A World Bank research
paper posted today finds that countries with a high proportion of young
males with low levels of secondary education are significantly more conflict-prone.
The combination of these "youth bulges" and low rates of secondary education is
especially likely to lead to conflict in low- and middle-income countries, the
authors also report. The findings focus particularly on Sub-Saharan Africa, as "the
continent with the largest youth cohorts and the lowest levels of male secondary
education, scoring on average nearly 30 percentage points lower than the world
average."
Countries outside of the region also call for concern. In Syria,
for example, males 14 years old and younger make up nearly 20 percent of the
population. Only 39.1 percent of secondary school-aged students are enrolled in
school, making it the 101st lowest-ranking country of 135 surveyed. In the long run, Syria is facing
declining oil production and rapid population growth - a recipe for violent
unrest.
The policy implications are clear. Programs that focus on
primary education, like the U.N.'s Education
for All and Millennium
Development Goals programs are important (after all, students have to read and write before they can pursue secondary schooling), but there must
be more support for programs like the World Bank's own Secondary
Education in Africa initiative.
The total cost of a secondary education in Kenya is estimated at $6,865.
A 2007 Oxfam report
found that on average a "war, civil war, or insurgency shrinks an African economy
by 15 percent," and conflict causes the continent to lose about $18 billion a
year. You do the math.
Photo: SONIA ROLLEY/AFP/Getty Images
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