Saturday, December 26, 2009 - 2:20 PM
Poor Nigeria. As if it didn't already have a terrible reputation, the alleged terror attempt by a 23-year-old Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab yesterday on a flight from Amsterdam to Detriot seals the deal. But as you're reading the news, a few caveats to remember:
First, much of the information coming out about the suspect's origin comes from the Nigerian newspaper This Day. While often a good source of initial information, this report probably shouldn't be taken as fact without other confirmation. The press in Nigeria, while vibrant, growing, and home to countless incredible journalists, has still been known to exagerate or assume at times. I have no reason to believe that is the case this time, but skepticism is warranted.
Second, if the suspect does indeed come from a family of means, as his residence in London suggests (forgive a generalization, but anyone who is anyone in Nigeria has got a house in London), it says much about where the real terror "threat" is (and is not) coming from in Nigeria. Security analysts have been worrying about Nigeria since the Sept 11. attacks -- fearing that this about half-Muslim country of 140 million people would be a potential host to extremists. But at the end of the day, something that I've learned about Nigeria is that it takes money and connections to get things done. Just think back to the violence earlier this summer by the Boko Haram sect. The mostly-impoverished members of the group raised hell in the local context ... but that was it. Taking "jihad" international from Nigeria is still a long ways and a lot of financing off (if it is on the way at all).
Which brings me to one more point about extremism in Nigeria. Much of the religious violence that the country has seen in recent years has been less about religion and more about a country rife with corruption and wanting for institutions. When sharia law was introduced in the North earlier this decade, most analysts believe that it had more to do with a desire for the law -- any law -- to function. Since the secular government had failed for years, many sought refuge in the laws of religious fundamentalism.
And that brings us back to the alleged terrorist in questioning today. His grievances are different from these, one might imagine, since the lack of rule of law often works in favor of (rather than against) the elite. In short, what I'm trying to say is that there are two different phenomena going on here: mass dissatisfaction among many impoverished in the country's Muslim North, and the different brand of extremism that would incite a well-off 23-year-old to blow up a plane in Detroit.
Finally, in the time that I've written this blog post, I have recieved several requests from news agencies and papers to help me connect them with reporters in Nigeria. An unfortunate reminder that the press in my former-resident country is drying up. And with each correspondent that leaves, it is trickier and trickier to piece together developments that unfold. For the last two years, editors have asked me why Nigeria matters. Case and point.
EXPLORE:AFRICA, EUROPE, NORTH AMERICA, AL QAEDA, BORDERS, CORRUPTION, INTELLIGENCE, MEDIA, TERRORISM
Excellent post, thoughtful and informative as always.
It breaks my heart that there is not a livelier comment culture here at Passport -- your posts are consistently higher quality than those anywhere else in the 'sphere. We'll have to see what we can do about that in 2010.
Not really what I was looking for
Thought Passport would have had more up-to-date analysis on this attempted terrorist attack and not such a detailed analysis on the political and extremist culture of Nigeria. While interesting, does not seem very related to the attack anymore as NYT and other major news sources are reporting the attacker originated from Yemen.
Waitaminute...I thought terrorism and terrorists were a product of poverty and repression due to evil US domination; our elites has assured of this for years now...yet, all these terrorists seem to be rich kids from lives of luxury...
Oh well, when reality conflicts with leftism, we all know leftists never let that get in their way...
This is all very interesting from a comparative politics standpoint, but all in all, what does Nigeria tell us about religious fundamentalism in general? The answer is not very much. All of the problems mentioned in this post (government corruption, the marginalization of Muslims, political and economic inequality) are associated with a rise in terrorism and political violence. This is not exactly a new phenomenon. Just take a look at other states grappling with the same conflicting situation:
1) Yemen- a nation that is quickly transforming into a failed state. The lack of administrative authority and the increase in poverty have given the Al'Qaeda network an ample space to operate on the Arabian Peninsula. Distracted by the Houthi insurgency to the North and the succesionist movement in the south, Yemeni authorities are simply too busy to focus exclusively on AQ activity.
2) Iraq- Despite improvements, Iraqi Sunnis are still widely unemployed and highly alienated by Maliki's Shia-dominated government. Not a great thing for stemming violence on the streets which could turn ugly
3) Afghanistan- Drug cultivation, Karzai corruption, and a resurgent Taliban complicate U.S. efforts to shut down AQ in the country to the best of their ability.
4) Somalia- Pretty simple...famine + anarchy + desperation = increased recruitment for AQ
5) Pakistan- Just look at the headlines
With these cases cited, how is Nigeria any different. Political extremism in Nigeria still results from the same old causes.
http://depetris.wordpress.com
It seems to me that the first concern for America is dealing with the terrorist watch list/no fly list. With a political partisan twist, the Bush era resulted in 10s of 1000s of people stuffed on the watch list with few reasonable or intelligent analyses or criteria to weed out redundancies, mistakes, etc. This rendered the list less effective.
As for violence against America, this is known because America is currently the world's sole imperial power that is engagine wars against Muslims and Muslim self determination throughout the world.
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