Did Obama accomplish anything in Moscow?

Tue, 07/07/2009 - 9:36am

I agree with my FP colleague Chris Brose that U.S.-Russia cooperation in containing Iran's nuclear program is unlikely any time soon, though I don't really see what harm there is in continuing the lobby for it. The Kremlin has its own quarrels with Tehran and may one day -- like China with North Korea -- come around to the view that the aggressive regime to the south is more trouble than it's worth.

I also think that Chris is a bit too quick to dismiss the two diplomatic achievements of the current talks, the reduction in nuclear arsenals and the opening of Russian airpace for U.S. operations in Afghanistan. Yes, the nukes that the U.S. and Russia will have after the cuts could still "annihilate the world several times over" but surely we have to start somewhere. The greenhouse gas reductions in the currently being debated climate bill probably won't be enough to offset the worst effects of global warming, but it allows U.S. negotiators to show up in Copenhagen with a legitimate achievement under their belt. Same goes for next year's Nonproliferation Treaty review conference.

As for the airspace, it's true that the U.S. probably wants to avoid dependence on Russia's good will in Afghanistan. But it's not exactly like there are a lot of great options in the region of Afghanistan. Given that the U.S. is already working with such reliable partners as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, it certainly seems prudent to look for other options. 

So while the disagreements remain sizeable, I wouldn't be quite so quick to dismiss the breakthroughs that were made on some critical issues and the potential for progress on others. 

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Backing Us into a Corner?

For generations, American political scientists and historians followed the minutia of politics among the Moscow elite to try to break through the opaque workings of the Kremlin. Today, Kremlinologists basically tell us what we already know. What Medvedev and Putin want from the U.S. (their own Great Power sphere of influence in the non-Baltic, former Soviet space) and are willing to do in return (stop spoiling the party in the Middle East) is clear.

What is less certain are the intentions of the White House.

It's from the American perspective that Obama's Moscow visit is such an ambiguous accomplishment. He cashed in his one chip (arms control) and walked away with an airspace agreement that, as you point out, is no small thing. The main disappointment is that we didn't learn anything more about Obama's plan for long term reconciliation between Russia and the United States. Is he just making noise about Bush's missile defense program, or does he actually intend to institute it? Will he direct the U.S. to back off Russia in Eastern Europe in order to gain Russian support in the Middle East?

The longer the White House waits to unveil its Russia strategy, the greater the risk of being backed into the corner of responding to the next major act by Moscow. That situation would naturally be disadvantageous for America.