Rwanda's arrest yesterday of Laurent Nkunda surprised everyone -- journalists, analysts, and even UN Special Envoy to the Congo conflict, Olusegun Obasanjo. Just last month, Nkunda -- a rebel leader wreaking havoc
on the Democratic Republic of Congo -- was pretty cozy with the Rwanda. Now, the same country is detaining him. Awkward..?
What happened? Rwanda's change-of-heart may have come from good old diplomatic pressure, forcing them into a devil's bargain.
Nkunda had long found backing for his cause by pronouncing himself the protectorate of Congo's ethnic Tutsis, the same group that suffered the Rwandan genocide and now holds power in Kigali under President Paul Kagame. It was true that Hutu militias from the genocide fled Rwanda into Congo, where they are still armed and dangerous. For a while, Nkunda and the Hutu militias maintained a violent status quo.
But then Nkunda went too far. The rebel leader's Fall of fighting and promises to topple the Congolese government couldn't stay off the radar in a country where nearly 20,000 peacekeepers are deployed. Donors have spent millions organizing elections and funding peacekeepers in the wartorn country. Then, in December, a UN report released found that country let
Nkunda's forces operate unimpeded on the Rwandan side of the Rwanda-Congolese
border. Weapons shipments, uniforms, and even Rwandan soldiers were
dedicated to Nkunda's cause.
It
was damning evidence for a Rwandan regime that relies almost exclusively
on foreign aid. "The UN report really embarassed Rwanda," Michael
Kavanagh, a journalist who has followed the DR Congo for half a
decade, told me. Diplomats put the pressure on, and Rwanda faced a decision: give up Nkunda or give up your honeymoon on the donor recipient stage.
Their choice will suit Congo watchers well. With Nkunda gone, his fighters have promised to fold into the national army. Rwanda gets its own reward as well; Congo -- which has long backed those Hutu militias to keep Nkunda down -- is finally going after them in a joint mission with its neighbor.
"But the coming days could be very nasty," warns Kavanagh, who is on his way back to the DR Congo. If Rwanda and Congo do go after them, the Hutu militias "kill civilians on purpose, anytime they feel threatened." The Nkunda bargain may yet be written in blood.
Photo: ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP/Getty Images
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