Syria and Russia renewing Cold War ties?

Wed, 08/20/2008 - 12:38pm
MLADEN ANTONOV/AFP/Getty Images

All the bluster of a "new Cold War" of late has been a bit much for my tastes. Recent developments in the Middle East, however, have been hard to ignore:

As Syria renews its Soviet-era close ties with Moscow, many here fear that the Middle East could once again become a theatre for the two great powers to exert their spheres of influence, militarily and politically, in the volatile region.

As Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visits Russia today seeking deals for new missile systems, he's been dutifully trumpeting the Kremlin's party line on Georgia. He accused the West of "total disinformation, distorting facts and attempts at international isolation" (and he would know a bit about international isolation) but also took aim at Israel's alleged role in the conflict in the Caucasus:

Moreover, the West and Israel continue to put pressure on Russia. ... I think that in Russia and in the world everyone is now aware of Israel's role and its military consultants in the Georgian crisis.

(Israel says its government does not sell arms to other countries but its private firms are free to do so.)

In the wake of recent indirect talks between Israel and Syria, it would be a shame for Russia's resurgance to ruin any potential progress. As an editorial in The Asia Times notes, the very same neoconservatives who want to escalate the showdown with Russia may be harming their interest in the security of Israel at the same time.

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This time its different

by meirja on Wed, 08/20/2008 - 3:39pm
It seems that President Assad who is a man who doesn't want to miss an opportunity. I guess he is doing what his father did for many years, by making Moscow a player to counter the Jerusalem/Washington alliance. But this time, as far as Russia threat to Israel is concerned, things are different. The level of investment between the two is much higher. Hundreds of thousands of Russian Jews live in Israel, and many more in Russia. This dependency alone will reduce the level of hostility. With Syria in dire financial situation, the Russians will be more careful to sell them expensive weaponry. Also, lets not forget that Russia depends on Europe for gas. Although the Europeans may not be spoilt for choice in terms of suppliers, they could also put the screws on Russia in terms of trade and technology transfer, if Moscow gives them a hard time. Meir Javedanfar Middle East Analyst www.MiddleEastAnalyst.com

it's instructive to note...

by papicek on Wed, 08/20/2008 - 7:40pm
that the mere mention of Russian ties to Syria is enough to make us question if we're witnessing a cold-war restart, though I admit, I've been wondering the same. I had a similar gut-check when I heard that Russia and Jordan are considering a collaboration on an RPG factory. Right next door to Iraq, where we've been largely successful in neutralizing the roadside IED threat. I've been trying, as I go along, to question this kind of gut response. Yet a comprehensive accounting of the course Russia charts for herself in the international system these days is now a priority.

Igor Ivanov, in his "The New Russian Diplomacy" speaks of the importance of continuity in a nation's foreign policy. Continuity indeed. A Russia that demands iron control over the small states on its borders is a foreign policy centuries old, perhaps for reasons that no longer apply.

It's a large question I'm in no ways qualified to answer. And given my continuing hopes that Russia may yet develop into a valued global partner, I may be unsuited to even make the attempt.

It's good for the US economy

by Don Bacon on Wed, 08/20/2008 - 10:28pm
US foreign military sales will exceed $50b this year, 3/4 to the Middle East. This will boost it -- more sales (financed, of course) to Israel and Lebanon, and the US is selling state-of-the-art Abrams tanks to Iraq, so the sales forecasts are rosy for the US as well as for Russia.