All the chatter online is about the Cheney-Biden Sunday talkshow dustup, which was heavy on drama and light on news.

But the real story today is what the U.S. national security advisor, Gen.  James L. Jones, said:

“We are about to add to that regime’s difficulties, by engineering, participating in very tough sanctions,” Jones said in an interview on “Fox News Sunday.” Combined with internal dissent, the sanctions “could trigger regime change,” he said.

First, let's get one thing straight: There will be no tough sanctions. As FP's Colum Lynch has reported, China doesn't even have a go-to Iran hand right now, and has shown little interest in damaging relations with a country that supplies 11 percent of its oil imports. Beijing will see to it that whatever sanctions do pass the U.N. Security Council are toothless, as the Chinese have done on all previous occasions. They'll give just enough to allow the Obama administration to say it passed something, while wringing concessions out of Washington that we may never know about.

Second, whatever fresh U.N. sanctions do pass will not "trigger regime change," and I hope the White House doesn't really believe that. Yes, Iran's economy has real problems, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is being criticized for them. There's a danger, though, that new sanctions will only allow him to blame his screwups on the West without forcing his government to cry uncle on the nuclear issue. After all, we're talking about a regime whose founding ideology is built on isolation in the world and standing up to the "global arrogance." Sanctions, for Iran's hard-line leaders, are the diplomatic equivalent of throwing Br'er Rabbit in the briar patch.

The most optimistic scenario that I can come up with, realistically speaking, is that there's going to be a lot going on behind the scenes -- the kind of economic warfare waged by the Treasury Department's Stuart Levey, for instance, will scare off a good number of potential investors in Iran's overt economy. Some European countries, like France, will do their part. And meanwhile, continued sabotage operations (much of it through doing things like setting up dummy companies to sell Iran faulty nuclear-related equipment) will keep Iran's scientists from making any major breakthroughs. Hopefully, oil prices won't climb too high and over time the opposition will be able to build in strength. But regime change is a long-term hope, not a plan.

UPDATE: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's rhetoric has shifted, too. Speaking in Doha, Qatar, she said Iran is "moving towards a military dictatorship" as the Revolutionary Guards assume ever more power. She's right, by the way. But I don't think sanctions will work, and Clinton is about to get an earful from Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah about the flailing Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Stay tuned.

EXPLORE:IRAN
 

ZATHRAS

12:38 PM ET

February 15, 2010

Clinton's Point....

...., a shrewd one it seems to me, is that a kind of regime change is already happening in Iran. The Islamic Republic is gradually turning into the Revolutionary Guard Republic.

The end of that road could be something like Pakistan, in which the security services dominate the state and stake permanent claim to a large share of the state's resources to support themselves. The analogy is not exact for many reasons, but Pakistan, too, began as a state defined by the Islamic faith of the majority of its people.

Exploiting unease within Iran, including among Iran's Shiite clergy, about the clergy's loss of influence relative to the Revolutionary Guard seems a prudent step for the United States to take. I'm not clear, though, whether it is part of an Obama administration strategy or merely something that someone stuck into Sec. Clinton's talking points for one televised interview. Certainly Gen. Jones's airy remarks about "tough sanctions" that could "trigger regime chance" make it sound as if some people on Obama's team are still looking for an easy way out of an Iran problem that honest analysis suggests will be with us for years.

 

TYRTAIOS

3:29 PM ET

February 15, 2010

A Differant Approach

I think you'll see a different approach back-channel than the usual up front rhetoric this time around.

You are aware that Iran's oil production has been declining about 10% per year for some time? The major reason is due mostly to the government's diverting money from exploration and development - spending even vaster amounts on weapons programs, both conventional and nuclear.

Many have always believed that with those declining revenues, directing our sanctions in that direction would increase internal political unrest due to the rampant poverty in a country with the second largest oil reserves on the globe, and would thereby bring about regime change if left alone. That unfortunately doesn't seem to be the case - nor does it?

Possibly if left alone it might - the problem being the time it would take as opposed to Tehran coming on line with a nuclear weapon.

In addition to freezing assets of the Revolutionary Guards, I would also expect us to put pressure on international energy companies from investing in Iranian energy infrastructure, capitalizing on the already uneasiness by many of them to do so, primarily due to their concern over any future Israeli military response.

I would expect scheme, as I describe, might bring Tehran to the bargaining table with a more conciliatory tone, but doubt any social upheaval would occur, something I further think Obama’s national security team finally recognizes.

 

SABABA03

4:02 PM ET

February 15, 2010

Yes, It is Time for regime change

If by now people don't realize that, a despotic regime which oppresses, kills, and limit the freedom of expression among its own people. is dengreous to society as a whole, and to Iran's own neighbors in particulary. Nothing else, except regime change will bring about stability and rational to that all important region to the economy of the world.

This regime is guided, NOT by contemporary and advance knowledge. Rather, by hope to return of an man (Mahdi), whom in the 12th century, went out to get some Hashish, and lost his way back.

The Islamic revolution of Khomeini had failed right from its inception. Time for it to go - never come back.

It is time to set free the poor and brave Iranian people, whom are the real victim here. We will have peace and stability in the regime only after the region goes, and the transformation from feudalistic, fundamentalist and military dictatorship to representative governments, elected by the people, for the people takes place.

 

DUTCH JUSTICE

8:30 PM ET

February 15, 2010

Really...

Would you not agree that to affect regime change in Iran, NATO must pursue covert action against the Iranian regime?
Sending in combat troops and aerial forces would not only hurt the Wests image further, but it would also make the political climates in the NATO countries unsustainable.

As in '53, the Shah was installed, almost by covert means exclusively. The key to sustainable regime change in a light footprint. This can only be attained by intelligence services and long term, *controllable* assets in the target country.

I mean you no disrespect, but save the "democracy" and "stability" talk for your average left or right wing blogs, it is my opinion that FP comment threads should be reserved for cold discussion, analyses. Although some may disagree with me.

Be safe.

J.

 

SABABA03

1:41 PM ET

February 16, 2010

Duch

Every period has its own mod of operandi. back in 53, there were not elaborate means of communications as we have them today.

If one listened to latest salvo from Sec. of State Clinton, the war on regime change have already started ("Iran is governed by military dictatorship"). This is a finely tuned first step of psychological warfare. Second step, is military pressure from outside, where US and NATO forces surrounding Iran will start "military exercises" on and around Iran's borders - challenging IRG to make a move. Third step, cut off fuel supplies into Iran. forth step, encourage internal revolt.

The first step (as I see it) is, divide and conquer. Sew division between the Mullahs and the IRG, who keeps them in power. Knowing their oversize ego, and that all important "honor" system in that part of the world, these Mullahs will not standby, to be humiliated in public, and their authority over the military questioned. They will eventually try to assert their authority over the military. Hopefully (at least that is the design). IRG will then declare an emergency powers and take over the country. That is EXACTLY what the West will be waiting for to happen.

 

SMCI60652

5:45 PM ET

February 16, 2010

Give it a rest...

There is ZERO evidence of sanctions EVER contributing to regime change.

It's like beating a dead horse over and over again. And both Republicans and Democrats have to do it.

Sanctions are political tools largely for domestic audiences, used so as to appear as if you're doing something, without having to commit military resources to achieve your outcome.

Are we really STILL

 

SMCI60652

5:47 PM ET

February 16, 2010

...so backward as to think

...so backward as to think that starving the civilian population, thus making them even less resourceful, of an enemy will force them to rise up against their regime?

It's hockus pokus.

 

MCDUFF

8:14 AM ET

February 25, 2010

Does anyone else see a

Does anyone else see a connection between moves towards an isolationist, militaristic government that gains power by standing up in opposition to foreign aggressors, and years of belligerent antagonistic rhetoric from one foreign power in particular?

Nope? Nobody? Completely unrelated?

 

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