Will Japan go nuclear?

Mon, 05/25/2009 - 9:43am

If you were the prime minister of Japan, what would be on your mind right now, given that North Korea had just tested a nuclear device that reportedly had the explosive power  of the bomb dropped on Nagasaki?

My guess is you'd be looking into the possibility of Japan's becoming a nuclear  power as soon as possible. Already, North Korea's ballistic missile tests had been unsettling folks in Tokyo. Hawks in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party have been questioning Japan's pacifistic constitution for years, and they are proposing that the Japanese military be allowed to launch pre-emptive strikes against North Korea.

"Japan should have the ability to strike enemy bases within the scope of its defence-oriented policy, in order not to sit and wait for death," an LDP committee's proposal reads.

This incident is, in a way, a political gift to Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso, who has long taken a tough line on North Korea. He's bound to take advantage of the nuclear test to put some more distance between the LDP and the opposition Democratic Party, which has been steadily gaining strength ahead of general elections that are expected for later this year.

Japan going nuclear would not please the Chinese, and it could inspire Taiwan to revive its own nuclear dreams. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

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Japan going nuclear would be

by moneyinabox on Mon, 05/25/2009 - 10:06am

Japan going nuclear would be terrible for the region. China would go absolutely bonkers. I can't see Taiwan jumping on the bandwagon as it seems like the KMT is quickly understanding the value of not working with the mainland. Instead Japan should let Beijing know that they need to take a much more pro-active role in getting it's ally under control or that it would indeed go nuclear. I think that simple threat alone would be enough to see China step up to its regional responsibilities.

Nuclear Japan

by jgarzik on Mon, 05/25/2009 - 10:34am

Maybe not Taiwan, but I could see Japan acquiring nukes if there was a sudden "everyone else is doing it" rush to acquire nukes, and a willing arms dealer existed.

NPT's rapid collapse

by jgarzik on Mon, 05/25/2009 - 10:23am

Short of invasion, what can realistically be done to avoid Iran or North Korea acquiring a nuke? Nothing, for both NoKo and Iran well know that a nuclear device is a major bargaining chip, a major international status symbol.

Post-Iraq, it seems like any consensus for political violence (war) is absent, if it ever existed, even in blatant presence of a nuclear weapon.

Iran and North Korea are both militarily and politically difficult to attack. Sanction regimes, the traditional carrot-and-stick, appear ineffective. The ever-rumored Israeli attack on Iran seems unlikely to induce Iranian regime change, or reduce Iranian desire for nuclear capability.

Therefore, it seems likely that Iran and North Korea will gain nukes while avoiding war.

Given that, other nations will move rapidly to acquire nuclear capability of their own. Iran and NoKo will join Israel, India and Pakistan as political cover for many nation-states to develop or acquire nuclear technology.

I could even see the Russians moving in to exploit such a situation, by playing arms dealer to a willing world. If the USA won't sell nuclear technology to the Middle East, Russia will. Iran was merely the first customer of Russia Arms, Inc.

Much appears to hinge on Russian willingness with regards to Iran... but even a best case scenario would only slow, not stop, the march of nuclear progress.

Obama insures the rapid

by blue13326 on Mon, 05/25/2009 - 11:21am

Obama insures the rapid proliferation of nuclear weapons. His weakness means no one can rely any longer on the US, and getting nukes is one way to offset this. By the time he is out of office, there will be at least 10-12 more nuclear weapon states.

Weakness?

by jgarzik on Mon, 05/25/2009 - 11:45am

It does not seem like the US or NATO has the military or monetary capability to sustain a third war (or 4th) war.

The last underground nuclear

by NJZimmermann on Mon, 05/25/2009 - 12:45pm

The last underground nuclear test conducted by Democratic People's Republic of Korea demonstrates that they have clearly made progress in developing their nuclear program. Its unrestrained efforts may raise red flags within both Russia and the PRC especially, if Japan were to begin developing a nuclear program.

Developments like these may provoke a military responses from both the PRC and Russia in order to prevent a nuclear arms race between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Japan

Will Japan go nuclear?

by simplesimon on Mon, 05/25/2009 - 6:30pm

It shall be clear to US more than anybody else that North Korea is and will continue to blackmail US to get more and more foreign aid. Clinton’s appeasement policy and Bush’s confrontational policy has failed to stop North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Everyone knows that North Korea’s lifeline passes through Beijing. Only way to stop this continuing North Korean blackmail is for Obama administration to encourage Japan to go nuclear. If and when China hollers against it, US has to demand that China reign in on its client state if China wants non-nuclear East Asia. That is only leverage that will work against North Korea.

simplesimon, I like the way

by Virgil Tibbs on Mon, 05/25/2009 - 9:23pm

simplesimon, I like the way you think - that's playing hardball!

Is China so desperate to have an ally in the region (even such a poor one) that it will maintain the status quo?

Realistically, how would NK react to a strike on Yongbyon? It would be no kind of solution of course, perhaps merely an escalation. Personally, I think they would just take it. Kim Jong-Il isn't as crazy as he wants us to think. Freaky, but not crazy.

SK strike?

by jgarzik on Mon, 05/25/2009 - 11:15pm

One oft-mentioned fear is that any attack on North Korea will induce a retaliatory attack against South Korea.

Obvious,but will we notice?

by arvay on Tue, 05/26/2009 - 9:11am

. . . that Iran has similar motivation for developing nuclear weapons that Japan has?

Especially now that Israeli voters have elected a government equivalent to Cheney as president and John Bolton as War (aka Defense) Department chief? Bound to set off an arms race, destabilizing.

But in the Mideast, we're blaming a nation that's reacting, not the instigator.

Maybe the administration will prove me wrong by threatening Japan with sanctions and demand that they stop enriching nuclear fuel.

Everyone shoul have nukes.

by tomjen469 on Wed, 05/27/2009 - 7:36pm

I think all countries should have nukes. After all, if a country has nukes "enemies" will think twice before launching attacks. If Iraq had them, the US wouldn't have invaded them.