Some cheerless speculation on Iraq

I don't have much to add to the commentary, here and elsewhere, about Barack Obama's speech on Iraq Friday. It's probably impossible to know for sure whether his withdrawal plan will work; any number of things could go wrong between now and 2011.

Still, I'll hazard some predictions. Over the next few years, I doubt most Americans will pay much attention to Iraq -- most of the U.S. media has already packed up and left for Afghanistan or other big stories. Meanwhile, Iraq will look better from the outside than it does from within. I expect a growing authoritarian trend as oil prices recover and the central government in Baghdad consolidates its power. There will probably be a lot of ugly, anti-democratic stuff going on behind the scenes that won't get covered in U.S. newspapers, and definitely won't be seen on television.

Iraq, unfortunately, will continue to suffer from the ethnosectarian cleavages and resource curses that have plagued it since its birth. It will probably not be a successful, modern democracy within our lifetimes. Hopefully, life will become more tolerable for its citizens nonetheless.

All of this, of course, is just speculation on my part. Iraq's future remains deeply uncertain.

One thing, however, is clear: Obama appears to have gotten the U.S. domestic politics of withdrawing from Iraq just about right. When else are you going to find Douglas Feith and Jessica Mathews agreeing on something?