Writing for Nature,  Eugenie Samuel Reich discusses a little-noted, but impending deadline:

Owing to a 2008 law passed by Congress, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy has until 15 October to decide which agency will be responsible for protecting the planet from an asteroid strike. Members of the task force say NASA expects to be given part or all of that responsibility. To meet it, the panel discussed the creation of a Planetary Protection Coordination Office (PPCO) within NASA, with an annual budget of $250 million–$300 million. It would detect and track asteroids — and develop a capability to deflect them. "You want to use a proven capability when you're talking about an actual threat," says Rusty Schweickart, a former astronaut and the other panel co-chair.

The PPCO would also challenge other countries to fund defence against asteroids, perhaps through the United Nations. Canada already plans to launch the NEO [near-earth objects] Survey Satellite in 2011, and Germany's AsteroidFinder is slated for launch in 2012, but neither is expected to come close to the NEO-logging goal by 2020.

The U.S. currently spends about $5.5 million per year to track NEO's and less than a million on researching ways to counter them, but is falling far short of asteroid-detection goals. Some might say that's already too much, given the more terrestrial problems the U.S. faces. On the other hand, the United States spends more than $1 billion -- the amount NASA says it needs to meet its goal of detecting all potentially dangerous objects by 2020 -- on far less lofty goals than saving humanity from the fate of the dinosaurs. Even an asteroid just one kilometer in diameter would be enough to cause worldwide crop failures and a shift in the earth's climate. One just a few meters wide could wipe out a major city.

But why, in this supposedly post-American world, is the United States expected to take the lead on this? Unlike, say, missile defense, asteroid detection and deterrence benefits all countries -- if NASA does detect a potentially dangerous asteroid, chances are it's probably going to hit somewhere else. And unlike global warming, smaller developing countries can't say that the United States should accept more of the blame for asteroids. (Though Hugo Chavez could certainly try.)

Scientists have been urging the United Nations to coordinate international asteroid detection efforts for years. But despite coordinating work by the the U.N. Office for Outer Space Affairs (yes, there is one), progress seems to be slow-going. 

There are some promising signs of other powers starting to take the lead. The Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs hosted a conference on international asteroid tracing earlier this year. Russia's space agency has also proposed a joint asteroid monitoring project with the European Union.

The good news is we probably have some time. An object big enough to wipe out a sizeable portion of the earth's population only hits about twice every million years. But the international community's recording in coordinating the international response to much more immediate dangers like global warming its not encouraging for those who would prefer not to rely on Bruce Willis or Morgan Freeman when the big one comes some day. 

 

MISHMAEL

9:21 PM ET

September 13, 2010

Seriously

if the US stopped monitoring near earth asteroids, nobody would miss it. The risk from such a threat is so small that no nation takes that as an imminent threat to spend money on defeating. Asteroids would be considered a natural disaster like earthquakes, tsunamis, etc. and therefore would not be considered a military matter or one requiring constant attention by political leaders.
The fact is that the US simply has both the financial capacity and the wherewithal to undertake such activities. The US is quite literally the only country with enough military largess to devote millions to combating rocks from space as well as satisfactory arguments to justify this expenditure.
The author is apparently complaining that in a world where the US is constantly mocked for its impotence, some of its activities should be carried on by others. Luckily for taxpayers everywhere, most nations are not inclined to fund the kinds of thing the US funds. Of course, having some sort of internationally funded organization to protect humanity from the apocalypse is an excellent idea, the fact is that nation-states are still the dominant organization at this stage of human civilization.
Also, I'm pretty sure that many countries have the ability to launch missiles into space with decent aim.

 

WALKING WOUNDED

5:35 AM ET

September 14, 2010

If the threat is so small, why is the moon winking at us?

The Tanguska event of 1908 flattened roughly a thousand sq miles, which is something to think about, when making risk assumptions. The much larger K-T (Chicxulub impact) event that wiped out most surface animals 25M years ago puts some time scale into the risk of a super-event, which is more or less 100%, if mankind survives long enough.

There is some question why the strike interval during the last half-billion years has decreased from what is evident on the moon's face. Is it just that most objects have now been scavenged or shepherded into circular orbits, or was there an ancient outer Oort cloud disturbance that pushed comets into highly eccentric planet-grazing orbits?

BTW, that is an icy-gassy comet depicted in the pic, not an asteroid. It might be easier to get an EPA permit to demo a comet, on the theory that the debris would evaporate, rather than return to haunt Buzz Lightyear as a shotgun blast of hyperspeed rocks.

 

ADAMOLUPIN

3:08 PM ET

September 14, 2010

"Also, I'm pretty sure that

"Also, I'm pretty sure that many countries have the ability to launch missiles into space with decent aim."

To paraphrase a movie quote: "And turn one big falling object into a bunch of little ones."

 

MALICEIT

9:26 PM ET

September 13, 2010

RE:

How many nations around the world have pet protection services ? too much money and not enough brains.

 

ZORRO

2:09 PM ET

September 14, 2010

Boondoggle

Who gives a ***insert forbidden word*** about asteroids?
I'd say that humanity is on the path to extinction on a much shorter time frame than that.

 

WALKING WOUNDED

6:04 PM ET

September 14, 2010

Path to extinction

You can say it excludes space collision, but unless we've gathered data and run some numbers, we really don't know.

I'm a manned space flight (budget) skeptic, but the future here on the planet with chocolate, or exploring space, is something all mankind can share and even be inspired with.

Being depressed got Malthus nowhere, and being an enviro party pooper in Florida gained nothing for Nader. Being an optimist got Reagan rich, elected President, and in a position to do something about the US-Soviet nuclear arms race.

The evidence-based solution to the population curve is to take care of the kids we got. That's not so hard to sell or get started on. The budget to explore space and maybe play Asteroids for real is dependent on managing the resources we've got, which includes a lot of really versatile sunlight and water, along with enough cheap iron and carbon to build and populate a whole planet.

 

RAGGEDT

3:29 PM ET

September 14, 2010

Asteroids...

Because the whole world knows that whenever America elects a black president, we become responsible for asteroid containment. It's known as The Freeman Effect.

 

JONATHANN

5:19 PM ET

September 14, 2010

Because really...

it isn't a post-American world. The book was lousy and filled with holes.

Fareed Zakaria can huff and puff his wares all he likes. His central thesis has been all over the board the last few years, from "decoupling" (remember that?) to "decline" to "the rise of everyone else".

Ho hum. The United States is still protecting the world from Asteroids, driving rovers around Mars, sending Probes to Saturn, Jupiter and Pluto and launching more rockets (of all types) into space every year than Brazil, India and China have in their entire history.

Yeah... post-American world my left foot.

 

GREGHE

8:07 PM ET

September 14, 2010

It's not

It's not America's "job" to defend the world against asteroids. And no one is making the argument that it is. In fact, it's not anybody's "job" to protect the world against asteroids, so the entire question posed by this article is irrelevant.

The real question for NASA, for Congress, and for Americans, boils down to a simple cost-to-benefit calculation. Is detecting near-Earth objects (NEOs) worth the relatively modest (indeed, in terms of the U.S. budget, tiny) outlay, given the widespread destruction that even a relatively small asteroid (or comet) would cause - should one strike the Earth?

It is also foolish to assume that an bollide impact would likely cause damage wholly outside of the United States (as if lives outside the U.S are somehow worth less than lives within the U.S). Two-thirds of our planet is covered by water; an asteroid hitting one of the Earth's oceans could well send an enormous tsunami toward one of America's densely-populated coasts.

 

DEVILTAKETHEHINDMOST

2:23 AM ET

September 16, 2010

Why is it America's job to save the world from asteroids?

Because no state would be willing to share the technology involved for a successful asteroid deflection with other states.

 

KEITH L

5:06 PM ET

September 17, 2010

Because

if we leave it up to Burkina Faso, it is unlikely to get done.

 

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