Sort of. At least that's the takeaway from a just-released Gallup poll of the former Soviet republic of Georgia, which found that more Georgians would like to see Arizona Sen. John McCain (23%) elected U.S. president than Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (15%):
It's worth noting that "don't know" still carries the day in this survey, conducted in June 2008, of 1,080 adults aged 15 and older. As Gallup's Neli Esipova observes, it's surprising just how little interest Georgians evince in the U.S. presidential campaign, given how important American military and diplomatic support is to that country. Still, an outright majority of Georgians believe it "makes a difference" who is the commander in chief:
This poll was conducted before the fighting broke out in August, so it will be interesting to see whether public opinion has since shifted in any way.
I'm also surprised McCain's margin isn't higher. The Arizona senator has taken a decidedly pro-Georgian, anti-Russian line in his public comments, and he even went jet-skiing with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in August 2006. The two men have been friendly since 1997. Saakashvili cited McCain's comment that "Today, we are all Georgians" in a speech in Tbilisi on August 12. And McCain's chief foreign-policy advisor, Randy Scheunemann, was a paid lobbyist for the Georgian government until last March.
I see two risks in this obviously close relationship. First, Saakashvili needs to avoid being seen as supporting one candidate over another. What if Obama wins and sees Saakashvili as having played partisan games? That scenario may explain why Georgia hastily invited Democratic Sen. Joseph Biden to Tbilisi last weekend after McCain announced that he was sending Sens. Joseph Lieberman and Lindsay Graham, his two main allies.
The second risk is, what if McCain wins but public opinion turns sharply against Saakashvili for blundering into war? The United States' image will surely suffer as a result. McCain needs to be careful about emphasizing support for Georgia the state rather than Saakashvili the man.
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