He has been forced to sacrifice his entire reform agenda in favor of focusing all his political capital on a single goal: another election. There's no reason to believe another vote will go any differently that the last, when Mugabe lost and still claimed victory. Kenya has likewise proved troublesome; the president and prime minister are rumored to have gone months without talking. And so great was mediator Kofi Annan's frustration with the government's inability to push reforms and prosecute perpetrators of the 2008 election violence that he referred the names of the offenders to the International Criminal Court himself.
Now to Cote d'Ivoire, where the situation has more in common with Kenya and Zimbabwe than just its potential for turmoil. Here, as in those two countries, the two political rivals aren't just political foes but personal ones who are not likely to work well together (if the current standoff isn't evidence enough.) Incumbent Gbagbo, who lost, blames Ouattara for imprisoning him when the former was a rebel leader long ago. Ouattara, meanwhile, can't possibly feel fondly toward Gbagbo, having been barred from previous elections for his supposed non-Ivorian roots tracing to Burkina Faso.
It would be great if these two could get along. But the stakes are too high to let them try while running a country. Cote d'Ivoire's government is already suffering. And tensions have left more than a dozen dead in rival protests. Reconciliation is great and much needed -- but probably not best handled within the country's top office.
It would seem that a whole lot of folks WITHOUT an intimate knowledge of the country are all ready to propose solutions that are comfortable and well bundled up for them.
No one seems to really care much about the sovereignty of the country nor the respect of institutions and procedures in the Ivory Coast.
There is an electoral process enshrined in law that was NOT respected. Did the world stand up to the US Supreme Court when George W. Bush was declared President after the disputed Florida results? No, the world accepted aghast!
But obviously this is Africa...third world....some are convinced that they can gloss over irregularities, dictate, impose THEIR solutions. Fraud is OK, as long as the solution they would like to see in place.
Sarkosy has long been opposed to Gbago because Gbago defended the interests of Ivory Coast before that of France, who would love to continue to exploit to their advantage.
Sarkosy would have been among the first consulted by US, ONU, etc, and he wants Ouattara in place to guarantee French domination, etc.
It seems to hardly matter to any one that there was ACKNOWLEDGED widespread fraud and intimidation in the northern areas, which automatically invalidated the results from that area.
It seems to hardly matter to anyone that the UN's role was to validate process , not outcome and results. Since WHEN does the UN decide on the final results of an independent sovereign nations, to the exclusion of that country's laws? Then they should have opposed GWB's nomination by the Supreme Court, not to mention the illegal invasion of IRAQ, not to mention Israel's flaunting of all international law.
So now, a cohort of international bullies want to impose their wishes on the Ivory Coast, because they would like it to be so.
Of course, ECOWAS, has to follow in stride, their hands are tied, but facts are facts, and many do not want the facts to get in the way.
When President Obama visited Ghana last year, in a major address there, he insisted that what Africa needed was strong institutions, not strong men.....yet there is a blatant and deplorable effort by international institutions to discredit the institutions of the Ivory Coast.
In the widely publicized world reactions to the elections in the Ivory Coast, one must note certain flagrant and despicable facts, that all go to perpetrate the long standing push to dominate and to impose by the stronger countries.
A desire to impose solutions that are convenient or favorable to them, or fit their world view:
- blatant disregard for reports of accredited observers on the ground in the widely disputed areas of the North and West, key to the matter. These observers were mainly Africans from other countries....but their impartial reports and recommendations were deliberately ignored.
- the very illegitimate way in which "initial" non certified results were proclaimed by ONE man from the Electoral commission, escaping from the headquarters of the Commission to go to the seat of Ouattara to alone give numbers to foreign news media. And immediately these non certified results are proclaimed by the UN and the world as official.
The UN had accomplished its mission, and had once again set the scene for Africans to start a war and killing spree. Short term objectives by world powers and institutions with little concern for the impact on lives of millions.
- France's obvious and very bias role in wanting to be rid of his Ivoirian nemesis, Laurent Gbagbo, and leading the efforts to form world opinion in this regard.
- The ECOWAS declaration concerning the recognition of Alassane Ouattara as "President" was made with only 4 of 15 members present.
Who can blame them? They know on which side their bread is buttered......eternally corrupt beggars. Those who had some sliver of conscience remaining preferred to stay at home.
- The United Nations very obvious meddling and wanting to dictate to the Supreme institutions of a sovereign country. It is unconscionable; it would seem that he had a mandate to confirm a certain candidate.
It is always pitiful to see in what countries such an institution tries to play some kind of dictated bias role. Effort to justify its existence. Why not go to Israel, or China or even to the prisons of America? where such an institution would have guaranteed employment for at least half a century?
At the end of the day, I am most proud of the way that the Gbago camp and the Ivoirian legal community has been quietly and with dignity building its case, laying out the facts for those calm heads who wish to examine the situation with impartiality and dispassion. Heads that have no hidden agenda, no interests to defend, no scores to settle....hence no rush to judgment.
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