Crime doesn't pay THAT much

Posted By Joshua Keating Tuesday, March 17, 2009 - 2:01 PM Share

Mark Gimein of our sister site The Big Money takes a look at the math that earned Sinaloa drug lord Joquin Guzman a spot on Forbes' billionaires list and finds it unconvincing:

The magazine does give you some back-of-the-envelope calculations. According to Forbes' Guzman blurb, "Mexican and Colombian drug traffickers brought in $18 billion to $39 billion in wholesale cocaine shipments to the United States last year. Guzman's organization took in, by Forbes' estimate, 20 percent of that—which makes for $3.6 billion to $7.8 billion in revenues. That's a good start. But then Forbes punts, saying simply that that's "enough for him to have pocketed $1 billion over the course of his career and earn a spot on the billionaire's list for the first time."
Well, maybe. With assassinations going at several thousand dollars a pop, and the costs of security and the like, you'd think that Guzman's expenses are substantial—even considering that his earnings are tax-free. And however much money Guzman has managed to pocket, we can assume that a fair amount has been spent. Knowing you might die any day of the week doesn't exactly encourage thrifty habits. Our first thought was to turn to Forbes for a little bit more explanation. We weren't expecting a dollar-by-dollar accounting. But it seemed like if you're going to put a number out there, you might be able to divulge at least a general sense of how to value an international drug-trafficking business. No such luck. In fact, the response we got to our query from Forbes spokeswoman Monie Begley is short enough that we can reprint it in full:
"Thanks for your inquiry. The Forbes methodology is proprietary." That's it. Not much to go on, is it?

Gimein comes with a few estimates for Guzman's wealth using different models but even the most generous calculations don't give him much more than $200 million. Still not too shabby.

EXPLORE:BUSINESS, DRUGS & CRIME, MEDIA

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