If you're looking for job security, you probably don’t want to run for prime minister of Japan. Prime Minister Taro Aso’s government is once again under
threat, following former Japanese minister Yoshimi Watanabe’s resignation from
the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed Japan with few interruptions since
1955. Watanabe's move comes at a time when Prime Minister Taro Aso is
experiencing levels of unpopularity that would shock even President Bush, with
approval ratings below 20 percent.
Ever since 2006, Japan
has seen a revolving door of Prime Ministers. Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda
each held the top position for about a year before anemic approval ratings, LDP
electoral losses, and legislative paralysis forced them from office. Watanabe’s
maneuver is meant to force Aso to call snap elections, instead of waiting for
the general elections scheduled for September.
A group of Watanabe-led LDP legislators could join the opposition
in blocking legislation in the lower house of Parliament, paralyzing Aso's
ability to govern. If he succeeds, Prime
Minister Aso will likely follow the path of his two successors.
The legacy of Junichiro Koizumi, who served as Japan's Prime Minister from 2001 to
2006, weighs heavily on his successors. Japanese politics had historically been
controlled by Japan's
traditional political families working within the internal factions of the LDP;
Koizumi changed all that by taking his case directly to the Japanese
voters. With Japan's preeminent status in Asia threatened by an enduring
economic recession and China's rising power, none of the post-Koizumi leaders
have been able to gain the public's trust in a similar way.
"Koizumi was
committed to serious, structural reforms, and no other Prime Minister has made
that sort of connection with the Japanese public," the New America
Foundation's Steve Clemons told me.
The good news is that Japan's
opposition is gaining enough strength to challenge the LDP, which could mean a
new crop of leaders and ideas. Faced with a daunting set of challenges, that
could be exactly what Japan
needs.
Photo: Kiyoshi Ota/Getty Images
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