Russia: Georgia will lose South Ossetia

Fri, 08/15/2008 - 3:13pm
AFP/Getty Images

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said today, in no uncertain terms, that Georgia will lose South Ossetia. He also extended this forecast to the separatist enclave of Abkhazia, saying that it was "unlikely Ossetians and Abkhazians will ever be able to live together with Georgia in one state."

In fact, South Ossetia and Abkhazia have enjoyed de facto independence from Georgia for well over a decade, although international recognition has not followed. There are ethnic, religious and cultural differences between the two regions and Tbilisi that make unification impossible, even if the international community recognizes them as one country. Put bluntly, South Ossetians and Abkhazians hate Georgians and vice versa.

The key question moving forward, then, is not Georgia's role in the two regions, but Russia's. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov assured us in the Financial Times Tuesday that "Russia has no intention of annexing or occupying any part of Georgia and has again affirmed its respect for its sovereignty."

But in Russia's eyes, respect for the Georgian sovereignty still makes Abkhazia and South Ossetia fair game. Lavrov also notes that the majority of South Ossetia's people are Russian citizens, glossing over the fact that Moscow has been conveniently issuing South Ossetians Russian passports for years, making direct intervention in the region a necessity to "protect Russian citizens."

Seasoned Russia hand Strobe Talbott worries that the Kremlin might attempt to "Balkanize" the Caucasus, bringing the surrounding territories under Russian control in the same manner that Slobodan Milosevic tried to reunite the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s:

If [Lavrov] has given the world a glimpse of the Russian endgame, it's dangerous in its own right and in the precedent it would set. South Ossetia and Abkhazia might be set up as supposedly independent countries ("just like Kosovo," the Russians would say) -- but would in fact be satrapies of Russia."

Stay tuned.

Alex Ely | Permalink | | Comments? Login or register
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Losing Abkhazia and S. Ossetia

by jgarzik on Fri, 08/15/2008 - 3:26pm

Even with my reliably pro-American bias, I could see that both Abkhazia and South Ossetia were very unlikely to return to the status quo (Georgian territory, de facto independences).

The Georgian attacks on Ossetia pushed those citizens farther into the Russian camp. Months of Russian provocations are irrelevant [to S. Ossetians]. I think there is little question that the people in the disputed territories would vote against being a part of Georgia.

Thus, the problem:

  • One should defend the principle of territorial integrity, especially when that principle is violated by armed aggression.
  • However, in this case, defending that principle implies forcing a people somewhere they do not wish to be.

The Russians did not and do not care a whit about the Ossetians. But defense of Georgian territorial integrity implies the US does not, either.

Catch 22.

Jeff @ Armchair FP

dumb dumb dumb dumb

by kidzib on Sat, 08/16/2008 - 12:05pm
You dropped quite a whopper with this one, Alex: "There are ethnic, religious and cultural differences between the two regions and Tbilisi that make unification impossible, even if the international community recognizes them as one country. Put bluntly, South Ossetians and Abkhazians hate Georgians and vice versa." If ethnic, religious, and cultural differences plus mutual animosity were the standards for making unification impossible, most Asian and African states (not to mention a huge number of other states across the world) would be doomed. A healthy mix of consociation plus federalism with meaningful autonomy can make almost all societal segments able to cooperate effectively. Bosnia may have gotten it wrong, but Nigeria, Macedonia, and Ulster have all taken steps recently towards more constructive inter-segmental relations. Perhaps you meant "near impossible"? Nothing is truly impossible with concerted effort...

Don't forget history...

by tortmaster on Mon, 08/18/2008 - 2:57pm
One should always keep in mind that the Russians backed the militias that expulsed the majority Georgian population from Abkhazia in the early 1990's and, to a lesser extent, in South Ossetia as well. This is the culmination of a multi-decade plan that appears to be working out quite nicely for Russia and Comrade Putin. Bob Gibson