Posted By Joshua Keating Share

First of all, whatever you think of his politics, give Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa -- who was assaulted and briefly held hostage by his own police officers yesterday in what he describes as an attempted coup d'etat -- some credit for cojones:

Mr. Correa had gone to the barracks to address the police complaints in person. A shouting match ensued, and at one point, he loosened his tie and opened his shirt as if to show that he was not wearing a bulletproof vest. “If you want to kill the president, here he is,” he said. “Kill him, if you want to. Kill him if you are brave enough.”

They didn't.

One day later, Correa seems to be reasserting control. The police chief has resigned and Correa plans to overhaul the force. While order seems to be returning for now, some observers are interpreting yesterday's events -- coming on the heels of last year's coup in Honduras -- as a sign that democracy is increasingly under threat in Latin America and that the region may be at risk of returning to the bad old days where coups and armed insurrection were a regular feature of politics.

Ecuador certainly doesn't have the best track record in this respect -- the country went through eight presidents in the decade before Correa took power, three of them driven from power by street protests -- but it would still be a mistake to read too much into the latest instability. 

First of all, it's not quite clear yet if yesterday's events really did constitute a coup d'etat. Correa has blamed the opposition Patriotic Society Party for fomenting the unrest, but no political groups have taken credit for what was -- on the surface at least -- an out-of-control wage strike by the police force. 

Secondly, if it was a coup, it was a remarkably ineffective one. The military leadership stood behind Correa, ultimately rescuing him from the police, and the country's top military officer went on the radio to say, "“We are a state of law... We are subordinated to the maximum authority, which is the president of the republic.”  

The left-wing Correa is a controversial leader internationally, but yesterday he received the unanimous support of foreign leaders, from Venezuela's Hugo Chavez to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

Some may not like the fact that the U.S.  government is pledging "full support" for a leader of unabashedly advocates "socialist revolution" and directly opposes U.S. military interests. But the fact that coup-plotters can no longer count on superpower backing for knocking over unpopular governments is a big reason wh coups happen a lot less often than they used to and why and are more likely to result in a quick return to democracy -- as in Honduras -- when they do happen. (In any case, the ideological categories are a bit jumbled on this one since it was a backlash against a socialist leader for cutting benefits to state workers -- perhaps another sign of the times.)

This Sunday, Brazilians will go to the polls to elect a new president. Just 25 years after the end of military dictatorship, that country's democracy today seems unassailably robust and despite the country's many problems, its citizens are remarkably optimistic about the future. If this weekend's events in Brazil are a hopeful sign of Latin America's future, yesterday's violence in Ecuador is a ghost of a darker past, but not a reason to think that the bad old days are coming back. 

RODRIGO BUENDIA/AFP/Getty Images

EXPLORE:SOUTH AMERICA
 

SAM FROM CALIFORNIA

9:47 PM ET

October 1, 2010

Presidente Manual: How to Run your Latin American State,Rule #1

Don't ever cut the wages of organized State employees with guns. It tends to end badly. Anyways, its good to see order restored, it is surprising to see a socialist having a problem with discontent state employees though.

 

GRANT

2:11 AM ET

October 2, 2010

In this era it is more likely

In this era it is more likely that international apathy will replace great power backing as the main cause of success for coups. Think of Guinea which, despite a massacre and great outcry, has slipped out of notice and seems as though its transition to democracy may be stalled.

 

GALENCBAYNES

6:10 PM ET

October 3, 2010

To state that Honduras has

To state that Honduras has now returned to democracy demonstrates a very one-sided and misinformed understanding of what is happening there. The new administration led by Porfirio Lobo has pushed to create an image (which the U.S. has played an integral role in developing by recognizing elections held in an atmosphere of state violence, media blackouts, assassinations carried out by the de facto government after the coup - elections which were boycotted by international observers including the Carter Center, the OAS and the European Union) of a flourishing democracy in Honduras. But since Lobo came to power 9 journalists have been murdered, members of the resistance movement continue to be attacked, and impunity is so rampant that the general that led the coup - Romeo Vasquez Velasquez - is now the head of the state telecommunications company. If this constitutes democracy, Mr. Keating, I fear for the future of Latin America that you envision.

 

ENRENEC

2:25 PM ET

October 4, 2010

Latin America still has problems with it´s past

Let´s not forget that the Correa government has a definite totalitarian flavor having nationalized some of the television channels and continues on a plan to put the educational systems and all communication mediums under the personal control of Rafael Correa - television coverege of the uprising was covered only by controlled media and striking policemen were not allowed to broadcast their complaints on Tv as had happened in the past. Also, the way Correa responded to the uprising- going directly to the police and provoking them - is a good way to increase tension and therefore his control. Something he has had problems doing through the ¨democratic¨institutions until the opportunity presented itself.

These are already dictatorial regimes although it remains to be seen for how long.

Let´s not forget that Honduras is a stopping point for the drug trade and former president Zelaya wasn´t much of a revolutionary until some time into his term.

 

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