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Ahmadinejad vs. Khamenei?
Though Iran's leadership has maintained its verbal assault against Israel for its invasion of Gaza, they have also made sure that their rhetoric does not lead to a violence by Iranian citizens. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stepped in yesterday to ban hardline students who had volunteered to serve as suicide bombers from traveling to Israel. Over 70,000 students had apparently signed up to serve, rallied by exhortations from President Ahmadinejad's hardline allies. This has led some to speculate about the existence of a rift between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei.
Not so fast. Ahmadinejad might be reckless, but there is no evidence that he sincerely desired tens of thousands of Iranian suicide bombers to descend on Israel -- a step that would virtually guarantee a war with Israel and the United States.
"[The situation in Gaza] is embarassing to Iran," Carnegie Endowment fellow Karim Sadjadpour told me. "Despite paying lip service to its Palestinian allies, it can really do nothing." Like Khamenei, Ahmadinejad likely encouraged widespread protests in Iran and the exhortations to fight Israel as a symbolic resistance, rather than a serious battle plan.
That is not to say that Ahmadinejad enjoys Khamenei's unyielding support. The deteriorating economic situation has damaged Ahmadinejad's domestic popularity, a fact not lost on Khamenei. Sadjadpour characterized the relationship between the two Iranian leaders as a "master-student relationship."
Ahmadinejad owed much of his success in the 2005 presidential election to Khamenei's support. Khamenei can quietly swing elections through his influence over the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the Basij -- a volunteer paramilitary corps -- or disqualify potential presidential candidates through the Council of Guardians. As the Iranian presidential elections approach, analysts will be looking very carefully for which way this most important Iranian voter is leaning.
BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP/Getty Images













Ahmadinejad and the veteran generation
Good post David, but I'd quibble with the idea that Khamenei can pull rank quite that easily.
With the rise of Ahmadinejad, there was lots of talk about a new political force coming of age in the domestic Iranian political sphere: namely, veterans of the Iraq/Iran war and other military-affiliated interest groups. Formerly, the political ecosystem was seen as made up of devout mullah-types, revolutionary-types, public-sector types, etc. Ahmadinejad who is a populist above all else, was the first to pol represent the "veteran generation," which bears a certain resentment for the chin-stroking theologians, and builds its solidarity on having spilled blood for the Islamic Republic. Therefore I wouldn't be so quick to assume Khamenei can command the full allegiance of the Basij, even though he may pull their strings institutionally. I'm not at all trying to say Khamenei doesn't outrank Ahmadinead in every way that matters, I just suspect that Ahmadinejad's base may be more loyal than we think.
re: the "veteran generation"
This news (70,000 student
This news (70,000 student signatures) is not a new incident. and like the previous ones this news is not valid, or at least not accurate! Because its hard to believe that, (first) they were students, and (second) they were 70,000! Iran's media declares 10 of thousand of protectors as millions! so it's safe to decrease this number to 700! But this is not the issue, the point is they knew they were never going to go to Israel and kill themselves! You should consider this fact when analyzing Iranians' behavior!
All those (future) students! knew the end game in advance. so why did they do that? first, because of the rent it provides them to enroll in the best universities without taking the necessary and highly competitive entrance exams! all universities should assign extra capacity to Active Besiege members! Second, also this is part of their job as "Active Members of Besiege" to make noise now and then, they are being well paid for it. Third, the election is getting closer and some bullying of the rival candidates is needed, especially when there is not enough money to run a campaign like the one in 2005, and these incidents are actually warm ups for several pressure groups that will be formed in the coming months to attack campaign offices. one can think about these incidents as Job Fairs! these guys are selling themselves to go different cities inside Iran not to Israel.
One last word, If there was a minor doubt in the minds of these guys, that they would actually being asked to do a suicide attack, not a single of them would've shown up! A suicide nucleus does not form in a situation where the person is well paid and has a good hope for the future. It needs an environment that makes people so nihilist. If there is any suicidal thought in some Iranian mind, that would be in the mind of a desperate opposition and it would be plan to attack the Iranian government!
not going anywhere
Hello great post and discussion on this. I agree that Tehran is not serious about sending suicide bombers to Israel nor are the ‘volunteers’ serious about going. This is a ritual that dates back to the mass mobilization efforts to send volunteers to the front during the Iran-Iraq war. The difference is that today it is a ritualized public performance rather than a serious commitment. These types of announcements of thousands of volunteers have signed up to go fight X enemy come up often in a number of contexts and are not unique to Iran. There was a similar story out of Afghanistan just the other day. have posted more on this here:
http://willward.wordpress.com/2009/01/11/about-those-70000-iranian-martyrs/