China is now Iran's top trading partner

Posted By Blake Hounshell Tuesday, February 9, 2010 - 10:36 AM Share

Still think China's going to sign on to a new round of tough sanctions against Iran? Think again. China has most likely already passed the European Union to become Iran's No. 1 trading partner, the Financial Times reports:

Official figures say the EU remains Tehran’s largest commercial partner, with trade totalling $35bn in 2008, compared with $29bn with China.

But this number disguises the fact that much of Iran’s trade with the United Arab Emirates consists of goods channelled to or from China. Majid-Reza Hariri, deputy head of the Iran-China Chamber of Commerce, said that transhipments to China accounted for more than half of Tehran’s $15bn (€10.9bn, £9.6bn) trade with the UAE.

When this is taken into account, China’s trade with Iran totals at least $36.5bn, which could be more than with the entire EU bloc. No definite conclusion is possible because it is unclear how much of Iran’s trade with Europe is channelled via the UAE.

Iran imports consumer goods and machinery from China and exports oil, gas, and petrochemicals.

Today, China depends on Iran for 11 per cent of its energy needs, according to the chamber.

Look at it this way: Would the United States support hard-hitting sanctions against Saudi Arabia, which in November supplied nearly 8 percent of U.S. oil imports?

EXPLORE:CHINA, IRAN, OIL
 
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ILYA SEROV

6:35 PM ET

February 9, 2010

Unconvincing

I find this sort of logic unconvincing. China may have substantial commercial ties with Iran: this does not however equate to its support of Iran's nuclear program (which is destabilising and if anything China is interested in stable energy supplies, not Iran's rise as a regional hegemon).

The other counterfactual here is to consider what the US would do if Saudi Arabia pursued nuclear ambitions of its own: would the US really be happy with that, simply because the Saudis are a major partner, or would the policy revert to containment of any nuclear ambitions they may have? I think the latter rather than the former.

 

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