The most interesting, and least verifiable theory I've seen about the capture of Taliban leader Mullah Baradar comes via B. Raman, a former top analyst with Indian intelligence. Perhaps not surprisingly, Raman think Pakistan is up to no good, and dings U.S. South Asia hand Bruce Riedel for describing Baradar's arrest as a sign of a "sea change in Pakistani behavior":

4. These projections have not been borne out by reports from well-informed police sources in Karachi, which describe these arrests as a manoeuvre by the ISI to discard the well-identified leaders of the Afghan Taliban and usher in a new leadership consisting of well-motivated and well-trained recruits of recent vintage, who have not yet come to the notice of the US agencies.

5. They say that the leaders arrested since January-end in Karachi and other parts of Pakistan no longer constituted the command and control of the Afghan Taliban and that is why their arrests have not yet had any impact on the operations of the Afghan Taliban on the ground----either in the Helmand province or elsewhere. They say that the Taliban forces presently resisting the US-led offensive in the Helmand province are led by a new crop of leaders devoted to Mulla Mohammad Omar, the Amir of the Afghan Taliban, but capable of operating independently without the need for directions from a central command and control.

We'll see...

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