What will Bashir do next?

Wed, 03/04/2009 - 12:45pm

Congratulations Omar al-Bashir! You have just been indicted by the International Criminal Court on five counts of crimes against humanity and two counts of war crimes. You are the first sitting head of state to be wanted for arrest. Human rights groups, and even the ICC-skeptical United States, applaud the announcement. What are you going to do next?

There are two broad possibilities for how things might unfold. For the first time in history, the world will get to watch how a sitting head of state reacts to such damning charges.

First, there is defiance, and retaliation. The outcomes that Sudan watchers have feared are now on the table in the central African country. As the International Crisis Group writes in a statement today: 

Bashir’s regime has already issued veiled threats against the UN and AU missions in Sudan, the international humanitarian agencies operating there and Sudanese who support the ICC prosecution. It could also direct, or encourage, violence against the millions of displaced Darfuris living in camps in the war-torn region. There are signs that it may also declare a state of emergency and clamp down on internal political opposition, to show the Darfur rebel groups that they will not be able to use this development to their military and political advantage.

It could get ugly. In the worst-case scenario, experts see Bashir consolidating his power, kicking out aid workers, stepping up repression in Darfur, and even squashing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the North and South signed just a few years ago.

But then again, as Luis Moreno Ocampo, the court's prosecutor, told FP just a few weeks ago, "For people in Darfur, nothing could be worse [than it is now]." Justice, at least, puts pressure on Bashir's upper cadre, and shows the people of Sudan that their leader is no longer immune. Negotiations with Darfur rebel groups, which were reopened on Feb. 17, will have to find a new interlocuter, says Ocampo. But that could be a good thing.

Overnight, the stakes have changed in Sudan. Justice looks possible, impuntity looks over, and internal unrest looks likely. What next?

Elizabeth Dickinson | Permalink | | Comments? Login or register
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Weren't Milosevic and Taylor

by mlrocap on Wed, 03/04/2009 - 2:12pm

Weren't Milosevic and Taylor also sitting Heads of State when they were prosecuted? Beshir would then "only" be the first to be indicted by the ICC.

Yes

by jedo on Thu, 03/05/2009 - 2:05am

Milosevic was head of state when he was indicted for crimes in Kosovo in 1999 http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/europe/9905/27/kosovo.milosevic.04/

Taylor was indicted by the Special Court for Sierra Leone while a sitting head of state.

Answer: retaliate against the helpless

by arvay on Thu, 03/05/2009 - 8:42am

This ICC "warrant' is the worst kind of feel-good posturing that harms the refugees, gives its sponsors a world stage, and offers absolutely no chance that Sudan will alter its policies.

Ronald Reagan was far more effective arming the "contras" than this meaningless ICC onanism.

If France had any gonads, they'd supply the rebels with advanced weapons and training, including shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles, land mines, light artillery and fast, machine-gun equipped Toyota trucks, and then after a year the Sudanese would be willing to talk, I'd bet.

These would be defensive weapons, able to protect refugees but not sufficient to tip the balance in the civil war. Ring refugee camps with land mines, shoot down attacking helicopters and jets, provide enough force to repel infantry attacks. The first time the Janjaweed rode over land mines, they'd be some re-thinking in Khartoum.

Why France? France gets enough energy from nuclear power that it doesn't need to prostrate itself in front of the Sudanese. And it would give that sawed-off blabbermouth President something useful to accomplish.