I've just read an alarming paper (pdf) by Antonio Giustozzi and Christoph Reuter, a well-regarded Afghanistan expert and a veteran German journalist.
Surveying the last few months of reporting on the Taliban's efforts to infiltrate northern Afghanistan -- not a traditional Taliban stronghold -- the authors conclude that after years of little success, the group's campaign is "beginning to have an impact."
"Steadily,
over
years,
and
withstanding
their
initial
failures," they write, the Taliban "has
established
areas
of
local
dominance
by
sending
cadres
to
different
parts
of
the
north."
The Taliban's gains in Kunduz province, which lies across the Amu Darya River fromTajikistan, have been well documented. At least one key district, Chardara, is under complete Taliban control, and other areas of the province are under threat.
Kunduz is something of a special case, as the province is roughly half Pashtun and therefore more amenabe to Taliban influence. But Giustozzi and Reuter say the Taliban is making disturbing progress in winning over Pashtuns in neighboring Faryab province, and even non-Pashtuns are signing up with the rebels.
"Evidence
is
mounting
that
Uzbeks,
Turkmen,
Aimaqs
and
to
a
lesser
extent,
Tajiks
are
being
drawn
into
the
Taleban’s
ranks
in
significant
numbers," the report reads.
What seems to be happening, aside from a concerted push from Pakistan-based Taliban leaders to establish a northern foothold, is that the growing weakness and enduring corruption of the government is pushing people into the enemy camp.
The coalition ignores or dismisses this trend at its peril, the authors warn.
"Moving
north
strengthens
their
claim
to
be
the
legitimate
government
of
Afghanistan
and
to
be
fighting
for
the
whole
country,
not
just
for
a
particular
region
or
ethnic
group. Furthermore,
there
is
no
doubt
that
the
psychological
impact
of
the
north’s
destabilisation
upon
Western
Europe
and
the
US
would
be
considerable."
Read More
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