Russia ended a five-month diplomatic freeze with Ukraine yesterday as new ambassador Mikhail Zurabov arrived in Kiev to present his credentials. The new friendliness is the result of the Jan. 17 election that dealt a crushing blow to anti-Russian president Viktor Yushchenko and set the stage for a run-off that will bring to power either Prime Minisiter Yulia Tymoshenko or former prime minister Viktor Yanukovych, who have both promised better relations with the Kremlin. The Russians are keeping a lower profile this time, though:
Moscow's satisfaction with his demise is tempered by a wariness that
its influence can go only so far, analysts say. Wary of another
backlash, Russian leaders refrained from endorsing any candidate in
January's first round of voting, while making it clear they could not
work with Mr. Yushchenko, The Kremlin instructed Russian television
networks to air balanced coverage of the race.
"Russia should be very happy that this strong anti-Russian trend in
Ukraine is over," said Sergei Markov, a member of parliament from the
ruling United Russia Party who observed the Jan. 17 election. "But I
wouldn't call it a feeling of triumph. The mood is more cautious."
With Mr. Yanukovych back from disgrace and running again, the
Kremlin cultivated both him and Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia
Tymoshenko, the Orange heroine who later turned against Mr. Yushchenko.
She finished second to Mr. Yanukovych earlier this month and will face
him in the runoff.
In November, Mr. Putin praised Ms. Tymoshenko's work as prime
minister after striking a deal with her on gas prices. Later he denied
favoring her candidacy and noted that United Russia is allied with Mr.
Yanukovych's Party of Regions.
It seems to me that Russia would probably be better off with Yanukovych who, as Samuel Charap wrote this month, is less likely to be able to form a solid governing coalition and would be a weaker leader in Ukraine's fractious political landscape. He also draws most of his support from Russian-speaking voters.
As everyone knows, one-time Orange Revolution heroine Tymoshenko is more than capable of playing the Ukrainian nationalist card when it's convenient and with a wider base of support, might be more likely to resist Russian influence. Russia has had trouble holding on to even the best of friends recently and Tymoshenko doesn't seem like the most reliable of allies.
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