Turkey's top court announced today that the ruling AK Party of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not, in fact, violating the fiercely secular constitution. Instead, Erdogan got off with a warning and the party's state funding was cut in half. Six of 11 justices ruled against the AKP, but luckily for Erdogan, seven votes were required to give him the boot. Close call.
Political analysts everywhere breathed a sigh of relief, as did investors in Turkey's stock market. Interestingly, investors began to bet on Erdogan surviving before the decision was announced. Bloomberg reports:
Markets extended gains after court officials started admitting
journalists into the court building in Ankara pending an
announcement by court chief Hasim Kilic later today.
Loose lips sink short-sellers? In this case, it doesn't seem like insider trading is to blame. Newspapers had apparently been speculating for days that the AKP would win its case. But it sure would be interesting to see when the upward trend began vs. when the first rumors started to leak out in the press.
UPDATE: The Century Foundation's Jonathan Kolieb writes in with a clarification:
10 judges found them guilty of being in some sense anti-secularist. But only 6
voted to ban them. That is an interesting split. This really does put the
AKP on notice. Gives something to everyone, but everything to no one.
He also observes that, according to Today's Zaman, JPMorganChase told investors it was "80 percent sure" that the AKP would not be disbanded and that even if it were, it would stay in power. Interesting.
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