Tuesday Map: Osama bin Laden's current location

That $27 million in reward money would certainly help pay off my student loans...

Obama should pull a Clinton and send cruise missiles into the target with a ten mile radius of destruction.

That would be a carpet bombing or a couple of nukes. Either way, the message would be clear.

It's kind of like what Obamsama said about the stimulus package, targeted, transparent, and what ever..........

Ok, great work Sherlock - now let's assume he actually hides somewhere we can't get at him - Saudi Arabia.

Why do the areas of probability remain uniform as they transit bodies of water? Are we to consider that OBL might just as well be hiding on board a vessel in the Indian Ocean as somwhere in Yemen? This map is bogus!

I saw the professor last night on TV. Interesting discussion but I think the model fails in one huge respect. The model is based on tracking endangered species and the assumption that they have to remain close to where they were last sighted due to climate, food sources, ... . That is a reasonable assumption for an endangered species. OBL is not endangered, he is hunted. There is a huge difference between the two. By definition an endangered species can only live in a small area -- that is why they are endangered. A human can live anywhere on earth. The Professor picked Parachinar because it is close to the last believed location of OBL, which was Tora Bora six years ago and an endangered species has to stay close to its last sighted position.

So, I am not sure the model is transferable but if it is there are two assumptions inherent in the analysis that lower its confidence level.

First, that OBL needs the annominity of a medium to large city to assist him in remaining hidden. That is a useful assumption but it is no more than that.

A second assumption is that he needs to be in a city so he can have electricity for his dialysis machine to work. Again a useful assumption but it belies the fact that OBL could use a generator or divert electricity from the grid to a cave he is holed up in somewhere.

Then again the Professor could be on to something here. On Sunday the CIA hit the Kurran area of Pakistan with two or three missiles for the first time. Not sure if they hit Parachinar but timing is everything.

All that being said, if I were a CT guy, I would probably want to peek over those walls and into those compounds, just because.

Following are the details of the alleged structures:

Structure A: Building of a Govt. Secondary School
Structure B: Probably Jail
Structure C: A community centre comprising a single room, a big hall for a considerable number of people to gather, no confinements.

Among the other 16 structures include the building of a District Headquarter Hospital, A Hostel of a Degree College, A Public Stadium (suitable for the Dialysis addict diabetic to play day night cricket) and three buildings of Schools plus some homes.

The professor has no knowledge of the cultural, religious and political status of the town or the countryside but he does mension:

within a region that has a similar physical environment and cultural composition (that is, similar religious and political beliefs).

It is for general information that the cultural (Religious and Political) beliefs in Parachinar are totally different from Taliban, Al-Qaeda and Osama.

The Professor further says:

most likely in the town of Parachinar which gave shelter to a larger number of Mujahedin during the 1980s

In fact the Parachinar community has resisted the movement of terrorists in all forms and menifestations, Petro-dollors sponsored Mujahideens, Taliban or Al-Qaeda. Reference to B. Raman work on the Kurram Crisis in a series of papers:

There were three major Shia-Sunni clashes in the Agency in 1983, 1988 and 1996, which resulted in the deaths of a total of 1,200 persons belonging to both the sects.

There was a recrudescence of the violence in April, 2007, after a gap of 11 years. For nearly three weeks from April 6, 2007, the Kurram Agency became the scene of a no-holds barred jihad waged by the local Shias and Sunnis against each other

Addressing the media at the Peshawar Press Club on April 9, 2007, Mast Gul,warned the Pakistan Army that if it did not take effective action against the Shias, he would appeal to the Sunnis in the other parts of Pakistan and in Jammu and Kashmir to come to Kurram and help the local Sunnis.

Mast Gul used to belong to the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), which is a founding member of Osama bin Laden’s International Islamic Front (IIF) formed in 1998. He used to operate in J&K till 1995. He and his followers were responsible for the burning down of the Islamic holy shrine at Charar-e-Sharief in J&K in 1995.

During the present fighting, the Shias have been hitting back at Al Qaeda and Taliban elements with considerable effectiveness.

Now with these facts, washington DC will be more safe for Osama than Parachinar where the people would execute him on the spot if captured.

Now coming to the characteristics:

1. The town is located on a border in a vally that forms the upper bassins of the tributeries of Kurram Agency. For these reasons every house will have a fortified structure and well inside tree canapies.

2. The high growth rate of the area and the custom of large combined family residing in a single enclosure will make every house containing at least 5 rooms and double stories. The average family size 10 with range %-25 persons.

3. The people maintain privacy as a part of their culture therefore the walls should be high enough to cover the two storie building.
4.People make their homes not in accordance with their physical heights. How would a woman of 6' change her new home after marrying a 5'5" man.

5. Electricity to the city remained suspended for more than 3 months in the last year

“There is an acute shortage of medicines, food, electricity and water,” B. Raman

That would mean hit each and every house in Parachnar.