I'll get to the main point in a little bit, but bear with me for a second ... A series of recent news stories has deeply damaged the Obama administration's case for continued patience with U.S.-led counterinsurgency campaign, which has shown little discernable progress despite the best efforts tens of thousands of additional American troops and an all-star lineup of top military officers.

First, let's talk about Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president. Remember the chatter earlier this year about how he'd gone crazy, threatening to join the Taliban and all that? That discussion died down a little after Karzai checked all the right boxes during his May visit to Washington.

Then came the "peace jirga" -- after which Karzai abruptly fired his intelligence and interior ministers, reputed to be two of the most competent members of his cabinet (technically, they resigned). The intelligence minister, Amrullah Saleh, told his side of the story Friday in a jaw-dropping interview with the Times. According to Saleh, Karzai no longer believes the West can win the war and is looking to cast his lot with Pakistan and the Taliban; an unnamed source told the paper that Karzai had suggested that the Americans had carried out a rocket attack on the peace jirga. Karzai has apparently also asked the United Nations to remove Mullah Omar from a key U.N. blacklist.

Next came revelations that Pakistan's powerful military intelligence agency, the ISI, is still deeply involved with the Afghan Taliban (yeah, blow me over with a feather) despite heated denials to the contrary.

Meanwhile, the drive for Kandahar looks to be stalled in the face of questionable local support for Karzai's government, the Taliban is killing local authorities left and right, and the corruption situation has apparently gotten so bad that the U.S. intelligence community is now keeping tabs on which Afghan officials are stealing what.

In short, things don't look good for the United States ... which makes me suspicious of the timing of this attention-grabbing James Risen story in the Times, which opens with this mind-boggling lede:

The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself, according to senior American government officials."

Wow! Talk about a game changer. The story goes on to outline Afghanistan's apparently vast underground resources, which include large copper and iron reserves as well as hitherto undiscovered reserves lithium and other rare minerals.

Read a little more carefully, though, and you realize that there's less to this scoop than meets the eye. For one thing, the findings on which the story was based are online and have been since 2007, courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey. More information is available on the Afghan mining ministry's website, including a report by the British Geological Survey (and there's more here). You can also take a look at the USGS's documentation of the airborne part of the survey here, including the full set of aerial photographs.

Nowhere have I found that $1 trillion figure mentioned, which Risen suggests was generated by a Pentagon task force seeking to help the Afghan government develop its resources (looking at the chart accompanying the article, though, it appears to be a straightforward tabulation of the total reserve figures for each mineral times the current market price). According to Risen, that task force has begun prepping the mining ministry to start soliciting bids for mineral rights in the fall.

Don't get me wrong. This could be a great thing for Afghanistan, which certainly deserves a lucky break after the hell it's been through over the last three decades.

But I'm (a) skeptical of that $1 trillion figure; (b) skeptical of the timing of this story, given the bad news cycle, and (c) skeptical that Afghanistan can really figure out a way to develop these resources in a useful way. It's also worth noting, as Risen does, that it will take years to get any of this stuff out of the ground, not to mention enormous capital investment.

Moreover, before we get too excited about lithium and rare-earth metals and all that, Afghanistan could probably use some help with a much simpler resource: cement.

According to an article in the journal Industrial Minerals, "Afghanistan has the lowest cement production in the world at 2kg per capita; in neighbouring Pakistan it is 92kg per capita and in the UK it is 200kg per capita." Afghanistan's cement plants were built by a Czech company in the 1950s, and nobody's invested in them since the 1970s. Most of Afghanistan's cement is imported today, mainly from Pakistan and Iran. Apparently the mining ministry has been working to set up four new plants, but they are only expected to meet about half the country's cement needs.

Why do I mention this? One of the smartest uses of development resources is also one of the simplest: building concrete floors. Last year, a team of Berkeley researchers found that "replacing dirt floors with cement appears to be at least as effective for health as nutritional supplements and as helpful for brain development as early childhood development programs." And guess what concrete's made of? Hint: it's not lithium.

UPDATE: Missed this Wall Street Journal story earlier. Money quote:

[T]he Mines Ministry has long been considered among Afghanistan's most corrupt government departments, and Western officials have repeatedly expressed reservations about the Afghan government awarding concessions for the country's major mineral deposits, fearful that corrupt officials would hand contracts to bidders who pay the biggest bribes -- not who are best suited to actually do the work.

UPDATE2: More here.

 

SARK

8:54 AM ET

June 14, 2010

See: DRC, Sierra Leone

I have a feeling that a lot of people are going to get very excited about this. Multinationals are going to be excited at the opportunity to strip Afghanistan bare, and humanitarians on the assumption that the profits will go towards developing Afghanistan and improving the lot of its people. Obviously, this rosy outcome doesn't always occur, particularly in LDCs that are wracked by internal conflict. Fabulous mineral deposits can be as much a bane for a LDC as a boon. Ask the DRC or Sierra Leone-two countries with vast mineral wealth and also two of the poorest in the world. If I had to bet, it would be on Afghanistan following that route.

 

TFSPA

11:35 AM ET

June 14, 2010

You don't see a lot of

You don't see a lot of activity in Iraq for all it's oil reserves.

 

JPWREL

11:19 AM ET

June 14, 2010

A great reason for us to stay

A great reason for us to stay in Afghanistan forever! I am sure British, American and other NATO soldiers won’t mind being maimed or killed for lithium ore, after all that is the key must have ingredient in the batteries that run our electronic devices.

 

JAYDEE001

12:40 PM ET

June 14, 2010

This is not news

The US has known about the mineral wealth of Afghanistan since at least 2007:

'Just visit the public web site of the U.S. Geological Survey and read the press release "Significant Potential for Undiscovered Resources in Afghanistan Released: 11/13/2007 10:00:00 AM" and you will find the following: "Afghanistan has significant amounts of undiscovered non-fuel mineral resources according to the U.S. Geological Survey's 2007 assessment . . . Estimates for copper and iron ore resources were found to have the most potential for extraction in Afghanistan. Scientists also found indications of abundant deposits of colored stones and gemstones, including emerald, ruby, sapphire, garnet, lapis, kunzite, spinel, tourmaline and peridot. Other examples of mineral resources available for extraction in Afghanistan include gold, mercury, sulfur, chromite, talc-magnesite, potash, graphite and sand and gravel."' (from Paul Jay, Editor of The Real News Network) June 14, 2010

This 'news' is nothing more than another attempt by some war-backers and the US Military leadership to try to posit another justification for the US to remain involved in a fruitless and futile war in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

 

KMANSFIELD

8:11 AM ET

June 16, 2010

Nothing like breaking a story 3 years after everyone else knew.

You're right, and no one needs to be worrying about american companies jumping on the bandwagon.
They've been holding auctions for mineral rights for a long time. The WTO and the World Bank have been offering loans for exploitation. Last year, American based multinationals were all pissed off because they weren't winning the contracts. The minerals management Karzai appointee must have been taking bribes.. China keeps winning! There was damn it all to hell and foot stomping all around. They even expressed themselves via the washington post.
Americans have been paying for the for the war, so they thought they were entitled. And after all, USAID is putting in the infrastructure to get these riches out. This Story at least 3 years old. Why else do the democrats "believe in this war"? plunder. same as republicans.

Just because Risen was living in la la land of bubbledom. He's pissed off at the cheeto eating pj wearers... he should look inward and ask why.. me thinks he's projecting.

 

OUTSPOKING

1:06 PM ET

June 14, 2010

credit where credit's due

You might change the words "after the the hell it's been through over the last three decades" so it says "after the hell it's put itself through over the past 3 decades". Some people love to pretend that Afghans are nothing but victims, but I see a large degree of self-determination responsible for a lot of their problems. Many of them are extremely tribal, extremely xenophobic, extremely ignorant and extremely narrow-minded. Not all of them, but many. They would be fighting no matter what other countries came to visit.

 

SARK

7:02 PM ET

June 14, 2010

Imagine that

How narrow-minded of them to be annoyed by foreign armies occupying their land. Especially when they're as benevolent as our military.

 

KMANSFIELD

8:31 AM ET

June 16, 2010

So it all the Afghans fault?

"Many of them are extremely tribal, extremely xenophobic, extremely ignorant and extremely narrow-minded. "

Project much?

They should welcome us with open arms.... climb right on in to the caravan of death... Commander Dostum will help you with your luggage..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dasht-i-Leili_massacre

 

MALICEIT

5:22 PM ET

June 14, 2010

RE:

...and after unsuccessful war in Afghanistan America jump their corporation to exploit the Afghanistan.... i think not.

 

CHRISTOPHERCARR

8:27 PM ET

June 14, 2010

A Tongue-in-cheek take on it

There is apparently a concrete shortage in Afghanistan and a solid case that widespread construction of concrete floors offers the the most bang for Afghanistan's buck in terms of development; there's a well-documented concrete surplus in Japan, the U.S. government kind of owes the Japanese government one after punting on the relocation of Futenma Air Base, and Japan's exports are destined to take a hit once U.S.-China relations begin to warm again.

I'm aware there are no beaches in Afghanistan, so the tetrapod-producing sector of the Japanese concrete pork economy won't make any dents (unless they can somehow create a line of tetrapods designed to protect the dessert from erosion.) Japan could even send Tadao Ando to Afghanistan, to fill that country also with tasteless, hulking, concrete monoliths.

http://www.theinductive.com/christopher-carr/2010/6/14/afghanistan-id-like-you-to-meet-japan.html

 

LT COL SARFRAZ HUSSAIN

7:48 AM ET

June 15, 2010

USA in Afghanistan

1. History of Afghanistan proves beyond an iota of doubt that NO foreign power, however strong it might have been, ever succeeded to master the Afghans. British empire, USSR and now USA know it very well.
2. NATO forces currently employed in Afghanistan are destined to suffer defeat like their predecessors.
3. Afghans will give their life if you are there in Afghanistan as their guest but would take your life if you try to capture them or their land.
4. There is a safe and honourable way out for USA and NATO from the crucible of Afghanistan. If any one in USA is interested to know it, may contact at paksec@live.com

 

FRANKSMUSINGS

10:14 AM ET

June 15, 2010

Old News

The news about Afghan mineral wealth is a clumsy attempt by the
U.S.Pentagon to justify additional military activity in Afghanistan. It's
been known for years that there are a lot of mineral deposits in
Afghanistan, but the country has never been politically stable enough, for
thousands of years, to allow the investment to be made there that is needed
to develop those deposits. That will not change anytime soon.

 

ASHOK2718

6:32 PM ET

June 15, 2010

Orange-----------Also look at

the results of Pentagon in Germany, Japan and South Korea. Don't blame PMS for Mullah's arrogance. Though I agree with you that this time they won't be able to change anything and will have to leave behind these people just as they found them. Democracy or not --------- Their is zero hope for their reformation.

 

NICHOLAS WIBBERLEY

6:42 PM ET

June 15, 2010

Out is the only way out.

US military adventures were already becoming surreal when Obama took office but now they have gone all the way and these latest Afghan mineral “revelations” give off the distinct odour of desperation. I am sorry for the President, but with the best will in the world not even he can unravel cobwebs.

Doom laden scenarios of Taliban taking over Pakistan and nuking the US homeland are simply not credible. If the US leaves the area, they will all be at each others throats for a while and then things will settle down to the volatile, occasionally bloody, medieval muddle it ever was for the simple reason that the Afghans prefer it that way, or at any rate prefer it to what is on offer now.

 

ANDREAMARIANA

10:54 PM ET

June 15, 2010

News Flash!

Thieves.

 

QPZMGR

10:28 PM ET

June 18, 2010

reason for

reason for us to stay in Afghanistan forever! I am sure British, American and other NATO soldiers won’t mind replica omega being maimed or killed for lithium ore, after all that is the key must have ingredient in the batteries that run our electronic devices.

 

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