The problem that I see right now is a failure to distinguish between elements that intended to stage a peaceful protest from those who intended to incite violence. I heard some words from the PM to that effect, but it doesn't seem to be fully integrating into the situation on the ground.

Since the arson and riots that followed the disbanding of the demonstrations, public condemnation of the Red Shirts seems universal, forgetting that the thousands who constituted the majority were normal family people, indeed, protesting with their families, and that the militants were thought to be around 500.

The consequence of this is a feeling in the country that it is a shame to have been a Red Shirt, and that the Red Shirts are enemies of the people. Again, I have heard words from the PM saying that this distinction must be made, but you don't see it in the implementation. For example, the persons being summoned to prove that their financial transactions did not fund the Red Shirt demonstrations makes it appear as if funding a protest is illegal. What needs to be distinguished is whether the funds were used to finance the militants, which would be nearly impossible to prove, and hence makes the entire proceeding an exercise in futility.

What would be difficult to establish, but perhaps not impossible, is how many of the Red Shirt leaders were aware of the militant faction. Surely all knew of Seh Daeng and the Red Shirt guard organization. But the legitimate mainstream of the majority of Red Shirt guards received positive press coverage for exemplary actions in containing angry Red Shirts in confrontations with security forces and counter-demonstrators, even in protecting Thai soldiers who found themselves surrounded by Red Shirts. But the clandestine paramilitary organization was much smaller, and it is not clear how much the leaders knew about them and their mission. I would guess that the mainstream protesters knew nothing about them.

There has also been some commentary on weapons stashes found after the protest was dispersed. I would think there is some credit to the fact that they were stashed away rather than issued to protesters to fight. Perhaps they were captured weapons that leaders confiscated to prevent their use.

I can't speak for Thaksin's private thoughts, but I am concerned about the seemingly universal tendency to blame him for everything when the fact is that we just don't know. It seems to convenient, though, to have him for a scapegoat to make the object of blame.

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Noppadon is a very rich man after several years on Thaksin's high finance payroll. When Noppadon speaks, they listen intently at the Royal Palace and at Government House because they know Thaksin himself is speaking. Anytime and every time Noppa-dope foreshadows violence, mayhem comes to Thailand such as in 2009, when mobs of Redshirts attacked the building where the leaders of ASEAN were meeting, forcing prime ministers and presidents to scramble onto helicopters as they landed on the roof, all the while Thaksin screaming into his broadcast cellphone, "Revolution!"

The iron triangle of the Royal Palace, the army and the present government are a tuff nut for the Redshirts to crack. So they need to be patient, not aggressive and certainly not violent. The Redshirts need to separate themselves from Thaksin and to rebuke Noppadope unfailingly, immediately as he opens his lawyer's mouth. The 82 year old ailing monarch, who hasn't ever had any respect of a constitution, will be reincarnating very soon. The government needs to call an election, even as it continues to hold out to the last possible time which is late next year. The divisions within the watermelon army are sharp and are without precedent. The whole of the ancien regime is crumbling surprisingly fast.

However, as we witnessed during their nationally televised, live impromptu debates with PM Abhisit during their siege of Bangkok, the Redshirt leadership is as prepared to assume government as are a class of fifth graders. Despite Thaksin's highly financed global PR Machine, the fact is the Redshirt leaders are being paid by Thaksin to seize government power and authority so Thaksin's criminal convictions can be nullified and all of the dozens of pending serious charges against him vacated. Thaksin back in power at Government House would constitute the resumption of his long-running design of a dictatorship that was interrupted by the king's 2006 coup (his last ever real involvement in a long reign of absolute disregard of modern constitutional monarchy).

The Crown Prince and Thaksin are two peas in a pod, which is why they're known to some as the Two Toxins. While one will ascend to power and Thaksin may well regain it, and the two famously harbor varying authoritarian schemes, this observer doesn't see how Thailand can be big enuff for the two while each of them is grabbing all the power and money he can. We're talking about a country that already is a severe basket case and which will only get unimaginably worse.

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