Pacific islands are actually growing

Posted By Brian Fung Thursday, June 3, 2010 - 10:31 AM Share

When the Maldives staged an underwater cabinet meeting last year to highlight the country's vulnerability to sea-level rise, climate change activists looked on with a mixture of hope that the stunt would spur others to action and fear that an entire country might simply disappear beneath the waves.

If you thought rising tides spelled certain doom for islanders across the globe, though, think again. A new study by the University of Auckland finds that over the course of 60 years, 80 percent of tracked Pacific islands actually stayed the same size — or even grew — despite an average annual sea-level rise of two millimeters. Out of the 27 islands the researchers examined, only four showed signs of shrinkage. How have these islands adapted to sea-level changes? With coral:

Unlike the sandbars of the eastern US coast, low-lying Pacific islands are made of coral debris. This is eroded from the reefs that typically circle the islands and pushed up onto the islands by winds, waves and currents. Because the corals are alive, they provide a continuous supply of material. [...]

Kench says that while the 27 islands in his study are just a small portion of the thousands of low-lying Pacific islands, it shows that they are naturally resilient to rising sea levels. "It has been thought that as the sea level goes up, islands will sit there and drown," he says. "But they won't. The sea level will go up and the island will start responding."

The findings probably offer little comfort to Pacific islanders themselves; the New Zealand-based study acknowledges that accelerated sea-level rise could well overwhelm the islands' natural capacity to adapt. All the same, it's nice to think that Fiji might still be around when I hit retirement age.

350.org / http://www.flickr.com/photos/350org/4034921059/

 
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HOLLAR01

12:16 PM ET

June 3, 2010

But can that trend continue?

If only this meant that we don't have to worry about entire nations slipping beneathe the waves anymore! Unfortunately, there is evidence that we should not be complacent about this. Of the accelerating amount of carbon emissions being pumped into the atmostphere, about 50% of it is being captured by the oceans. A chemical reaction of the increased carbon with elements in the seawater is causing the oceans to become more acidic, and that acidity is killing coral reefs. So, we should not be so sanguine as to expect that what has worked to preserve these islands over the past 60 years of slow sea level rise will also work in the forthcoming 60 years. We should also be aware that there is an increasing threat that sea level rise will be much faster than the 2 mm per year.

http://climatesecurity.blogspot.com/2010/06/pacifc-islands-growing-but-can-that.html

 

DABELKOG

1:09 PM ET

June 3, 2010

bit more complex

If we only look at one dimension of climate impacts (sea level rise) to judge the habitability of small island states, we miss the picture. Unfortunately too often the climate debates come down to that.

Making the story much more dynamic are some other considerations. What does increased frequency or intensity of extreme weather events mean for the limited fresh water supplies on small island states? It is going to be a lack of fresh water that bites sooner than too much salt water or at minimum they will be intertwined in ways that makes supporting growing populations more and more difficult.

Aah, growing populations, another consideration. The communities aren't static in terms of population and in fact are in some cases experiencing relatively high population growth rates. Migration has been a rational and established adaptation strategy, to poverty, to crowding, and to climate induced changes. They are both pulled and pushed off the island, again, making the sea level rise a relevant factor but only one in the decisions for individuals and for governments in how to respond.

So these are all considerations that undercut the juiciness of the research even before you get to the kicker in the story about how accelerating sea level rise may overwhelm natural adaptive capacities which of course is the point - things are changing, not static.

 

BLACKADDER60

5:45 AM ET

June 5, 2010

Dont worry

Global warming global schwarming.
Its just a bunch of hype from imposters trying to cash in on peoples ignorance and gullibility.

Iceages have come and gone and the world and its echo system have survived.

The current end of the last iceage is no different except theres a lot of hominids around to try to make hay of this natural fact.

 

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