Morning Brief: An olive branch to Russia

The olive branch to Russia is long over due. Stiff arming them as we have in the past has only worked to our disadvantage. The West's centuries-long policy of isolating or disregarding Russia (as we still do today) has bred a new animosity within the Russian consciousness that is dangerous for us and them. Our continual policy to disregard their concerns has led directly to Georgia's bold (if not irresponsible) attempt to take back their provinces, and the gas crisis between Ukraine and Russia that left Europe in the cold. Right or wrong, they are not a power that can simply be disregarded. One would think (and hope the Russians think the same) that more bilateral cooperation would be to their advantage politically and economically. We in the West need to ask ourselves if it is really imperative to add several more nations to NATO, or unilaterally allow the independence of a province like Kosovo, rather than working within a larger framework of cooperation. There could be a lot of advantage in a North American, European, Russian alliance on many of the world's issues.

Russia is pushing for the US to reopen its embassy in Tehran, something that should have happened years ago. Russia thinks the IAEA can monitor Iranian nuclear fuels to ensure no diversion takes place. Obama will have to follow that line because Bush blew the opportunity to engage with Iran in 2003 and head off any Iranian enrichment of uranium.

By all means, the US and the EU need to accept Hamas as a fact on the ground. Obama should make clear he sees the Saudi peace plan as the only way forward over the long term, meaning Israel needs to get out of the West Bank and the Golan Heights.

Is the Obama administration really rethinking the current global security architecture, which comes straight from the Cold War era? And as a constitutive element of this, is the new American President really decided to make a u-turn in the relationship between Russia and USA? Vice President Joe Biden, at the Munich Security Conference, said “it is time to press the reset button” between Moscow and Washington. That’s a realistic approach. But beyond good willing words, it is obvious that the Obama administration has not yet a full and integrated foreign policy plan, to replace the black Bush’s heritage. Perhaps, it is too early for such a plan, but there are already some alarming symptoms: US’s position on deploying anti-missile defense in Europe remains. Not a word about replacing START I, which expires this year. And, most disappointing of all, US continue to support Georgia’s ambitions to join NATO, as a reward to war criminal Saakashvili for his aggression against South Ossetia and for the destabilization of the whole Caucasus region.

Obama is now facing a complicated reality. Geopolitics is not that easy, as an electoral rhetoric. The new American President has repeatedly underlined that the war in Afghanistan is his first priority. Now, after Kyrgyzstan’s decision to close the American air base in Manas, he is dealing with a hard problem: In what way will he transfer soldiers and carry ammunition to Afghanistan? Which skyway and air corridor, will he use for that continual and critical operation? The solution has only one name: the Russian Federation. Obama needs Russia to win the war against Taliban’s rebellious army. Moscow has already offered its help and full cooperation. But it is more than certain that there is implicitness: A package deal, on bilateral relations and on fundamentally new global security architecture. Obama has no choice but to abandon the antirussian strategy planned by Bush’s neo-conservatives, in order to win his «first priority antiterrorist war». Anti-missile defense in Europe, NATO’s expansion to the East and support to Georgia’s NATO candidacy, should be history. That’s the only way for Obama to succeed in his top foreign policy goal and to build a safer future for the whole world.

(www.whitebook2008.com)