For the record, Lord Nicholas Stern thinks his famous handiwork, the 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, was a bit off. Or rather, its projections were underestimates.
Three
years ago Stern's report galvanized international attention with its
main findings: that addressing climate change sooner would cost far
less waiting until later. But in a speech last Thursday in Oxford, UK, he noted that economics is a dismally flawed science - forecasting tools aren't yet up to the task of modeling scenarios involving the scale and uncertainty of climate change. "Looking back," he said, "I think we actually under-did the story."
Stern
is known in Britain alternately as Mr. Climate Change and Lord Climate
Change. It's always struck me that the man responsible for putting
climate change squarely into mainstream international debate was not a
scientist, a politician, an advocate, a poet, a celebrity, or a writer,
but an economist. (Until recently, Stern served as economics advisor
under both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, and before that at the World
Bank.) While most economists have lately fallen out of public favor,
Stern seems an exception.
These
days he's trying hard not to be a doom and gloom guy. Rather than
envisioning future catastrophes, he's focusing now on how to build the
political alliances necessary to find workable ways forward. His speech
coincides with the release of his new book: A Blueprint for a Safer Planet.
Aside
from stressing that the crucial question now is how to get developing
nations(read: China) on board in Copenhagen - any deal must be
"efficient and equitable," he noted - Stern's main point was that
predicting and accepting doomsday could well be a self-fulfilling
prophecy: "Collective pessimism about our inability to act will deliver
an inability to act."
So
what will holding global C02 levels to a livable level cost -- and who
will pay? On the first question, Stern estimates about $2 trillion. On
the second,well, that remains the big unknown.
Jens Nørgaard Larsen/AFP/Getty Images
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