Right at this second, thank G-d, there are whole teams of people watching North Korea's every move. Blessings to them. The DPRK military personnel who ordered this attack are trying to manipulate international conditions in their favour. Do not underestimate the power of nationalism even in a starving population. Stalin was able to rouse and prepare the peasants quite easily with a bit of Eisensteinian "Alexander Nevsky" propaganda years before Barbarossa. The NK watchers should be trying to gauge the public mood of the North. They DPRK leadership clique have misinterpreted the will and intelligence of their southern neighbours on many occasions however. Sometimes restraint is the hallmark of true strength. The South Koreans are incredibly resourceful, pragmatic and hard working. They have been dealing with brother next door for sixty years. The attack on the warship was highly significant however.

There is a way to effect change in the North. China has a big part to play. If the North Korean leaders feel they have no way out things may escalate. The “Us versus Them” dynamic is ingratiated into the populace. Many North Koreans did fight valiantly against the Japanese in the 1930’s and 40’s and such pride must be factored in to all deliberations. They do watch the geo-political landscape and try and calibrate their decisions hence. Unfortunately their instruments and methodology are in need of repair. (I wonder what their Axis-of-Evil Twin Iran thinks about this attack on an ally of the USA ?)A desperate man should not be painted into a corner. The psychology of the North is complex. Groupthink can be changed if an understanding of the power and focus dynamics is attained. In this interconnected world things can change pretty quickly. More attention must be paid to the Peninsula and a long-term game plan worked out for all the players. The current situation is unsustainable. Great crisis can lead to great opportunity.

North Korea has some very smart engineers. Abdul Qadir Khan and his underlings met with many of them. Do not underestimate the North Koreans. In WWII many British and Australians thought the Japanese were inferior, slanty eyed Asian peasants with no fighting skill or strategic nous whatsoever. Blind love of a leader and empire can induce super-dangerous fanaticism. An autonomous population is far less likely to be swayed by a malevolent dictator. On a "Degree of Autonomy" rating the North Korean population would be at the bottom of the global ladder. The place makes Cuba look like a free-speech paradise. If a war breaks out on the Peninsula the carnage on both "sides" will be horrific. Sth.Korea and its allies will win, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory. Everything must be done to avoid a conflict, but if push comes to shove and the North launches artillery attacks a military response will be absolutely justified. One must stand up to people that want to hurt you.

Naiive isolationism will not work in 2010. I resolved this question ten years ago. The level of interconnectedness of the world today is self-evident. How would you solve the pirate problem off Somalia ? How about air-traffic control ? Natural disasters like the tsunami and early warning systems ? Trade ? Terrorism which is not national ? Refugees ? etc, etc. This topic is fit for another place. We should stay on topic, or else these threads end up looking like a dog's breakfast. If the Peninsula blows up the whole world will be affected, mark my words...

That border is incredibly tense. I remember reading about the 1976 Axe Murder Incident. The soldiers there are under enormous stress. One of my favourite Korean movies, out of eight I have seen, is "The Guard Post". The border problem is etched very deeply on the psyche of population. (My favourite movie from that land is 2003's "Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter and Spring". Absolutely beautiful ! Even the memory of the film gives me hope for the region.)

The Peninsula will be reunited in the coming years and decades. The Korean War was a complete waste of time and energy. A proud and ancient culture was besieged by competing geo-political game players and the result was a disastrous split. The mindset of the North Koreans is interesting. Many Koreans from the North fought valiantly against the invading Japanese circa WWII. In an interesting footnote, last year the North played the South is a world cup qualifier. At the end of the game all the players shook hands. The look on their faces was one of quiet hope and friendliness layered with years of distrust. Like two brothers who have been estranged from each other due to outside forces and repeated trauma. Both teams are playing again in South Africa 2010. The land is destined to be united eventually.

Prayers for Korea !

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Normal or not normal, North Korea will remain under Communist dictatorship until the rise of a Gorbachev in China. Regardless of what US and other Western governments think or say, North Korea is Beijing’s puppet and will remain so as long as China continues to be ruled by Communist Party that refuses to let the democratic winds blow on its soil.

Nixon actually strengthened the hold of Communist Party in China by embracing it to counter Soviet Union in 1972 because that led to rapid economic progress due to creation of huge export machine thanks to opening of the vast consumer market in US and Europe to cheap Chinese goods.

With US accepting China with veto power in UNSC in 1971, China can easily protect its North Korean protégé from punishing sanctions so that Kim’s regime can survive for a long time.

Americans might be getting lied to on this issue.

The corvette Cheonan was sunk by something on March 26 near Baengnyeong Island.

This island is South Korean territory but very near to North Korea. The waters further offshore are disputed.

A subsequent inquiry by the USA and half a dozen of its allies "came out saying that North Korea did it.

Part of a torpedo, the screw, visibly having been submerged at some point, a bit worn, was produced as "evidence". The inquiry said the north did it. Now, all US media are repeating this as proven fact, in line with Hillary Clinton's determined stance: she says the north did it.

But many South Koreans do not believe the north did it. They think it was sunk by friendly fire - from a US craft, probably a submarine. And they believe the sub may itself have been lost, with loss of life. If North Korea fired on an ROK ship, and during a military exercise, they ask, why did the rest of the exercise fleet neither return fire nor announce it to media?

Questions have been asked in the ROK parliament. The ROK media have now been muzzled on the issue and the major team investigating it are being sued.

Shouldn't better-informed Americans be looking a little closer?

Some background.

South Korea's ship Cheonan was a patrol boat, well-equipped with radar and sonar. ROK spokesmen say it was capable of detecting torpedoes over a mile away, with a better than 70% accuracy. There were joint US-ROK naval exercises going on that day, though it is now denied by southern spokesmen that Cheonan was taking part. The piece of water is often a place of tensions. Cheonan would (either way, taking part or not) be especially vigilant, expecting North Korea ships to be hanging round watching.

20% of South Koreans in a poll do NOT believe that North Korea did it.

More evidence, much of it from a leading South Korean television news team, KBS.

Near the site of the sunk Cheonan, another huge object was located, evidently sunk. Some said it was a US submarine, and one media outlet (Nikkan Gendai Japan) conjectured it was USS Columbia which had been in the area March 22. It would carry about 100 crew. A photo of a bit of a seeming sub was published (www.jajuminbo.net). It was located in a place suitable for hiding near the south coast of the island, where North Korea ships would not see it. It is thought the US might often station a nuclear sub in that position, where it could watch communications but not be seen.

After the incident, the US was in charge and an ROK underwater team was set to work on high priority, searching this site. One member of this team later died. This was allegedly due to time-pressure put on the team to search the sunken sub interior (he was UDT-SEAL Han Joo-ho). It is thought they might have been searching for a nuclear warhead.

Other UDT-SEAL members alleged US navy divers didn't want to do the job, so they had to, and they were made to start before the decompressors arrived and rush it.

The dead Korean SEAL was later given high national honours and commended for searching the Cheonan, though he had only been working at the third site. His memorial service was at the third buoy marking the unknown sunken object, not at the two Cheonan sites (two separated halves of the corvette). High US officials attended commemorations for him, and payments were made to relatives.

An object like a corpse, from the third buoy site, was taken away not by an ROK helicopter but by an American military helicopter (April 7 on KBS television).

Disparities in the two side by side searches, one for survivors from the Cheonan and the other for those from the presumed submarine at the third buoy, indicate higher priority had been given to the third buoy search. The USA commands the ROK forces.

And so it goes on.

The military exercise, Foal Eagle, was at first reported near Baengyeong Island and later reported 100 miles away, two or three hours by fast ship. It was extended from a day to some weeks.

Wider background.

South Korea is on the eve of elections. There are known to be at least 120 underwater mines in that area, installed to deter North Korea by the South in the 1970s. The US is trying to get out of there by 2012, after sixty years of military presence. Some lobbies would like the US to remain there and to station nuclear warships in those waters. The South Korean right would like an attack on North Korea, preferably before the USA leaves. There is the matter of increasing or diminishing the influence of neighboring state China on the peninsula. Ditto Japan, a near neighbor just across the Sea of Japan.

The brave ROK television team was censured, sued and made to remove the footage from its site. Official pressure stopped other Korean media from discussing it.

All the evidence is moving now, almost as one watches. And the US Navy says Columbia returned to base in Hawaii on May 3rd.

For most of these facts I am indebted to www.tanakanews.com, specfically a May 7 article by Tanaka Sakai of Japan.

Look it up. Maybe the official line is true. I don't know. But the evidence is very persuasive.

At least one prominent American journalist in the region believes this is a set-up.