Posted By David Kenner
Tuesday, June 22, 2010 - 1:57 PM
Share
A few months back, I had a pleasant lunch at a Turkish restaurant in Dupont Circle with representatives of a nascent Turkish political party, TDH. The party billed itself as a Western-oriented alternative to the ruling AKP party -- and also as more dynamic and forward-looking than the CHP, the opposition party that has been the traditional home of secular Turks. It turned out to be a short-lived venture: Today, party leader Mustafa Sarigul announced that he was abandoning his plans to establish TDH as an independent political party, and would throw his support behind the CHP is Turkey's 2011 general election.
Sarigul suggested that international and domestic developments -- a reference to Prime Minister Erdogan's vociferous criticism of Israel in the wake of the Gaza flotilla disaster and the recent flare-up of Turkish-Kurdish tensions -- were the reason TDH leaders had to "act as statesmen and unite" with opposition groups. The real reason, however, probably has more to do with changes in the CHP, and within Turkey's political climate. After the resignation of CHP leader Deniz Baykal following a sex scandal, his replacement, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has mended bridges with Baykal's old rivals -- including Sarigul.
Just as importantly, the Turkish opposition seems to have gained new life. Two recent polls found that the CHP was polling at its highest level in years, now receiving the support of approximately 30 percent of Turks. There are a variety of possible reasons for this improvement in the party's fortunes: the new leadership of Kilicdaroglu, Turkish anger that the AKP's much-celebrated "Kurdish opening" failed to achieve results, discontent over Erdogan's Middle East adventurism, and double-digit unemployment in a job market that still has not turned the corner following the international recession. Whatever the reason for the CHP's revival, its newfound strength makes it unlikely that there would be political space for a nascent party such as TDH to establish a foothold.
The 2011 election is still a year away -- a lifetime in politics. But it looks like the Turkish opposition is going to enter campaign season unified and energized in a way that must have Erdogan sweating.
Erdogan may not be defeatable IF
If The United States continues to show favor to Israel over it's long time NATO ally Turkey, then the Turkish people simply won't support Western-Oriented parties. The rejection by the European Union gave the AKP it's clear majority when it turned East. The European rejection gave Erdogan the chance to re-imagine Turkey and develop the 'zero problems' policy that has seen Turkey engage more with it's immediate neighbors rather than Europe. For a time this was good for the West and even Israel. Turkey was in a position to broker talks between Israel and Syria and Lebanon, and trade with Israel increased as Turkey looked East instead of West.
However Israel overplayed it's hand with Turkey, thinking Turkey was still in the West's pocket. Attacking Lebanon and Gaza without consulting Turkey while Turkey was in the middle of diplomacy with Syria and Israel was seen by Erdogan and Turkey as a personal betrayal. Add that with killing Turkish citizens in international waters and even threatening war with Turkey was the last straw in regards to Israel.
NOW with the United States abandoning it's long time NATO ally (who has troops in Afghanistan by the way..........) the people of Turkey will want to look even further away from the West. The West says that Turkey must MUST engage Israel no matter how badly Israel acts, however that is no longer acceptable in the Turkish street.
Erdogan will be gone as soon as the US and NATO makes clear that if Israel gets into a war with Turkey, that NATO, including the US will back NATO member Turkey, and when the US stops writing blank checks for Israel and looks to the Middle East with Turkey not just in mind, but on board.
Erdogan and the AKP only survives so long as NATO and the West works to marginalize Turkey in the Middle East.
why is it that people can only think in terms of doomesday
scenarios.
.
Israel is not going to war with Turkey, nor is Turkey going to go to war with Israel.
.
Sorry folks, but that's a show that is just not on the schedule. PM Edrogen may have a wish to pull Turkey towards Syria and Iran, but its a far cry from engaging in a war with another modern state.
.
Travel back in time to 2003 when an Arab reporter asked the Egyptian minister of defense why Egypt didn't up and invade Israel to support the Palestinians. The MOD replied that a war with Israel would cost upwards of $100 billion, funds that the government just didn't have, and he didn't see anyone offering to pay for such a military adventure either.
.
While Turkey's economy is much larger than Egypt, it makes no rational sense for Turkey to all of a sudden declare war on Israel.
.
Certainly Turkey isn't going to wind up occupying Israel, and the idea of 'liberating the Palestinians' is one of cheap talk given that Egypt, Jordan, and Syria all have designs on the land, and should the Jewish state get destroyed, they're hardly going to allow some non-Arab Turks come in and claim it for themselves.
.
But what F1Fan also needs to realize is that Edrogan is not Turkey, he's just a politician. And as has been seen during the past year, US administrations can warm or cool to allies, even NATO ones. If Turkey is a NATO ally, then NATO allies are going to remind the Turkish government that it should act like one.
.
But, at the end of the day, its the locals that will decide if the AKP is best for them, or if its policies have gone too far. That's unless Edrgan has pushed Turkey down the path of personality cult like Hugo Chavez. But that's a story for 2011.
However Israel overplayed it's hand with Turkey, thinking Turkey was still in the West's pocket. Attacking Lebanon and Gaza without consulting Turkey while Turkey was in the middle of diplomacy with Syria and Israel was seen by Erdogan and Turkey as a personal betrayal. Add that with killing Turkish citizens in international waters and even threatening war with Turkey was the last straw in regards to Israel.
NOW with the United States abandoning it's long time NATO ally (who has troops in Afghanistan by the way..........) the people of Turkey will want to look even further away from the West. The West says that Turkey must MUST engage Israel no matter how badly Israel acts, however that is no longer acceptable in the Turkish street.
Erdogan will be gone replica IWC as soon as the US and NATO makes clear that if Israel gets into a war with Turkey, that NATO, including the US will back NATO member Turkey, and when the US stops writing blank checks for Israel and looks to the Middle East with Turkey not just in mind, but on board.
Passport, FP’s flagship blog, brings you news and hidden angles on the biggest stories of the day, as well as insights and under-the-radar gems from around the world.
Read More
May/June 2013
-
Profile
-
FP Power Map
-
Think Again
Follow us on Twitter | Visit us on Facebook | Follow us on RSS | Subscribe to Foreign Policy
About FP | Meet the Staff | Foreign Editions | Reprint Permissions | Advertising | Writers’ Guidelines | Press Room | Work at FP
Services:Subscription Services | Academic Program | FP Archive | Reprint Permissions | FP Reports and Merchandise | Special Reports | Buy Back Issues
Privacy Policy | Disclaimer | Contact Us
11 DUPONT CIRCLE NW, SUITE 600 | WASHINGTON, DC 20036 | Phone: 202-728-7300 | Fax: 202-728-7342
FOREIGN POLICY is published by the FP Group, a division of The Washington Post Company
All contents ©2013 The Foreign Policy Group, LLC. All rights reserved.
(4)
HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE