Wednesday, April 14, 2010 - 7:37 PM

So what are we to make of the allegation that Syria is moving, or has moved, Scud missiles, or parts of Scud missiles, into Hezbollah country in Lebanon -- even as the Obama administration tries to send a U.S ambassador back to Damascus for the first time in five years?
On the one hand, it's a little baffling. Why would Syria risk an Israeli strike by taking such a provocative step? With an assist from U.S spy satellites, Israeli jets could easily take out the missiles -- they've already proven their ability to evade Syrian radar with the 2007 raid on an early-stage nuclear plant near the Euphrates River. And the international opprobrium that would result from proof of such a weapons transfer to a terrorist organization would be severe.
Despite all the Syrian bravado about Hezbollah's strong showing against Israel in the 2006 Lebanon war, surely Bashar al-Assad knows that his creaking Soviet weaponry would fare badly in any conflagration -- and that his presidential suite is well within the range of Israel's F-15s. For all the figures you read in the press about the size of Syria's military and its vast arsenal of tanks, the country is essentially a tin-pot dictatorship with little ability to project power beyond Lebanon, where for decades it has dominated its smaller neighbor's domestic affairs.
If you think in regional terms, the (alleged) move makes marginally more sense. Iran, Syria's ally and patron, is looking to show the West that any strike on its nuclear facilities would be extremely costly for the United States and its allies. With pressure escalating, it's not hard to imagine that the powers that be in Iran leaned on Bashar to lend a helping hand next door. (Syria expert Andrew Tabler offers some other plausible motives here.)
The insane thing about all this is that Syria would be much better off by joining the pro-Western camp. It could get the Golan Heights back, get the sanctions lifted, and attract foreign assistance and investment -- while fending off pressure to open its deeply authoritarian system, just as Egypt has. It could reap billions in tourism revenue, thanks to its incredible archaeological and cultural riches. And it could finally bury the hatchet with other Arab states, which have long been frustrated by Syria's close ties to Iran, its support for militant groups, its meddling in Lebanon, and its intransigence on all things Israel.
But dictatorships are strange animals; they often make poor decisions for reasons that are inscrutable to all but the most informed observers.
Why do you think he would want the Golan Heights?
It is full of Druze who don't particularly like Assad or his government, and who have been enjoying a Western lifestyle as Israeli permanent residents since 1967. Will those Druze happily go back to cowing and scraping before the Syrian secret police if the Golan is returned? Probably not. Instead, Assad would probably have to allow some degree of autonomy to the area, the same as the Chinese have had to do with Hong Kong, in recognition of the fact that people arent so willing to be pushed around after they've experienced an alternative.
I am not sure that the author understands Syria. It is a powder keg that is prevented from exploding only by the assiduous endeavours of the regime. Assad is far more concerned with keeping Sunni grievances inside his country in check than with any attack from Israel. What could Israel do anyway? Bomb the country for two or three weeks perhaps, but they could hardly invade the place. As it is, Israel already forcibly governs far too many Arabs for its own good.
Intresting that the slant of this commentary seems to hold Egypt up as goal to be strived for. As someone who has lived in Egypt for a period of time I can say I have never seen a more oppresive tyranical dictatorship in all my travels. I guess Syria would be accepted if it was a western dictatorship according to the author, but this sort of thinking is precisley why we are losing the middle east.
Also Egypt is no ace in the hole either. It is well known that if Old Hosni kicks the bucket the whole egyptian powder keg could blow sky high. Decades worth of oppression is just waiting under the surface for the right time.
Is Israel Facing War with Syria and Hizbullah?
Concerns about Israeli hostilities with Hizbullah are nothing new, but based on recent pronouncements from Syria, if the situation degenerates, fighting could take on a regional dimension not seen since 1973.
To read a full report on the situation between Israel, Syria and Hizbullah follow this link:
http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DRIT=1&DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=111&FID=283&PID=0&IID=3647&TTL=Is_Israel_Facing_War_with_Hizbullah_and_Syria?
We have to take domestic politics into account as well. Actors do not always act out of logical analysis of the rest of the world, they also have to take into account the politics of the masses and the elites.
Oh no! Syria is arming Hamas.
Well, we are arming Israel.
Looks sane to me.
Our arms exports to Israel are forbidden under the arms export control act.
The Dumbest country in the West:
The US for prostrating itself at the feet of Israel, just because some congressmen are in AIPAC's pocket
I suppose you'd rather have the US prostrating itself at the feet of terrorists.
I also don't suppose it occured to you that Congressmen who have been to the Mid East and know more about the situation than you do could have an honest opinion different than your own prejudices?
Don’t forget that “Hezbollah's strong showing against Israel in the 2006 Lebanon war” consisted of half of Hezbollah’s fighters dying in combat and the other half running from the battlefield. Should Hezbollah start a second war with Israel, I doubt that this time the Israelis will hold back -- not with longer range missiles in the Hezbollah arsenal. And I do not think it likely that the Obama administration would object too strongly to taking out an Iranian ally.
As for Syria, they are playing second banana to the Iranians in Lebanon and the Mid East. They had a chance of breaking free and being masters of their own fate by simply entering into honest talks with Israel. They choose to remain Iran’s stooges instead.
I recall the Bush Administration, along with Britain and the EU running interference so Israel could do whatever it wanted for as long as it wanted. But after 35 days, having achieved absolutely none of their objectives, all Israel wanted was a ceasefire. If all of Hezbollah's fighters were dead or retreating, why do you think that is? Could it be because the Israelis lost some 45 KIA in the last two days? Or maybe because the ghosts of Hezbollah's "dead" fighters somehow fired more missiles on the last day than any other?
Come on. Israel is accusing someone of something and you take it as true? I would expext it from Fox News or Washington Post or other dumb news outlets, but Foreign Policy? You're supposed to know better.
Even though I usually maintain a policy of not responding to petty, ignorant journalism, the title of your post, “The dumbest country in the Middle East,” intrigued me and so I thought I would make an exception. It made me question, how can the “dumbest country” outmaneuver the strongest country in the world, and its superpower, along with the numerous Western and other countries that followed in its footsteps and that tried to isolate it? How can the superpower, during its previous administration, work so diligently on isolating “the dumbest country”, yet end up being isolated itself (former Bush-official and current Obama-appointee, Assistant Secretary of State Jeffery Feltman: "consequently, the United States, not Syria, seems to be isolated"; Senators John Kerry and Chuck Hagel in a 2008 op-ed: "our policy of non-engagement has isolated us more than the Syrians.")? how can the “dumbest country” face all these economic sanctions imposed by the superpower, while simultaneously achieving some of the highest economic growth figures in the region and being considered one of the top ‘frontier markets’?
It also made me question, how can an editor of a prestigious publication reach such an ‘enlightened’ conclusion, and dub another country with such distasteful, malicious, and nescient names, while by all accounts there has been no evidence of such weapons transfer –as stated by American officials (see articles in NY Times, Washington Post, and others). It finally occurred to me that while Mr. Blake Hounshell failed to discover the ‘dumbest country in the Middle East,’ I succeeded in discovering the dumbest reporting in the city.
Ahmed Salkini | Spokesman | Embassy of Syria, Washington
Even though I usually maintain a policy of not responding to petty, ignorant journalism, the title of your post, “The dumbest country in the Middle East,” intrigued me and so I thought I would make an exception. It made me question, how can the “dumbest country” outmaneuver the strongest country in the world, and its superpower, along with the numerous Western and other countries that followed in its footsteps and that tried to isolate it? How can the superpower, during its previous administration, work so diligently on isolating “the dumbest country”, yet end up being isolated itself (former Bush-official and current Obama-appointee, Assistant Secretary of State Jeffery Feltman: "consequently, the United States, not Syria, seems to be isolated"; Senators John Kerry and Chuck Hagel in a 2008 op-ed: "our policy of non-engagement has isolated us more than the Syrians.")? how can the “dumbest country” face all these economic sanctions imposed by the superpower, while simultaneously achieving some of the highest economic growth figures in the region and being considered one of the top ‘frontier markets’?
It also made me question, how can an editor of a prestigious publication reach such an ‘enlightened’ conclusion, and dub another country with such distasteful, malicious, and nescient names, while by all accounts there has been no evidence of such weapons transfer –as stated by American officials (see articles in NY Times, Washington Post, and others). It finally occurred to me that while Mr. Blake Hounshell failed to discover the ‘dumbest country in the Middle East,’ I succeeded in discovering the dumbest reporting in the city.
Ahmed Salkini | Spokesman | Embassy of Syria, Washington
As a Syrian American who is an avid reader of FP, and who also works at a prestigious Washington, DC think tank, I am bewildered at the title and unsubstantiated nature of your blog post. Not only is your
headline unacceptable by any journalistic standards, it's simply untrue. You may argue that because this is a blog you are entitled to your opinion in both title and content. However, because you carry a prestigious name known for its journalistic excellence, you also carry the responsibility to convey accurate information to your readers, even in a blog.
So Mr. Houshell has dropped the bombshell and finally used his collective intelligence, complemented with the intelligence of Mr. Andrew Tabler to finally call Syria the “dumbest country in the Middle East.”
It must have taken quite a bit of research and analysis to reach such a startling conclusion; and it appears that such a research has stretched Mr. Houshell intelligence all the way to Tel Aviv.
So let me get this straight: Syria is dumb because it is essentially a “tin-pot dictatorship” that can be taken out by a couple of Israeli jets, yet it is playing war with Israel? One is led to believe, by reading the incredibly “intelligent” analysis of Mr. Houshell that Syria and Syrians owe their existence to the generosity of the Israeli Air Force for not taking them out.
Or is it that Syria is dumb not to fall in the camp of AIPAC and surrender its soul to the American Enterprise Institute's genius minds of peace and tranquility?
I would have laughed so hard at such an “intelligent” argument had it not been so recklessly dangerous and so bloody evil. And coming under the heading banner of Foreign Policy is a disgrace to such a respectable name tag.
I was waiting for Mr. Houshell’s to extend his dumb verdict even further to identify some really stupid acts in the Middle East. Nope, he fell asleep before doing so. So let me help out a little, as it appears that Mr. Houshell’s analysis is a bit constipated: The invasion and occupation of the sovereign country of Iraq was dumb. Israel’s repeated invasions of Lebanon are dumb (those invasions must win the Oscar for dumb and dumberer). Israel’s continued illegal occupation of the Golan Heights is dumb. Israel’s bloody war on civilian Gaza was dumb. And continuously drinking from the cocktail brewed by Washington’s armchair right-wing ideologues is even dumber.
Syria, funny enough, is not dumb. Its economy grew. Its people rallied together to keep the country whole and safe. It hosted millions of Iraqi refugees and offered them food, shelter, and access to education, employment, and health care. Its arts, literature, and cultural events are bursting with talent everywhere. No need to further overtax anyone’s intelligence, but any rational person looking at Syria today would arrive at the same conclusion: Syria was in fact no dumb at all. What it did was just plain brilliant.
And we all know by now who turned out to be the real dumb ass in the Middle East. We know who made a fool of himself (you-are-doing-a-heck-a-of-job-Brownie) and his administration. (That dumb ass even nominated a shocked and speechless Harriett Myers to the Supreme Court! Now if that wasn't dumb, I am not sure what is).
Would someone please pinch Mr. Houshell to wake him up so can stop dreaming about the hapless, sorry, and genuinely dumb days of Bush and his Dick? A new dawn has arrived, indeed.
I really find it extremely appalling to see a magazine of the caliber of FP going down to the level of such a poor political analysis.
Mr Hounshell has lost any credibility from the moment he chose the title for his article ...by saying that Syria is "the Dumbest Country in the Middle East" , the whole article turned into a personal statement and not even near to what is called professional journalism.
Mr Hounshell you have to know that Syria is simply not a Charity and Syrian people are very proud of their culture and nation ...so whether you agree or disagree with Syrian policies in the region or the so called "Syrian behaviour"...... insulting 22 million Syrians by calling their country the Dumbest ...... was definitly the most insensitive and unprofessional thing to do.
i wish that you can educate yourself more about syrian affairs so you can write a worthy reading and more balanced article in the future.
an apology for Syrian people would be a good start for you,... and then you can think about writing an article on how can America and people like you help Syria becoming more Constructive in the Middle East on the basis of Mutual respect and common interest and not on the basis of might makes right.
Jihad Makdissi
Spokesman of the Syrian Embassy in London
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