The bombing of the prominent Pearl Continental Hotel in Peshawar on Tuesday was, of course, meant to do damage. But on top of the immediate casualties, the psychological blow to Peshawar's people, and the symbolic attack on U.S. involvement in Pakistan (the U.S. government is said to have been in talks to use the hotel as a consulate) -- there's a perhaps even more deadly consequence that will play out in the days ahead: The bombing might prevent help from getting to the near 3 million displaced people who have fled their homes in recent weeks. And that could be good news for Pakistan's bad guys.

First a bit of background. When the Pakistani government began its offensive against Taliban militants in the Swat Valley last month, it warned civilians to get out of the way. And it's not hard to see why. The military has used heavy artillery, air fire, and other military tactics to "flush out" the bad guys. It's unclear if they've gotten any of the Taliban's top leadership, but what they have gotten is a homegrown refugee crisis. "After Rwanda, this is the largest movement of people [in the world]," International Crisis Group analyst Samina Ahmed told me.

What's unique about this refugee crisis is that 80 to 90 percent are not living in the camps the UNHCR is desperately trying to erect. They're living in the homes of strangers. Ahmed, who was recently in the area, recounts 30 to 40 people staying in a single room. These hosts have opened their homes for now, but their resources won't last forever. Ahmed believes that it will be at least a full year -- after the winter passes -- that the displaced will be able to return home. So, the hosts are going to need a lot of help caring for their unexpected guests.

Here's where the Peshawar bombing comes into play. The Pearl Continental housed many U.N. agencies -- including UNHCR. And just as the Islamabad bombings shut down the capital city this year, the Peshawar blast risks the same. If international staffs (understandably) go on high alert, they won't be going out to the displaced camps and host family homes. They won't be overseeing an aid operation on the scale that the situation demands -- or at best, they will have to do so indirectly.

That's very very bad news for many reasons -- not least, Pakistan's attempts to root out the Taliban. Ahmed and other analysts worry that the displaced will be a prime target for jihadi groups' recruitment in coming months as anger, resentment, and desperation among the refugees grows. Absent international and government help, no doubt militants will fill the void. Says Ahmed, "The jihadi groups already have food, ambulances, medical stations -- and they're promising salvation all in one."

Paula Bronstein/Getty Images

EXPLORE:PAKISTAN, TERRORISM
 

A DUOIST

1:56 AM ET

June 10, 2009

Peshawar bombing

Pakistan has been a 'bomb-a-month' nation for years, regardless of which fanatic straps on the explosive or who drives the vehicle. With such endemic hate born of tribalism and the weld of ideology with theology, why not simply concede the two Waziristan provinces to the jihadists for their caliphate mountain paradise and sequester them in the mountains they love?

When are we ever going to learn that the nation-state in the 21C has found a new enemy it cannot defeat: the non-state terrorist who spurns money, seeks no capital city to conquer, no army to defeat, no government it wants to control. We surrounded the Soviet Union until its collapse; why not invite all jihadists to their own country and then simply surround it? Pakistan could use a break in the monthly carnage.

 

SAAD KHAN

9:08 AM ET

June 10, 2009

Pakistan is in a mess

That country really is. The weak and corrupt government is unable to control the activities of rouge elements. If it fails, chances of which are higher, then the international community has to take a more stern action.
http://proamericanmuslims.wordpress.com/

 

KENNETH SORENSEN

2:51 AM ET

June 11, 2009

America and its ruling elite has a huge responsibility

The ideologic elite that governs America has been aiding and abaiting Pakistan to launch this offensive, so we must never forget that every single American have the ultimate responsibility for that 3 million people now have been displaced. Without the foul attack on Taliban's heartland in the south of Aghanistan (to where they retreated following air bombardments on their forward positions in Oct/Nov 2001) in 2005 -- from 2006 under the command of NATO -- there woiuld be no displacements of 3 millions Pakistanis now. Make no mistake about it! It is absolutely essential that Americans -- while they are sitting in their comfy homes easting their dougnuts -- understand that ultimately they -- through their elected government -- are ultimately responsible for these poor peoples plight.

 

KENNETH SORENSEN

3:01 AM ET

June 11, 2009

FAQ

You say: What have attacks in Aghanistan in 2005-06 got to do with Pakistanis being displaced in 2008-09?

Reply: That it should be necessary to pose this question show the fog through which Americans views foreign affairs.

 

MINNIEB9

4:44 PM ET

June 11, 2009

Talibun/AQ targetting Khoja Ismaili

Peshawar bombing at the second hotel owned by Shia tycoon Sadruddin Hashwani shows that Talibun/AQ are systematically targetting Shia entrepreneurs, especially one as prominent as Hashoo group.

He has vast interests in hotels, has travelled to Iran to sign an MoU for hotels there and has interests in Oil.

What USA cannot figure out is how to intervene in an anti Shia war, without annoying their Saud buddies.

The signs are not good at all.

Pouring USA taxpayer money into Pakistan military and ISI ensures that it goes to anti Shia forces.

Khoja Ismaili groups have no fortrightness to confront Tablighi hatred toward them. This lack of fortrightness and failure to assert the ascendancy of the Fatimate is costing them dearly already.

Faith in the Fatimate will be rewarded, failure to affirm it is failure to themselves. This is the sad tragedy.

USA policy has to confront that Saud Islam is misogynist and exclusionary, whereas Shia Islam is embracing and inclusionary even though many decades of reactionary ayatollahs and more recently ballistically unstable Iranian presidency may have given the opposite view. It is a real pity. What a terrible waste and destruction.

 

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