Being on the e-mail list of the spokesperson for the Nigerian rebel group the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), I often have the non-pleasure of waking up to news of the group's grisley attacks. This morning around 11 a.m. Nigeria time, the group issued a warning: We are about to detonate car bombs outside an ongoing conference on an amnesty deal that was supposed to end the conflict in the region. Thirty minutes later, the bombs went off. The episode is playing out as a direct assault on the peace conference. I agree with that -- but not in the way that it is being reported.
What most stories are failing to mention is that MEND explained their actions as a direct response to the statement of a government in the region, who was quoted in a local newspaper denying MEND's existence, and claiming that the organization was little more than a "media creation." He continues, "Tell me who is MEND and I will tell you that there is nothing like MEND existing as of today.
In its bomb threat, MEND explains that this attack was pretty much intended to prove the governor wrong: "Thinking of no better way to announce our continued presence in the Niger Delta to [the governor,] Mr Uduaghan, operatives of MEND today March 15, 2010, successfully breached the security at the Delta state government house in Warri and planted three explosive devices in and around this compound."
Why do such grievances matter? Well, because I do think the attack was probably orchestrated as a personal vendetta against the governor who denied the group's existence (seem petty? welcome to rebel politics). More importantly, I think the attack signals that MEND is pretty darn scared that the amnesty is going to fall apart, and they are hedging their bets to make sure that they still have their "alternative lifestyle" of fighting and kidnapping awaiting them when it does.
(After the country's President Umaru Yar'Adua disappeared late last year for failing health, the amnesty agreement he signed with the rebels has fallen far behind. Yar'Adua's acting replacement, Goodluck Jonathan, a man from the Niger Delta region, was supposed to see things through. But he's proved political feeble and certainly preoccupied with other matters -- like simply remaining politically alive.)
In short, here's the message that today's bombing sends to Nigeria: Hey everyone, we're still around. And if the Nigerian government in limbo doesn't fix itself pretty darn soon, the Niger Delta won't be the only place where mayhem is the only rule of law.
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