Israel is all tactics and no strategy

You either wake up so early or go to bed so late, Blake

Glenn Greenwald asks an interesting question and I wonder what do you think about it: (from Andrew Sullivan's blog)

"Is there any other significant issue in American political life, besides Israel, where (a) citizens split almost evenly in their views, yet (b) the leaders of both parties adopt identical lockstep positions which leave half of the citizenry with no real voice? More notably still, is there any other position, besides Israel, where (a) a party's voters overwhelmingly embrace one position (Israel should not have attacked Gaza) but (b) that party's leadership unanimously embraces the exact opposite position (Israel was absolutely right to attack Gaza and the U.S. must support Israel unequivocally)? Does that happen with any other issue?"

Mr. Hounshell,

I might accuse you of the same thing. There are tactics in your criticism, but no strategy. It is a short term criticism that does not take the long term in to account.

Isreal cannot wip out Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups -- I'll just call them HHO from here on -- who are dedicated to the destrcution of Isreal, right? Certainly not my military means. This kind of attack and the recent Lebanon war are not going to end HHO. Targetted assassination doesn't work either. These are not cult of personalities, whose head can be chopped off. Isreal can keep killing the #2 guy in an HHO, and the HHO will get a new #2.

In fact, military stuff like this is just fodder for these HHO's propaganda and recruitment. That's part of your point, right?

Well, what else might Isreal do to wipe out these HHOs as effective anti-Isreal organizations?

The occupation of Gaza and the West Bank are major issues, and truly valid reasons for a people to revolt against the occupiers. If Isreal wants to end the HHOs as threats, Isreal should pull out of Gaza, for example.

Oh, wait. Isreal did. And what did that do to/for the HHOs? Did that wipe out Gaza or make it less popular? Of course not. (Isreal had to pull out of Gaza and they have to pull out of the West Bank. Isreal has the moral obligation to allow the Palestinians to form their own independent state. No question there.)

So, what can Isreal do about these groups? Have you got an idea that hasn't been disproven by the events of the past?

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Let's try looking at this from the other side. Why do these HHOs exist?

There is a group of relatively poor and powerless people, and they need to believe that someone is responsible for their plight. Whether it is true or not, they need someone to blame, and someone to hate. There are lots of reasons, historical and current, for the plight of the Palestinians, but the one HHO leaders focus on is Isreal. It's an easier story, and one with historical resonance.

So, what will happen if Palestine gets fully established and builds and economy? Willl the HHOs cease to exist as effective anti-Isreal forces?

* We know that they can exist without the sanction of the empowered government. That's a historical fact.

* We know that there will always be relatively powerless and relatively poor people in Gaza. By defintion, some will always be at the low end by local standards.

* Therefore we know that there will always be bitter people who feel screwed who need someone to blame.

* We know that hate mongers will always be glad to recruit from those who feel screwed.

* Obviously, no one is going to forget about how bad Isreal has been to the Palestinian people in the past.

What does this add up to? Well, I think that Isreal is doomed to have HHOs around, doing their violent anti-Isreal stuff from time to time.

***As long as there are Palestians who feel screwed in their lot in life and Isreal is right there next to Palestine, these HHOs will continue their attacks.***

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So, given this dynamic, what should Isreal do?

Right now, no one is questioning that the rocket attacks are happening. No one is questioning whether the HHO is working from or hiding within densely populated areas with lots of non-combatants around them. These are the facts on the ground.

The criticism is that what Isreal is doing does not help, long term. What Isreal is doing is not in its long term interests.

I argue that there is nothing Isreal can do to end the HHOs. So, when it comes to its down defense, it can just take the attacks (not gonna happen), re-occupy so it can do house-to-house searches (hopefully, not going to happen), or take out the current HHO installations without occupying.

If the local government is not going to take out the HHOs, Isreal must defend itself. The government has an obligation to its people do something. And if the local government sponors, is responsible for is even IS the HHO, then Isreal must act against it.

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This is not like Iraq. This is not some foreign country half a world away who never was a real threat. This is a neighbor who is currently engaged in attacking Isreal. This is not a war of choice. Isreal is reacting to attacks.

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There is a huge disproportion here. The number of Gazans wounded or killed is exponentially more than the number of Isrealis wounded or killed. It looks incredibly uneven.

But the moral calculus someone involves relative body counts, it certainly does not depend on how Isrealis were ACTUALLY wounded or killed. If you want to go there, the correct numbers would be how many WOULD be killed or wounded if Isreal did nothing. That is the right baseline. Everything gets compared to that. If Isreal did nothing, what would happen?

And then we get to the really really nasty part. Isreal has an obligation to its own citizens that is greater than its obligation to others. I don't know what the balance is -- and Aaron Sorkin addressed this on The West Wing -- but the lives of your own people matter more than the lives of other people. It's ugly, it's nasty, and I don't like it. But when a government acts, or is thinking about acting, that's how it works.

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So, there is no good or bad action, no good or bad forbearance, that will end the HHOs.

Isreal has an obligation to defend its people, in the short term even if it can't assure their defense in the long term.

What would you have Isreal do?

The flaw, I think, in your thinking is that you think that there is a path that leads to the end of HHOs and peaceful existance for Isreal and its neighbors. But if you are wrong there, then the whole thing looks different. What Isreal ought or ought not to do looks different.

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My answer? Well, I'm glad you asked.

1) The US should committ to spending an ENORMOUS amount of money. Maybe 1/10 of what we've spent in Iraq.

2) The US should give Montana to the Isrealis. It's HUGE, and we really aren't using it very well.

3) The US should pay to move the Wailing Wall and whatever else is so important to Montona. Brick by brick, put it together actually as it is now, but in Montana. Expensive? Sure. This ain't gonna be cheap.

4) This should be a standing offer, and all US support and trade with Isreal should be cut off until Isreal gets out of there.

The new state of Isreal should be away from the Middle East. There is no peaceful future there for Isreal. There is nothing it can do to get a peaceful future, and its existance there allows Arab governments to distract their people from their own repression and failures.

But barring that kind of thing? Well, what should Isreal do, other than say, "Don't fuck with Isreal?"

Sam,

Leadership is not just doing what your followers think is best. (Another West Wing idea, about how if the polls did not support the administrations preferred position then the administration had not convinced the public *yet*.)

It is easy for people who don't necessarily think long or hand about an issue to have any number of opinions. But responsiblity and knowledge has a way of causing opinions to converge a suprising amount of the time. Not always, of course.

So, the leaders of both parties know how the American public would react if they acted as half* of the American people say that want Isreal to act. They know that they'd be voted out of office in an heartbeat. And they know that reaction would not be entirely foolish, either And knowing this, they know that the Isreali leadership HAS to take action against HHOs, in part as political necessity, and in part as an absolute governmental responsibility.

(Remember, there is no compromise with HHOs. Their goal is not independency or sovreinty, but rather the elimination of the state of Isreal.)

*Of course, I don't know that Sullivan is right about an even split in the views of the American people. It's hard to poll on an issue when most people get less than a headline about what's going on.

Sir,

don't drink and write...

dbadger,

your moral equivalence of Hamas terrorist acts (to my knowledge they are not men in uniform explicitly fighting another army. They are terrorists who, when things get tough, hide in crowded places full of women and children and then go to cnn to cry because of the "humanitarian crisis") and Israel is stunning, but know surprising given the world we live in.

Israel will not wait to have its citizens killed to have a substantial response and it's fighting Hamas as a proxy to a much bigger war. Everyone knows that Hamas couldn't care less about the "Palestinians" (whatever that means. It seems to me that the term "Palestinian" has only acquired sense as an opposition to state of Israel).

The sole purpose of Hamas is the destruction of Israel. They are not interested in peace and they don't care how many innocent "Palestinian" women or children will die. In fact, the more the better for their propaganda purposes. It is Israel that has to worry about civilian casualties on both sides, isn't it amazing?

But Hamas is not alone in its purpose (who gives weapons, training, etc to Hamas?), and Israel, knowing this, is fighting to the last consequences for its existence.

PS- If Hamas wanted peace if could use its power (they were ELECTED to GOVERN) to build political support and improve the infra-structure in Palestine. Instead, they smuggle weapons, build tunnels and impose Sharia law. That doesn't sound very peaceful to me...

"You point out that palestinians don't like israelis and therefore israelis must kill them"

well, worthless seems to be your interpretation of what I wrote... I am not going to repeat myself. The worst blind is the one who doesn't want to see.

You only repeat the Hamas talking points. YOu don't tackle any of the points I raised.

I question what Hamas has ever done for "Palestinians" (well, some from the "resistance" are very well. Just look at Suha Arafat, a real fighter for the "Palestinian cause"... ).

Israel is protecting its population against terrorists. In the long-term it is also protecting Palestinians who really want to sit down and negotiate, and not explore and waste innocent people's lives.

Here is an example of how compassionate Hamas is on its own people...

I don't come to this blog very often...

J Thomas, I don't care if the Sharia Law is passed or not. The intention is there, as the link you sent demonstrate

"There is an effort to draft a penal code based on shari‘a and this is a significant development on many grounds. The pro-Hamas press in Gaza has reported on an effort to develop a new Palestinian criminal code based on Islamic law"

so regardless of its passing or not this is just more evidence of what Hamas is doing with the power given to them by the "Palestinian" people.

As for your equivalence between the "evilness" of Hamas and Israel, well, I really don't have the patience to discuss that. If you think that is the case, that's fine by me (you're are not alone, by the way).

By I would argue that Israel has protected its people, created a democratic State in which individual freedom is granted. In other words, by attacking an enemy who has vowed to wipe Israel out of the map (with the support of Iran) Israel is protecting its own citizens as it should.

Hamas has never done something similar (and never will), on the contrary, the "brave fighters" are now dressing up as nurses and doctors to avoid being caught by the Israelis... (oh, so corageous).

PS- sir, there's no need for propaganda againts Hamas. They make it themselves. What is surprising is the number of people who fall for them.