Then again, maybe they won't*

Posted By Blake Hounshell Thursday, June 11, 2009 - 11:55 AM Share

Apropos of John Bolton's op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal, asking "What If Israel Strikes Iran?" here's a persuasive prebuttal from CFR analyst Steven Cook:

Every three weeks or so, within a few hours of one Israeli leader or another making a statement about the threat of Iran's nuclear program, my phone starts lighting up. It's never the press, which has become inured to Israel's periodic warnings. Rather, it is nervous hedge fund managers and securities research analysts calling to find out if this is "it." Are the Israelis on the verge of attacking Iran's nuclear facilities? No doubt, should Israel launch airstrikes against the Bushehr reactor or the uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, it would be a market-shaking event. "No," I assure the financial whiz kids on the other end of the line, explaining that "if Israel's leaders were going to strike, they would not be broadcasting it to the world." The phone will then go quiet for a few weeks until the next time Shimon Peres, Ehud Barak, Benjamin Netanyahu, an Israeli security consultant, or my cousin Ari warns that time is running out.

Read the rest.

*Free subscription to ForeignPolicy.com for the reader who gets this reference.

EXPLORE:MIDDLE EAST, IRAN, ISRAEL/PALESTINE, NUKES

(6)

HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE

MARIOBONIFACIO@YAHOO.COM

12:01 PM ET

June 11, 2009

It's pretty similar to the title of a Judy Blume book from the 70s "Then Again, Maybe I Won't"

BLAKE HOUNSHELL

12:06 PM ET

June 11, 2009

winner!

12:16 PM ET

June 11, 2009

I thought it was from Stripes...guess not.

MARIOBONIFACIO@YAHOO.COM

8:10 AM ET

June 12, 2009

So...about that prize... ;)

BLUECANARY

12:55 PM ET

June 11, 2009

Following WMD for urgent sale

Ahead of the presidential election in Iran, a Port Louis weapons broker, on behalf of a foreign government, is reported as offering for urgent sale the following WMD

1187 No. Tellar-Ulam 1 megaton thermonuclear fission bombs &

520 No. Jericho III High Impact ballistic missiles c/w nuclear warheads

which are now surplus to requirements.

Best cash offer over US$ 2.5m FOB will be accepted

Bids sought immediately for immediate delivery by FedEX

Successful bidder will be also entitled to receive 1000 complimentary cluster bombs plus 22 type F16 aircraft delivered FOC with main shipment

Note: no pre-qualification necessary

COURTNEYME109

3:50 PM ET

June 11, 2009

Bolton rebutted Cook

Actually, Dr Cook's bit came out first - Dr Bolton's bit seemed to bring a timeless meaning to General Clark's "Winning Modern Wars" about trashing certain regimes quick time.

"And there's nothing they do about it"

Passport, FP’s flagship blog, brings you news and hidden angles on the biggest stories of the day, as well as insights and under-the-radar gems from around the world.