Russia: I think you better recognize

Mon, 08/25/2008 - 3:24pm
Abkhazian flagSouth Ossetian flag

Russia's State Duma unanimously approved a resolution today to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the breakaway regions of Georgia, as independent states. This move has been hinted at for months but obviously, as RIA-Novosti observes, "the Georgian-Russian conflict has dramatically changed the position of the self-proclaimed republics."

President Medvedev still has to approve the resolution, but it's not too early to consider the implications of Russia's recognition. This development seems to be the best indication so far that the dreaded Kosovo effect -- the emboldening of separatist movements around the world in the wake of Kosovo's recognition -- was more than just hype. This was exactly what the Georgians had in mind when they decided not to recognize Kosovo last winter.

While U.N. membership for the two new states is about as likely as Putin and Saakashvili taking a fishing trip this fall, it will be interesting to see if any countries follow Russia's lead and recognize them. Recognition has historically had much more to do with politics than international law and it's quite possible that countries hoping to curry favor with the Russians --Belarus and Venezuela come to mind -- might set up ties with the de facto states. Analyst Paul Goble believes 15 to 20 countries might join in, hardly an international consensus but still enough to avoid a "Cyprus scenario" where the states would be recognized by only one other country.

This month's events have given some other frozen conflict participants pause as well. Medvedev was leaning pretty hard on Moldova's president this weekend, urging him not to repeat the "Georgian mistake" by trying to retake control of the quasi-independent Transnistria region, which is tepidly supported by Russia. The Moldovans seem to have gotten the message and I wouldn't be surprised if Moscow continued to use the former Soviet Union's separatist movements for political leverage. (Crimea, perhaps?)

Let the recognition wars begin.

Joshua Keating | Permalink | | Comments? Login or register
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"At this moment, I would

by sutrostyle on Tue, 08/26/2008 - 3:41am
"At this moment, I would consider pure idiocy if NATO were trying to rearm Saakashvili because this guy will obviously lose any hypothetical future conflict with Russia, with a possible (but not guaranteed) exception of a full-scale world war. By his adventures, Saakashvili has already wasted USD 2 billion in the conflict (more than 1 month of his country's GDP) but only a very stupid person could repeat a similar mistake again. (Russia has adopted the usual American nuclear doctrine, the right for preemptive nuclear strikes, half a year ago, and the fear of nuclear weapons has dropped dramatically since the 1980s, so we should better be careful.) NATO should stop provoking Russia in this obvious fashion and accept that Georgia continues to be a Russian backyard, a status it has enjoyed for centuries, much like e.g. South America is the U.S. backyard closed from the European powers, according to the 1823 Monroe doctrine. NATO needs Russia for many projects, including logistics for the war in Afghanistan. Cutting links with Russia could mean a defeat in Afghanistan, among many other things; Russia wouldn't care, it's ready to break all the ties. Meanwhile, Iran can do whatever it can because people are looking elsewhere. Moreover, Russia is being pushed closer to Iran which is bad. In the U.S., it is apparently an example of bipartisan political correctness to be against Russia, and to assume that the U.S. can do anything in the Russian sphere of influence. This silly consensus is, of course, primarily created by the manipulative, dishonest media, and hundreds of millions of stupid people who uncritically believe what they read. They may be shocked by reality. And indeed, they should be. ;-)" from http://motls.blogspot.com/2008/08/russian-parliament-backs-independence.html#links